Belmont Fractions

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

Maybe he cost himself second losing the photo, but he wasn't running down Summer Bird today. He was much the best. He was checked/steadied 5-6 times down the backstretch, shuffled back to 9th, yet still rerallied to win. Horses rarely win with that kind of trip.

You can say numerically the pace was fast but the fact is the frontrunners never came back (they ran a close 2nd and a close 4th) so he had to make a decision and he went for it when he did. The ride wasn't terrible.

Good stuff, phil.

Summer Bird could have finished several lengths better than he did with a less eventful trip.

--Dunbar

[Storm Cadet]

But if Dunkirk runs a 25 and 50 opening split, instead of a 23/47 split, then does he still have enough punch left with the speed of the track carrying him to the win, staying ahead of Summer Bird? Why is nobody questioning the splits run by JV in a mile 1/2 race?

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Storm Cadet

But if Dunkirk runs a 25 and 50 opening split, instead of a 23/47 split, then does he still have enough punch left with the speed of the track carrying him to the win, staying ahead of Summer Bird? Why is nobody questioning the splits run by JV in a mile 1/2 race?

Probably because they are too focused on your avatar

[Storm Cadet]

BTW my avatar Britney Spears said to say hi to YOU!

Originally Posted by Storm Cadet

But if Dunkirk runs a 25 and 50 opening split, instead of a 23/47 split, then does he still have enough punch left with the speed of the track carrying him to the win, staying ahead of Summer Bird? Why is nobody questioning the splits run by JV in a mile 1/2 race?

The track was obviously fast
so personally I think those fractions are
a deceiving.
Dunkirk got a very good start
and was out there running very comfortably.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Storm Cadet

But if Dunkirk runs a 25 and 50 opening split, instead of a 23/47 split, then does he still have enough punch left with the speed of the track carrying him to the win, staying ahead of Summer Bird? Why is nobody questioning the splits run by JV in a mile 1/2 race?

The track was playing for speed all day and he looked comfortable doing it, I don't think it's advantageous to say horses of this caliber will go 25 and 50 and run better, a horse would be fighting a rider for 4 furlongs. In my opinion Summer Bird had the worst trip of the 3 horses yesterday. The results skew the criticisms after the race, majority of the times a horse that takes the lead at the top of the stretch as MTB did wins, if he won there wouldn't be any of this moved too soon debate, on the other hand it is very rare a horse passes 3 horses in the stretch to win the Belmont going away, at one point I thought Kent left him too much to do, but he wins and then all is well.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by CSC

The track was playing for speed all day and he looked comfortable doing it, I don't think it's advantageous to say horses of this caliber will go 25 and 50 and run better, a horse would be fighting a rider for 4 furlongs. In my opinion Summer Bird had the worst trip of the 3 horses yesterday. The results skew the criticisms after the race, majority of the times a horse that takes the lead at the top of the stretch as MTB did wins, if he won there wouldn't be any of this moved too soon debate, on the other hand it is very rare a horse passes 3 horses in the stretch to win the Belmont going away, at one point I thought Kent left him too much to do, but he wins and then all is well.

He moved too soon. Yeah, a horse rarely loses taking the lead at the top of the stretch, but again, how many of them had taken the lead running a sub 23 second 5th quarter? I don't care how fast the track is...that is too fast to last in a 12f race. I think it was a clear case of over-confidence by the jockey taking the horse out of what had made him jump up in class. All is always well when you win. Internal fractions did in Smarty Jones, Real Quiet and MTB yesterday. When Summer Bird was the only horse in the race remotely running the last furlong, I can come to no other conclusion that no matter what problems occurred in the trip, he was aided by them. It allowed him to finish the race when no other horse could yesterday.

[Bobby Fischer]

Dunkirk went wayyy too fast early. However he was at no disadvantage compared to the winner Summer Bird.

Summer Bird was only 4 lengths off the pace when they settled.
Those 4 lengths of better pace set-up were cancelled out to some degree by Dunkirk's saving every inch of ground and being on an "easy" lead.
In a 12 furlong race it is possible to go too fast AND be on an easy lead. (ulike say a mile race where if the horse is going too fast he is also going too fast to relax.)
The best initial pace set-up was Mine That Bird who was unable to keep that awesome position late.

and The best set-up of all horses for the entire race was...
drumroll plz.... LUV GOV. He really appreciated his set-up. Everybody went too fast and he got to run 5th as probably the worst horse in the race. He is a bet against hopefully vs. allowance company next out.

[Travis Stone]

The only horse with upside who truly figured to relish the added distance was Summer Bird, being the grinder that he is.

I don't blame anyone for playing the what if game... if Mine That Bird started his steady advance 1 1/2 furlongs later, I think we have at least a photo finish. But that's racing.

[CSC]

Funny how we all see it differently, I see it as if Kent D didn't get himself into a box causing him to check Summer Bird a few times down the backstretch and letting him run a little earlier within the horse's comfort zone, that 2 1/2 length win could have easily been 5 or more, even if MTB moved later as most seem to think he should have.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

Funny how we all see it differently, I see it as if Kent D didn't get himself into a box causing him to check Summer Bird a few times down the backstretch and letting him run a little earlier within the horse's comfort zone, that 2 1/2 length win could have easily been 5 or more, even if MTB moved later as most seem to think he should have.

You're kidding right? This horse will probably never get a better setup.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by CSC

The track was playing for speed all day and he looked comfortable doing it, I don't think it's advantageous to say horses of this caliber will go 25 and 50 and run better, a horse would be fighting a rider for 4 furlongs. In my opinion Summer Bird had the worst trip of the 3 horses yesterday. The results skew the criticisms after the race, majority of the times a horse that takes the lead at the top of the stretch as MTB did wins, if he won there wouldn't be any of this moved too soon debate, on the other hand it is very rare a horse passes 3 horses in the stretch to win the Belmont going away, at one point I thought Kent left him too much to do, but he wins and then all is well.

Summer Bird got a perfect set-up yesterday. The track at Belmont yesterday, as on Derby Day at Churchill, was not a speed biased race track; rather, the rail was golden. While Dunkirk was setting a strong pace, Summer Bird was covered up comfortably on the inside until the 3/8 pole, when Desormeaux tipped him out to make a well-timed run.

Based on his post-race comments, there is little doubt in my mind that an overconfident Borel moved prematurely with Mine That Bird. Also, for a guy who has made reputation for riding the rail at Churchill, this quote from Pat Forde's column on the ESPN site has got to go down as one of the all-timers:

Borel has made his name with rail-skimming rides and won both his Kentucky Derbies that way -- his ride on Mine That Bird was a ground-saving genius. Yet this time Borel was rarely near the rail, and when he made his move he was about four-wide on the turn.

He said afterward that the rail was dead, which made it a perilous place to run. But winner Summer Bird spent much of his trip down the backstretch far inside.

Perhaps if Borel had ridden a race on the Belmont undercard (instead of taking off his sole - albeit turf - mount), or even watched the races yesterday, he might not have reached such a foolish conclusion. I'm not saying that Mine That Bird would have won the race with a decent ride by Borel, but he was certainly hindered by his rider yesterday.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Summer Bird got a perfect set-up yesterday. The track at Belmont yesterday, as on Derby Day at Churchill, was not a speed biased race track; rather, the rail was golden. While Dunkirk was setting a strong pace, Summer Bird was covered up comfortably on the inside until the 3/8 pole, when Desormeaux tipped him out to make a well-timed run.

Based on his post-race comments, there is little doubt in my mind that an overconfident Borel moved prematurely with Mine That Bird. Also, for a guy who has made reputation for riding the rail at Churchill, this quote from Pat Forde's column on the ESPN site has got to go down as one of the all-timers:

Borel has made his name with rail-skimming rides and won both his Kentucky Derbies that way -- his ride on Mine That Bird was a ground-saving genius. Yet this time Borel was rarely near the rail, and when he made his move he was about four-wide on the turn.

He said afterward that the rail was dead, which made it a perilous place to run. But winner Summer Bird spent much of his trip down the backstretch far inside.

Perhaps if Borel had ridden a race on the Belmont undercard (instead of taking off his sole - albeit turf - mount), or even watched the races yesterday, he might not have reached such a foolish conclusion. I'm not saying that Mine That Bird would have won the race with a decent ride by Borel, but he was certainly hindered by his rider yesterday.

My opinion is if they ran the race 10 times same distance/same track. Summer Bird will always have the advantage, I don't think it's even close actually. Summer Bird is a 1 1/2 horse through and through, his runs are powerful sustained runs made for 1 1/2 and for Belmont whereas MTB's are short quick bursts probably maxed out at 1 1/4(he actually hung the last 1/16th in the Preak). I really don't get this argument that he could have beaten Summer Bird, I agree there's a slight chance it may have cost him 2nd but I actually think 3rd was a good result for him but there was no way he was the best horse this Belmont.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by CSC

My opinion is if they ran the race 10 times same distance/same track. Summer Bird will always have the advantage, I don't think it's even close actually. Summer Bird is a 1 1/2 horse through and through, his runs are powerful sustained runs made for 1 1/2 and for Belmont whereas MTB's are short quick bursts probably maxed out at 1 1/4(he actually hung the last 1/16th in the Preak). I really don't get this argument that he could have beaten Summer Bird, I agree there's a slight chance it may have cost him 2nd but I actually think 3rd was a good result for him but there was no way he was the best horse this Belmont.

I don't get the argument that he couldn't have beaten Summer Bird. The horse went 22.92 from a mile to 10 furlongs and then 26.36 from 10 furlongs home. You don't think if he sat in a more reasonable 24 seconds or even in 23.5 that he would have had tons more in the tank to go more than 26.36 for the final two furlongs?

[SniperSB23]

Just for comparison sake, the fractions from 8 to 10 furlongs for recent Belmont winners:

Da Tara - 25.25
Rags to Riches - ??? 24.0 ish
Jazil - 24.76
Afleet Alex - 25.64
Birdstone - 24.84
Empire Maker - 24.54

Anyone have Rags PPs in front of them to know how many lengths back she was at the mile?

I don't understand how people can look at those and not see how absurd the 22.92 was. Summer Bird and Dunkirk ran faster quarters there than any recent Belmont winner because of Calvin's ridiculous move.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't get the argument that he couldn't have beaten Summer Bird. The horse went 22.92 from a mile to 10 furlongs and then 26.36 from 10 furlongs home. You don't think if he sat in a more reasonable 24 seconds or even in 23.5 that he would have had tons more in the tank to go more than 26.36 for the final two furlongs?

I think Drugs addressed this yesterday and he is probably the best person here that can explain the raw numbers discussion so I am not even going to try, the problem with the 'if' scenario is we will never know, we will never know how fast he could have run from 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 on a lightning fast track, once again my opinion is he is not a 1 1/2 horse or certainly not as effective at a 1 1/4.

What we do know is that Summer Bird could have probably kept running another furlong or 2 if need be, he was the only horse that was not spent after the race, I do believe had Kent Gotten him out earlier he would made this discussion a mute-moot one. The horse was feeling so good, Kent had his hands full down the backstretch that no one talks about him running up on heels causing him to check/steady atleast twice by my count. It was hardly a perfect trip in my opinion just as it was not a bad trip either. He was simply the best horse for this type of race/track/distance.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Good stuff, phil.

Summer Bird could have finished several lengths better than he did with a less eventful trip.

--Dunbar

Really? I think you could look at it like it actually helped him. You could say the events of the trip, forced Desormeaux to be the most patient as the horse was very keen with the blinkers. The events of the trip kept him in check. This was the only horse running the last quarter. I don't believe that at all...several lengths better with a better trip. That's like saying MTB could have won the Derby by 15 lengths if he wasn't squeezed at the start. That's just as wrong....the start helped him that race.