Belmont Stakes Field

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by CSC

Having an opinion early on is termed 'opening the flood gates'?

Do you really think Summer Bird is the most likely winner? You could really cash in at Bodog which is offering 30-1 on Summer Bird.

--Dunbar

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Do you really think Summer Bird is the most likely winner? You could really cash in at Bodog which is offering 30-1 on Summer Bird.

--Dunbar

The Belmont has seen less likely winners than SB and I liked him for awhile or perhaps more precisely after the ARK Derby, in the back of my mind I was thinking he would have been a good Preak and or Belmont horse. The Derby was probably too big a jump, too soon...He's one horse I think the distance will not hurt him and he will be a good price no doubt. If the Big 3 RA, MTB, DK run.

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by CSC

The Belmont has seen less likely winners than SB and I liked him for awhile or perhaps more precisely after the ARK Derby, in the back of my mind I was thinking he would have been a good Preak and or Belmont horse. The Derby was probably too big a jump, too soon...He's one horse I think the distance will not hurt him and he will be a good price no doubt. If the Big 3 RA, MTB, DK run.

the added distance should suit him perfectly. He's definitely one I'm not throwing out of any exotics I'm playing.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by CSC

The Belmont has seen less likely winners than SB and I liked him for awhile or perhaps more precisely after the ARK Derby, in the back of my mind I was thinking he would have been a good Preak and or Belmont horse. The Derby was probably too big a jump, too soon...He's one horse I think the distance will not hurt him and he will be a good price no doubt. If the Big 3 RA, MTB, DK run.

The Derby wasn't too big a jump for Summer Bird... Too big a jump for Chris Rozier, yes... but for the colt, no.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The Derby wasn't too big a jump for Summer Bird... Too big a jump for Chris Rozier, yes... but for the colt, no.

Chris Rosier, now I have been making a case of not betting Jockies but he would have tested my belief system had he been named the jock for the Belmont.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The Derby wasn't too big a jump for Summer Bird...

Steve, this opinion was nagging away at me last night and I am curious if you would like to expand your thoughts on this.

Summer Bird to me made a rapid progression(beyer and competition wise) from his Mdn win to ARK derby in a very short time, I thought he had every reason to regress in the Derby. The Derby was a big race for him given he ran well despite not being on the best part of the track. I would expect his next race to be his best given he is still lightly raced, and one angle I love is the the Derby to Belmont angle, skipping the Preak. All in all he is a horse with talent, couple that with his stamina pedigree. He is very interesting, I just hope he doesn't become the buzz horse next week, thus RA's projected entry will most certainly be important to value bettors.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

Summer Bird to me made a rapid progression(beyer and competition wise) from his Mdn win to ARK derby in a very short time, I thought he had every reason to regress in the Derby. The Derby was a big race for him given he ran well despite not being on the best part of the track. I would expect his next race to be his best given he is still lightly raced, and one angle I love is the the Derby to Belmont angle, skipping the Preak. All in all he is a horse with talent, couple that with his stamina pedigree. He is very interesting, I just hope he doesn't become the buzz horse next week, thus RA's projected entry will most certainly be important to value bettors.

I'm trying to understand why this horse interests you so much. That he gained into a race that accelerated the last 1/8th, the ARK Derby, is, at first glance, noteworthy. Yet, I'm not so sure that he didn't get the best of it that day in terms of dynamics. And, he basically ran evenly in the Derby. He never made a more and did nothing more than pass faders, horses that had run earlier.

I can understand why Mine That Bird might not be a solid alternative for some. While he made a ridiculous move in the Derby, he did it on the best part of the track, and while saving ground; and he got the best of it in terms of setup in the Preakness. So I can understand if some still question his ability. But, there's certainly no questioning that he's run better than Summer Bird. I'm not saying that MTB is my choice, as I have to see who ultimately runs.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm trying to understand why this horse interests you so much. That he gained into a race that accelerated the last 1/8th, the ARK Derby, is, at first glance, noteworthy. Yet, I'm not so sure that he didn't get the best of it that day in terms of dynamics. And, he basically ran evenly in the Derby. He never made a more and did nothing more than pass faders, horses that had run earlier.

I can understand why Mine That Bird might not be a solid alternative for some. While he made a ridiculous move in the Derby, he did it on the best part of the track, and while saving ground; and he got the best of it in terms of setup in the Preakness. So I can understand if some still question his ability. But, there's certainly no questioning that he's run better than Summer Bird. I'm not saying that MTB is my choice, as I have to see who ultimately runs.

The simple answer would be I believe we have yet to see the best from Summer Bird, whereas we have with some of the others and that is the time to bet a horse, if he was a 100% proven commodity at this point he would be of very little interest to me as a betting prospect. We all have taken a liking to a horse at one time or another, these are the calls that make horseracing fascinating and possibly rewarding. There's no point in anyone saying The horse that Borel will ride is the Belmont winner...it's so ho hum...

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

The simple answer would be I believe we have yet to see the best from Summer Bird, whereas we have with some of the others and that is the time to bet a horse, if he was a 100% proven commodity at this point he would be of very little interest to me as a betting prospect. We all have taken a liking to a horse at one time or another, these are the calls that make horseracing fascinating and possibly rewarding. There's no point in anyone saying The horse that Borel will ride is the Belmont winner...it's so ho hum...

I'm certainly not advocating taking the ho hum approach. And, my reasons for being in the game are strictly for the challenge. Any sporting aspect went out the window when I stopped going to the track. As such, it becomes more about making money. If there's a good betting opportunity in the Belmont, I'll be in it. If not, I'll pass, the way I passed the Derby. Unfortunately, I don't have the luxury of betting on horses I've taken a liking to: got that ROI to think about.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by CSC

Steve, this opinion was nagging away at me last night and I am curious if you would like to expand your thoughts on this.

Summer Bird to me made a rapid progression(beyer and competition wise) from his Mdn win to ARK derby in a very short time, I thought he had every reason to regress in the Derby. The Derby was a big race for him given he ran well despite not being on the best part of the track. I would expect his next race to be his best given he is still lightly raced, and one angle I love is the the Derby to Belmont angle, skipping the Preak. All in all he is a horse with talent, couple that with his stamina pedigree. He is very interesting, I just hope he doesn't become the buzz horse next week, thus RA's projected entry will most certainly be important to value bettors.

I hope you backed your long love of Summer Bird - well done.

I'm just wondering if NTamm is still in shock (see his post above) - I'm just kidding I didn't like the horse either.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I hope you backed your long love of Summer Bird - well done.

I'm just wondering if NTamm is still in shock (see his post above) - I'm just kidding I didn't like the horse either.

Thanks Sightsight and NTamm,

That's nice of you guys, it wasn't looking good at one point when all my exotics went down the drain with the Baffert filly winning the Acorn, but an old fashion win bet on Summer bird turned it into a memorable day. Thanks again!

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by CSC

The Belmont has seen less likely winners than SB and I liked him for awhile or perhaps more precisely after the ARK Derby, in the back of my mind I was thinking he would have been a good Preak and or Belmont horse. The Derby was probably too big a jump, too soon...He's one horse I think the distance will not hurt him and he will be a good price no doubt. If the Big 3 RA, MTB, DK run.

"seen less likely winners" is a far cry from declaring SB the winner. I like the horse and would bet him at a price myself, but that's different than thinking he's the most likely winner. He could end up a good bet (or even the best bet) from a value standpoint, but it would take a few defections to make SB the most likely winner.

--Dunbar

[Sightseek]

Anybody?