Friday nite at Hollywood 5/22

Lava · #1 05-22-2009, 07:03 PM

Race 1 Pick 4 $18
2,3,5
2,3,9
3,9
7

Race 5 Pick 4 $24
2,4,6
1,2
2,4,7,8
5

Rootdog1 · #2 05-22-2009, 07:35 PM

early 4
1)3 (unless the 1 gets played heavy)
2)3,4,5,7,9
3)2,3,9
4)5,7,9

pointman · #3 05-22-2009, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

early 4
1)3 (unless the 1 gets played heavy)
2)3,4,5,7,9
3)2,3,9
4)5,7,9

In the 1st, I almost feel like the 2 has a shot because 3 and 5 seem to know no other way but to be on top and it doesn't look to me like either can rate, the 1 may get hooked up in a 3 way battle leaving the 2 to pick up the pieces. I am wondering if the 3 is good enough to clear this field and hang on.

Bigsmc · #4 05-22-2009, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman

In the 1st, I almost feel like the 2 has a shot because 3 and 5 seem to know no other way but to be on top and it doesn't look to me like either can rate, the 1 may get hooked up in a 3 way battle leaving the 2 to pick up the pieces. I am wondering if the 3 is good enough to clear this field and hang on.

The 2 definitely has a big shot. The other three could knock each other out and the 2 could stroll home. I initially was going to play ALL in the first, until I saw the 2nd and the 4th. Yikes.

MaTH716 · #5 05-22-2009, 07:51 PM

I agree with you both. I originally thought the 4 was the closer to play, but now it's the 2 by default.

pointman · #6 05-22-2009, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

The 2 definitely has a big shot. The other three could knock each other out and the 2 could stroll home. I initially was going to play ALL in the first, until I saw the 2nd and the 4th. Yikes.

That is really funny, I was thinking the same thing, said to myself 4 horse race might as well hit all. Then I read the second and that theory was pretty much dead. Then I got the fourth and it became clear that I have to try to take some kind of a stand in the first.

By the way, in the fourth I really like the 1 at 10-1, dropping back to 40K, turf to synth, cutting back, blinks on, think this one looks live.

Bigsmc · #7 05-22-2009, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman

That is really funny, I was thinking the same thing, said to myself 4 horse race might as well hit all. Then I read the second and that theory was pretty much dead. Then I got the fourth and it became clear that I have to try to take some kind of a stand in the first.

By the way, in the fourth I really like the 1 at 10-1, dropping back to 40K, turf to synth, cutting back, blinks on, think this one looks live.

I like the 6 as a longshot play in the 4th. Nick Pappagiorgio isn't so good with firsters, but this one's dam broke her maiden in her first race at DMR and the sire is winning with 14% of his firsters. Works pretty good, maybe...

I'm counting on one or more of the firsters to go with your 1 and if he gets pressured on the front, I'm expecting him to fold his tent.

pointman · #8 05-22-2009, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I like the 6 as a longshot play in the 4th. Nick Pappagiorgio isn't so good with firsters, but this one's dam broke her maiden in her first race at DMR and the sire is winning with 14% of his firsters. Works pretty good, maybe...

I'm counting on one or more of the firsters to go with your 1 and if he gets pressured on the front, I'm expecting him to fold his tent.

That is the reason why I can't see myself going less than 5 deep there. I feel like any of the 1,2,5,7,9 could win the race, but if they let the 1 go, he will be dangerous at what hopefully will be a price. Structure is key with this early pk4 play.

ARyan · #9 05-22-2009, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman

In the 1st, I almost feel like the 2 has a shot because 3 and 5 seem to know no other way but to be on top and it doesn't look to me like either can rate, the 1 may get hooked up in a 3 way battle leaving the 2 to pick up the pieces. I am wondering if the 3 is good enough to clear this field and hang on.

I keep coming back to the same thing. The #5 has never passed a horse, the #3 has, and looks to be the class of the race. However, if all three are pressing for the lead, does this just set up for the #2 to pick up the pieces.

I would love to get through the 1st with a single...

pointman · #10 05-22-2009, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ARyan

I keep coming back to the same thing. The #5 has never passed a horse, the #3 has, and looks to be the class of the race. However, if all three are pressing for the lead, does this just set up for the #2 to pick up the pieces.

I would love to get through the 1st with a single...

I feel the same way, I just feel like the 2 and 3 have the best shot, but I can't rule out the 5 and if I use 3 horses in a 4 horse race the one I don't use is a lock to win!

MaTH716 · #11 05-22-2009, 08:29 PM

I'm going to stay close to my original ticket.
2,5 (try to beat Rosario)
3,9
2,3,5 (adding the 2 on the drop with the constant 70 Beyers)
1,5,7,9
$48 bucks.

dean smith · #12 05-22-2009, 08:29 PM

Early P4:

1) 3
2) 1,2,3,5
3) 2,3
4) 1,7

$16

Chalky budget play for me here. I'm very inexperienced with Pick 4s.

dean smith · #13 05-22-2009, 08:34 PM

If I decided to go a more aggressive route, does anyone have an opinion on the 7 as a single in the 4th?

Sometimes I just need talking out of doing stupid $hit...