Lukas Handicapping Angle

[Rupert Pupkin]

He's not the big guy. He can't win a race. The big guys are Pletcher and Frankel.
My analogy was perfect. Do you understand what an analogy is? I love people who always will say that an analogy is not good but they don't explain why it's not good. The anology was perfect. I explained why the analogy was a good analogy. It was a good analogy because in both cases you had individuals engaging in reckless, high-risk behavior. If you are constantly driving drunk, you are going to get in a lot of accidents. If you are constanly running horses that are hurt, you're going to have a lot of horses break down. It's that simple.
With regard to the poster who said that Lukas' percentage of breakdowns is high because he has a lot of horses, that is totally inaccurate. A trainer that has a lot of horses will have a higher total number of breakdowns, but he will not have a higher percenatge of breakdowns. If one trainer has 1,000 horses over a 20 year period and 50 of those horses break down, that means that 5% of his horses broke down. If another guy had 400 horses and he had 20 horses break down, then that would also be 5%. These guys would have an equal number of breakdowns in terms of percentages.