Belmont Fractions

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I know how the ride looked, and naked it looked like a poor ride, but I didn't have a big problem with it at all knowing the horse.

I have a problem with it. I don't care what the situation is. In almost all cases a move like this just doesn't work. There's always at least one horse that catches a break and gets a breather, not running when the others are, and is able to come on and last move those that ran before it. Happens daily in races all over the country, on all the different surfaces. You run too soon, you run out of gas sooner. Try this sometime. Get out there on a bike or in running shoes. Once you experience it first hand, you'll finally understand. Jocks keep doing this **** because it doesn't cost them anything.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I have a problem with it. I don't care what the situation is. In almost all cases a move like this just doesn't work. There's always at least one horse that catches a break and gets a breather, not running when the others are, and is able to come on and last move those than ran before it. Happens daily in races all over the country, on all the different surfaces. You run too soon, you run out of gas sooner. Try this sometime. Get out there on a bike or in running shoes. One you experience it first hand, you'll finally understand.

I hear ya.

Good luck finding a jockey who would have been able to ride him that way.

They'd have looked like Jose Santos when he would occasionally rate turf horses into submission with his head bobbing and the horse visually looking like he's being steadied and strangled into submission.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I hear ya.

Good luck finding a jockey who would have been able to ride him that way.

They'd have looked like Jose Santos when he would occasionally rate turf horses into submission with his head bobbing and the horse visually looking like he's being steadied and strangled into submission.

The wrestling matches between jocks and horses that go on in turf races and what MTB was doing today going into the turf are about as distinct as a fat man and a skinny one.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I have a problem with it. I don't care what the situation is. In almost all cases a move like this just doesn't work. There's always at least one horse that catches a break and gets a breather, not running when the others are, and is able to come on and last move those than ran before it. Happens daily in races all over the country, on all the different surfaces. You run too soon, you run out of gas sooner. Try this sometime. Get out there on a bike or in running shoes. One you experience it first hand, you'll finally understand.

It's not a failure to understand anything. It's an instantaneous choice the jock has to make, strangle or fight the horse to restrain him (and use up energy) or try and finesse the eagerness a bit and let the horse roll on. I don't see Borel asking the horse, I see him sitting quiet as a mouse. I don't see where the horse could have been helped by cover, either. The problem started when the horse came out of the first turn.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Riot

It's not a failure to understand anything. It's an instantaneous choice the jock has to make, strangle or fight the horse to restrain him (and use up energy) or try and finesse the eagerness a bit and let the horse roll on. I don't see Borel asking the horse, I see him sitting quiet as a mouse. I don't see where the horse could have been helped by cover, either. The problem started when the horse came out of the first turn.

I don't see this. I don't have the headon but from the pan shot, I don't see the horse fighting Borel. I don't see a problem in the 1st turn. In fact, as they start to run into the 2nd turn, you see Borel let go of the reign with his left hand to change his goggles. There's no wrestling match. And, I see him urging the horse on the turn, and whipping before he enters.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I don't see this. I don't have the headon but from the pan shot, I don't see the horse fighting Borel. I don't see a problem in the 1st turn. In fact, as they start to run into the 2nd turn, you see Borel let go of the reign with his left hand to change his goggles. There's no wrestling match. And, I see him urging the horse on the turn, and whipping before he enters.

I agree the headon would be great (and I noticed, as you did, the relaxed goggles change and hoped he'd be okay when I saw that) - the part I was worried about was before that, along the backstretch. Yes, he wasn't fighting the horse, he was letting him cruise on up.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I pretty much anticipated going in that Mine That Bird would be taken back - make his one big move - and hang because of the distance and lack of pace.

Does that mean I'd have been surprised if he had run an Afleet Alex kind of race and rated into a moderate pace for far longer than I believed he was capable of rating - no.

But it's much ado about what figured to happen going in.

The same thing with Real Quiet's Belmont move ... he made an insanely pre-mature move in the Kentucky Derby .. and ran according to Moss figures the fastest mile in the last 15 or so Derby's - which includes the years Congaree and UBS were clear after a mile through scorching fractions.. and RQ still managed to win the Derby at 10fs despite absolutely walking home the final quarter mile.

Hell, Real Quiet was even like a length in front of Indian Charlie after a mile in that Derby and had him put away with that move .. and IC was one crazy fast horse.

Was that really the type of horse who was supposed to be put to sleep for 10 and a half furlongs and wait around for Victory Gallop?

[Riot]

Did anybody else notice that Durkin called MTB in the wrong position?

Heading into the final turn, Durkin calls him as second to last, 7 lengths from the lead - but at that point the horse had already moved up during the previous two furlongs and was right up on the outside, 3-4 wide just a few lengths back and 5th or so at that point. I think he miscalled another horse as MTB.

[CSC]

Durkin? Sorry if this has already been mentioned but I am just catching up with all the posts today but did anyone catch the comment Jerry Bailey made before the race that had Borel rode MTB in the Preak and not Mike Smith, he would have won. Amazing frankness on Bailey's part citing Smith using the 4 path for much of the race and Borel would have used the rail.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I pretty much anticipated going in that Mine That Bird would be taken back - make his one big move - and hang because of the distance and lack of pace.

Does that mean I'd have been surprised if he had run an Afleet Alex kind of race and rated into a moderate pace for far longer than I believed he was capable of rating - no.

But it's much ado about what figured to happen going in.

The same thing with Real Quiet's Belmont move ... he made an insanely pre-mature move in the Kentucky Derby .. and ran according to Moss figures the fastest mile in the last 15 or so Derby's - which includes the years Congaree and UBS were clear after a mile through scorching fractions.. and RQ still managed to win the Derby at 10fs despite absolutely walking home the final quarter mile.

Hell, Real Quiet was even like a length in front of Indian Charlie after a mile in that Derby and had him put away with that move .. and IC was one crazy fast horse.

Was that really the type of horse who was supposed to be put to sleep for 10 and a half furlongs and wait around for Victory Gallop?

So do you not believe the fractions? If Mine that Bird really ran sub 23 from a mile to a mile and a quarter then that was amazing. You have to either acknowledge that or say the fractions are wrong. You're too intelligent to just sit there and pretend you don't know.

[letswastemoney]

I hope that we can enjoy Mine That Bird for years to come at a top level. He seems like a consistent horse that will regularly finish in the money if not win in G1 races for the rest of his career.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So do you not believe the fractions? If Mine that Bird really ran sub 23 from a mile to a mile and a quarter then that was amazing. You have to either acknowledge that or say the fractions are wrong. You're too intelligent to just sit there and pretend you don't know.

He's a horse that has repeatedly shown an amazing burst of speed the other two times he's used those tactics.

I think you're paying a little too much attention to the naked fractions though. The track was super fast. Munnings ran 1:20 3/5ths for crying out loud. Sixthirteen blew the break, was head and head with Fabulous Strike through 43.62 .. and was only beaten 7.25 lengths.

Forget about the naked fractions - Mine That Bird started a half length in front of SB after a mile and was 4 lengths in front of him after 10 furlongs - he basically ran 3.5 lengths faster .. which is like a half a second at that rapid rate of speed.

Summer Bird is a grinder - and he figured to own the final quarter mile of this race - and he did. Mine That Bird hung like rotten salami in the Sunland races and he didn't figure to relish the added quarter mile.

I picked Summer Bird to finish 2nd and I didn't pick Mine That Bird to finish in the top 4 in my selections.

Even though MTB is without a doubt a better horse than SB - I had this extremely bull headed view going in that MTB would probably run awful because of the pace and distance .. and SB would thrive because of those two things.

I think you basically are blaming Borel because he didn't do what Afleet Alex did in his Belmont. If I really thought Mine That Bird was capable of lagging back for 10 and half furlongs and unleashing his huge move in the stretch in a race at that distance - with that pace - wouldn't he be a total slam dunk cinch to win?

I mean, he'd be a genuine 2/5 shot!

I agree with you though - on tape - the ride looks as bad as Real Quiet's.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So do you not believe the fractions? If Mine that Bird really ran sub 23 from a mile to a mile and a quarter then that was amazing. You have to either acknowledge that or say the fractions are wrong. You're too intelligent to just sit there and pretend you don't know.

it may have been amazing, but in the end, it didn't help him. wooley said he was the best horse in the race...that may be so, but the other birdstone won it. and borel may have moved prematurely, but i don't think that's what cost the horse the race. his kick didn't have that same oomph.