Belmont Fractions

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I pretty much anticipated going in that Mine That Bird would be taken back - make his one big move - and hang because of the distance and lack of pace.

Does that mean I'd have been surprised if he had run an Afleet Alex kind of race and rated into a moderate pace for far longer than I believed he was capable of rating - no.

But it's much ado about what figured to happen going in.

The same thing with Real Quiet's Belmont move ... he made an insanely pre-mature move in the Kentucky Derby .. and ran according to Moss figures the fastest mile in the last 15 or so Derby's - which includes the years Congaree and UBS were clear after a mile through scorching fractions.. and RQ still managed to win the Derby at 10fs despite absolutely walking home the final quarter mile.

Hell, Real Quiet was even like a length in front of Indian Charlie after a mile in that Derby and had him put away with that move .. and IC was one crazy fast horse.

Was that really the type of horse who was supposed to be put to sleep for 10 and a half furlongs and wait around for Victory Gallop?

[Riot]

Did anybody else notice that Durkin called MTB in the wrong position?

Heading into the final turn, Durkin calls him as second to last, 7 lengths from the lead - but at that point the horse had already moved up during the previous two furlongs and was right up on the outside, 3-4 wide just a few lengths back and 5th or so at that point. I think he miscalled another horse as MTB.

[CSC]

Durkin? Sorry if this has already been mentioned but I am just catching up with all the posts today but did anyone catch the comment Jerry Bailey made before the race that had Borel rode MTB in the Preak and not Mike Smith, he would have won. Amazing frankness on Bailey's part citing Smith using the 4 path for much of the race and Borel would have used the rail.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by CSC

Durkin? Sorry if this has already been mentioned but I am just catching up with all the posts today but did anyone catch the comment Jerry Bailey made before the race that had Borel rode MTB in the Preak and not Mike Smith, he would have won. Amazing frankness on Bailey's part.

I thought that a bit silly - drawing a horse in blank places during a previous race and assuming it would have won?

But I was too shocked that ESPN-ABC chose to open the broadcast with a list of horses that never ran again after the Belmont and were retired, because the race is too taxing.

Hey, thanks for feeding right into the animal rights bozo mindset about how destructive racing is to it's stars, ESPN. Nice job. Gag.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Riot

I thought that a bit silly - drawing a horse in blank places during a previous race and assuming it would have won?

But I was too shocked that ESPN-ABC chose to open the broadcast with a list of horses that never ran again after the Belmont and were retired, because the race is too taxing.

Hey, thanks for feeding right into the animal rights bozo mindset about how destructive racing is to it's stars, ESPN. Nice job. Gag.

I never thought I would say this but I found myself missing Jim Mackay & Charlsie Cantey in the telecasts. On the Bailey comment, I wonder what Smith thought of it, he later tried to make ammends by saying Mike is a great rider, but that was obviously a little PR control. Everyone who knows racing knows Mike is ok but certainly not a great rider.

[philcski]

Maybe he cost himself second losing the photo, but he wasn't running down Summer Bird today. He was much the best. He was checked/steadied 5-6 times down the backstretch, shuffled back to 9th, yet still rerallied to win. Horses rarely win with that kind of trip.

You can say numerically the pace was fast but the fact is the frontrunners never came back (they ran a close 2nd and a close 4th) so he had to make a decision and he went for it when he did. The ride wasn't terrible.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by philcski

Maybe he cost himself second losing the photo, but he wasn't running down Summer Bird today. He was much the best. He was checked/steadied 5-6 times down the backstretch, shuffled back to 9th, yet still rerallied to win. Horses rarely win with that kind of trip.

well, that kind of trip kept him from running a sub 23 second 5th quarter. Which when you're 5 1/2 back at the mile mark run in 1:37.86 mile to leading at 2:01.66 is running a sub 23 second 5th quarter. I'm guessing horses rarely win with that kind of trip either in a 12f race. when you go sub 23 5th quarter...I agree, you ain't running anyone down. There ain't anyone left to run down...only get run over.

[hurricanefrank]

Originally Posted by philcski

Maybe he cost himself second losing the photo, but he wasn't running down Summer Bird today. He was much the best. He was checked/steadied 5-6 times down the backstretch, shuffled back to 9th, yet still rerallied to win. Horses rarely win with that kind of trip.

You can say numerically the pace was fast but the fact is the frontrunners never came back (they ran a close 2nd and a close 4th) so he had to make a decision and he went for it when he did. The ride wasn't terrible.

This is well stated. The best horse today won the Belmont. IMO MTB did precisely what I thought he'd do: run out of gas the final eighth.

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by philcski

Maybe he cost himself second losing the photo, but he wasn't running down Summer Bird today.

I was trying to beat the favorites, but double clutched and backed off on the other son of Grindstone.


I have many thoroughbred racing photos and art portraits in this room.

Summer Bird as best I calculate is a great great grandson of Secretariat, and also a great great grandson of Alydar. He has Northern Dancer on both sides, and of course the immediate connections to Kentucky Derby winners Grindstone and Unbridled.


Going way back, there is also Nashua and Mr. Prospector in the bloodline.

I wish I would have won my wager, but other than the money lost I have no problem with Summer Bird's win.

I'm not also 2nd guessing Borel's ride. He rode it as he saw it.

No tears necessary for the connections of Mine That Bird.

Winning the Kentucky Derby and hitting the board in all the Triple Crown races amounts to bragging rights for life.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

Maybe he cost himself second losing the photo, but he wasn't running down Summer Bird today. He was much the best. He was checked/steadied 5-6 times down the backstretch, shuffled back to 9th, yet still rerallied to win. Horses rarely win with that kind of trip.

You can say numerically the pace was fast but the fact is the frontrunners never came back (they ran a close 2nd and a close 4th) so he had to make a decision and he went for it when he did. The ride wasn't terrible.

Good stuff, phil.

Summer Bird could have finished several lengths better than he did with a less eventful trip.

--Dunbar

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by CSC

Durkin? Sorry if this has already been mentioned but I am just catching up with all the posts today but did anyone catch the comment Jerry Bailey made before the race that had Borel rode MTB in the Preak and not Mike Smith, he would have won. Amazing frankness on Bailey's part citing Smith using the 4 path for much of the race and Borel would have used the rail.

And really a dumb comment from Jerry Bailey too.
Smith saved ground around the first turn in the preakness. There wasn't room inside on the 2nd turn in the Preakness.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

And really a dumb comment from Jerry Bailey too.
Smith saved ground around the first turn in the preakness. There wasn't room inside on the 2nd turn in the Preakness.

My only problem with Mike's ride was he had to check/steady MTB at the top of the stretch causing him to lose abit of MO. Other than that speculating on a rider using the rail and winning is abit of a stretch but I can understand the argument, basically he was saying Borel would have saved ground and the result would have been alot closer, saying he would have won was abit over the top.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by CSC

My only problem with Mike's ride was he had to check/steady MTB at the top of the stretch causing him to lose abit of MO. Other than that speculating on a rider using the rail and winning is abit of a stretch but I can understand the argument, basically he was saying Borel would have saved ground and the result would have been alot closer, saying he would have won was abit over the top.

I agree with that.

The problem with putting blame on Mike Smith for getting to the rail was that Flying Private moved with him and took that path. There just wasn't room for 2 on the route that Flying Private took.

[Danzig]

i finally watched the race this evening after getting back from dinner and a movie (land of the lost, don't waste your time and money).
when i saw borel make his move i told my husband it was too soon. jocks ride this track like every other, but belmont is like no other in that you still have a quarter mile to go at that point.
borel rode the best horse in his mind, and i'm sure he thought the horse would duplicate his derby run, and fly by and win easy. so much for that thinking.

i wonder tho if now darley will be trying to buy birdstone.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by CSC

Durkin? Sorry if this has already been mentioned but I am just catching up with all the posts today but did anyone catch the comment Jerry Bailey made before the race that had Borel rode MTB in the Preak and not Mike Smith, he would have won. Amazing frankness on Bailey's part citing Smith using the 4 path for much of the race and Borel would have used the rail.

If your talking about the computer simulation of the Preakness about 10 minutes before the Belmont on ABC where they broke down each step of the Preakness in 3D. I thought it was more about the path taken as in rail trip (ala Borel) vs the weave Smith used. When you corrected the equation for momentum gained and lost. A rail trip would have beaten Rachel using the race she ran, Of course there is no way to know if Rachael had even a little more juice that would have allowed her to hang on. I just watched again on TiVo in the hotel here and thought this technology made Trakus look like the original electric football board games from the 70's you turned on like a light switch when you were a kid. You have to see it again it was actually pretty cool

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by CSC

Durkin? Sorry if this has already been mentioned but I am just catching up with all the posts today but did anyone catch the comment Jerry Bailey made before the race that had Borel rode MTB in the Preak and not Mike Smith, he would have won. Amazing frankness on Bailey's part citing Smith using the 4 path for much of the race and Borel would have used the rail.

Bailey is a comedian, but hey there is name recognition there.

A better question Bailey should have said after the race was if Smith had stayed on MTB for the Belmont would he have won the race, I know Borel is gods gift to riding and the fact he has been a so so rider in a small bond is just the breaks one gets, but Smith has one a couple races at Belmont, maybe even like 10 and he would not have made that move with a dead one run closer.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Bailey is a comedian, but hey there is name recognition there.

A better question Bailey should have said after the race was if Smith had stayed on MTB for the Belmont would he have won the race, I know Borel is gods gift to riding and the fact he has been a so so rider in a small bond is just the breaks one gets, but Smith has one a couple races at Belmont, maybe even like 10 and he would not have made that move with a dead one run closer.

I thought Bailey's comments was what you would want from an analyst, certainly you don't want someone coming on saying all the politically correct things...in essence having a love in with the horses and riders...when you look at the footage presented with his comments it made it more palatable. However if you are a Mike Smith fan you probably couldn't help but feel you were thrown under a train, to have someone say if Borel rode MTB in the Preak and that he would have won is something I feel is totally unfair.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I pretty much anticipated going in that Mine That Bird would be taken back - make his one big move - and hang because of the distance and lack of pace.

Does that mean I'd have been surprised if he had run an Afleet Alex kind of race and rated into a moderate pace for far longer than I believed he was capable of rating - no.

But it's much ado about what figured to happen going in.

The same thing with Real Quiet's Belmont move ... he made an insanely pre-mature move in the Kentucky Derby .. and ran according to Moss figures the fastest mile in the last 15 or so Derby's - which includes the years Congaree and UBS were clear after a mile through scorching fractions.. and RQ still managed to win the Derby at 10fs despite absolutely walking home the final quarter mile.

Hell, Real Quiet was even like a length in front of Indian Charlie after a mile in that Derby and had him put away with that move .. and IC was one crazy fast horse.

Was that really the type of horse who was supposed to be put to sleep for 10 and a half furlongs and wait around for Victory Gallop?

So do you not believe the fractions? If Mine that Bird really ran sub 23 from a mile to a mile and a quarter then that was amazing. You have to either acknowledge that or say the fractions are wrong. You're too intelligent to just sit there and pretend you don't know.

[letswastemoney]

I hope that we can enjoy Mine That Bird for years to come at a top level. He seems like a consistent horse that will regularly finish in the money if not win in G1 races for the rest of his career.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So do you not believe the fractions? If Mine that Bird really ran sub 23 from a mile to a mile and a quarter then that was amazing. You have to either acknowledge that or say the fractions are wrong. You're too intelligent to just sit there and pretend you don't know.

He's a horse that has repeatedly shown an amazing burst of speed the other two times he's used those tactics.

I think you're paying a little too much attention to the naked fractions though. The track was super fast. Munnings ran 1:20 3/5ths for crying out loud. Sixthirteen blew the break, was head and head with Fabulous Strike through 43.62 .. and was only beaten 7.25 lengths.

Forget about the naked fractions - Mine That Bird started a half length in front of SB after a mile and was 4 lengths in front of him after 10 furlongs - he basically ran 3.5 lengths faster .. which is like a half a second at that rapid rate of speed.

Summer Bird is a grinder - and he figured to own the final quarter mile of this race - and he did. Mine That Bird hung like rotten salami in the Sunland races and he didn't figure to relish the added quarter mile.

I picked Summer Bird to finish 2nd and I didn't pick Mine That Bird to finish in the top 4 in my selections.

Even though MTB is without a doubt a better horse than SB - I had this extremely bull headed view going in that MTB would probably run awful because of the pace and distance .. and SB would thrive because of those two things.

I think you basically are blaming Borel because he didn't do what Afleet Alex did in his Belmont. If I really thought Mine That Bird was capable of lagging back for 10 and half furlongs and unleashing his huge move in the stretch in a race at that distance - with that pace - wouldn't he be a total slam dunk cinch to win?

I mean, he'd be a genuine 2/5 shot!

I agree with you though - on tape - the ride looks as bad as Real Quiet's.