Belmont Stakes Field

The Indomitable DrugS · #1 06-01-2009, 04:30 PM

Six?

That looks like ten no hopers to me.

slotdirt · #2 06-01-2009, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Six?

That's looks like ten no hopers to me.

I don't know, don't you think Charitable Man has at least a lick of talent?

Bobby Fischer · #3 06-01-2009, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't know, don't you think Charitable Man has at least a lick of talent?

Charitable Man and Dunkirk look like the two best, but Mine That Bird has a chance as well.

Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird could each round out a tri or even the exacta, but they would be more a surprise to win.

Not that bad of a field overall

NTamm1215 · #4 06-01-2009, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't know, don't you think Charitable Man has at least a lick of talent?

I think Charitable Man has done nothing thus far to lead anyone to believe he's a good horse. That includes earning a 98 Beyer figure in one of the all-time perfect trips.

NT

slotdirt · #5 06-01-2009, 04:36 PM

I thought the horse looked like he could run during his juvenile season, and am not ready to dismiss him quite yet.

JerseyJ · #6 06-01-2009, 04:48 PM

The only horses in here who have even run a race fast enough to win this race are Dunkirk, Mine That Bird, and Flying Private as none of the others have ever eclipsed 100 on the beyer scale. Because of that, I think those three are the horses to use in the race. Charitable Man is a paper tiger fraud who looks great off of the perfect trip win of the century, where after that perfect trip he still came home in around 13 seconds for the final 1/8th of a mile. I don't think he wants any part of 1 1/2. Chocolate Candy has never run a fast race nor has he ever really ran that good of a race, and no races out in California to total mediocrity Pioneerof the Nile don't count as good races. Finally, I don't really see anything in Summer Bird. He ran ok in his first two starts, but his Arkansas Derby was severly pace aided, and he had a great trip that day compared to Flying Private who tripped out much worse that day in the Arkansas Derby. I just don't see Summer Bird at all.

Hickory Hill Hoff · #7 06-01-2009, 04:54 PM

Can we get 3-1 or better on Dunkirk?

Bobby Fischer · #8 06-01-2009, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

Charitable Man is a paper tiger fraud who looks great off of the perfect trip win of the century, where after that perfect trip he still came home in around 13 seconds for the final 1/8th of a mile.

12.77 home, and He went 94.36 to the mile...

tough crowd

letswastemoney · #9 06-01-2009, 06:32 PM

Will Dunkirk be able to get 1.5 miles??

the_fat_man · #10 06-01-2009, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

Finally, I don't really see anything in Summer Bird. He ran ok in his first two starts, but his Arkansas Derby was severly pace aided, and he had a great trip that day compared to Flying Private who tripped out much worse that day in the Arkansas Derby. I just don't see Summer Bird at all.

Not saying I don't buy this but I'm too lazy to watch the replay of the AD. Maybe you can help me out by explaining how FP's trip was "much worse' than SB's.

JerseyJ · #11 06-01-2009, 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Not saying I don't buy this but I'm too lazy to watch the replay of the AD. Maybe you can help me out by explaining how FP's trip was "much worse' than SB's.

Unfortunately the head on isn't very good so it doesn't capture the 2nd trouble point, but on Race Replays video at the 1:15 mark is the first point where Ocampo runs up on the heels almost of a tiring horse who's under pressure mid track. While that happens Rosier and Summer Bird get going on the outside getting the run on Flying Private when comparing trips. The 2nd point is at around 1:30 but since the Oaklawn head on video is horrendous, you can't see much.

Basically, the Pan Shot gives you a better view of how Ocampo runs up on Ziegfield who is stopping badly, forcing him to almost take up while Summer Bird commences his rally on the outside at the same time. Then, while Summer Bird has clear running on the outside, Ocampo has to wait and hold up Flying Private until he can get some running room. It's much better on the Pan Shot in terms of seeing the traffic issues that Flying Private had compared to Summer Bird. I realize Flying Private didn't kick a whole heck of a lot when he did get clear, but Lukas said in the article by Grening today that Flying Private is a long striding horse so that might explain why the trouble really hurt the colt. Just my opinion based on what I saw.