Mockery of Sport?

[Kasept]

Was sending a number of Derby threads to the Triple Crown Archive this miorning and re-visited this one. Thought this evolved into a pretty interesting conversation on the Derby odds board... With Mine That Bird more than validating himself in Baltimore, thought this deserved a second read/life.

Is it now a maxim that Derby prices are unplayable as fair value win bets? Not that they weren't before, but looking back, it seems Derby exotics are the only worthwhile approach.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Was sending a number of Derby threads to the Triple Crown Archive this miorning and re-visited this one. Thought this evolved into a pretty interesting conversation on the Derby odds board... With Mine That Bird more than validating himself in Baltimore, thought this deserved a second read/life.

Is it now a maxim that Derby prices are unplayable as fair value win bets? Not that they weren't before, but looking back, it seems Derby exotics are the only worthwhile approach.

steve - i don't know about that MM at 22/1 in the derby offered some value no? he was coming off 2 wins and with IWR and QR and many on here thinking that POTN was no good i thought he odds were playable in the race.

to me general qtrs , a horse who he beat twice i believe before ky was 8/1 - based on nbc and espn hyping the mccarthy angle to me i thought that was a great bet against , i would let him beat me at 8 or 9 /1 all day

[gales0678]

one add on steve to the oaks/derby double , MTB was the 15th or 16th choice with RA no? in hindsight before the race should he have not been the highest paying will pay with RA?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by gales0678

one add on steve to the oaks/derby double , MTB was the 15th or 16th choice with RA no? in hindsight before the race should he have not been the highest paying will pay with RA?

He was the 17th individual betting interest, so being 15th or 16th in the double is hardly a not exactly a discrepancy.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by gales0678

steve - i don't know about that MM at 22/1 in the derby offered some value no? he was coming off 2 wins and with IWR and QR and many on here thinking that POTN was no good i thought he odds were playable in the race.

to me general qtrs , a horse who he beat twice i believe before ky was 8/1 - based on nbc and espn hyping the mccarthy angle to me i thought that was a great bet against , i would let him beat me at 8 or 9 /1 all day

You had a personal tie to Musket Man so he was a price and value to you. And he was actually a mediocre win bet at 19-1. 25 or 30-1 was a more appropriate number for him. This is kind of my point... Most horses now on the Derby win line are at least 20-30% below their appropriate price.

General Quarters was 10-1 ($10.30), and yes, that was silly. 5-1 on Dunkirk and 10-1 on Chocolate Candy were low. 13-1 on Hold Me Back was less than acceptible... Etc..

Here's the Derby listed by final odds; finish; ML; My own personal 'acceptable' win price.

Note that for all the grief Battaglia takes, how accurate his line turned out to be for all but the middle priced (10-1 to 20-1) horses. He was right on with the three top choices and deadly with everything 30-1 or higher.

Betting choice-Finish-Odds:$1-ML-Personal Win $

1. (18) Friesan Fire 3.80 (5-1) 8-1
2. (11) Dunkirk 5.20 (4-1) 12-1
3. (2) Pioneerof the Nile 6.30 (4-1) 10-1
4. (5) Chocolate Candy 10.00 (20-1) 15-1 [My win selection]
5. (10) General Quarters 10.30 (20-1) 30-1
6. (4) Papa Clem 12.20 (20-1) 20-1
7. (12) Hold Me Back 12.70 (15-1) 20-1
8. (14) Desert Party 14.80 (15-1) 25-1
9. (3) Musket Man 19.00 (20-1) 25-1
10. (8) Regal Ransom 22.60 (30-1) 30-1
11. (15) Mr. Hot Stuff 28.40 (30-1) 30-1
12. (9) West Side Bernie 32.40 (30-1) 20-1
13. (6) Summer Bird 43.60 (50-1) 40-1
14. (17) Nowhere to Hide 45.50 (50-1) 200-1
15. (19) Flying Private 46.60 (50-1) 75-1
16. (13) Advice 49.00 (30-1) 150-1
17. (1) Mine That Bird 50.60 (50-1) 150-1
18. (7) Join in the Dance 51.40 (50-1) 50-1
19. (16) Atomic Rain 55.20 (50-1) 50-1

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You had a personal tie to Musket Man so he was a price and value to you. And he was actually a mediocre win bet at 19-1. 25 or 30-1 was a more appropriate number for him. This is kind of my point... Most horses now on the Derby win line are at least 20-30% below their appropriate price.

General Quarters was 10-1 ($10.30), and yes, that was silly. 5-1 on Dunkirk and 10-1 on Chocolate Candy were low. 13-1 on Hold Me Back was less than acceptible... Etc..

Here's the Derby listed by final odds; finish; ML; My own personal 'acceptable' win price.

Note that for all the grief Battaglia takes, how accurate his line turned out to be for all but the middle priced (10-1 to 20-1) horses. He was right on with the three top choices and deadly with everything 30-1 or higher.

Betting choice-Finish-Odds:$1-ML-Personal Win $

1. (18) Friesan Fire 3.80 (5-1) 8-1
2. (11) Dunkirk 5.20 (4-1) 12-1
3. (2) Pioneerof the Nile 6.30 (4-1) 10-1
4. (5) Chocolate Candy 10.00 (20-1) 15-1 [My win selection]
5. (10) General Quarters 10.30 (20-1) 30-1
6. (4) Papa Clem 12.20 (20-1) 20-1
7. (12) Hold Me Back 12.70 (15-1) 20-1
8. (14) Desert Party 14.80 (15-1) 25-1
9. (3) Musket Man 19.00 (20-1) 25-1
10. (8) Regal Ransom 22.60 (30-1) 30-1
11. (15) Mr. Hot Stuff 28.40 (30-1) 30-1
12. (9) West Side Bernie 32.40 (30-1) 20-1
13. (6) Summer Bird 43.60 (50-1) 40-1
14. (17) Nowhere to Hide 45.50 (50-1) 200-1
15. (19) Flying Private 46.60 (50-1) 75-1
16. (13) Advice 49.00 (30-1) 150-1
17. (1) Mine That Bird 50.60 (50-1) 150-1
18. (7) Join in the Dance 51.40 (50-1) 50-1
19. (16) Atomic Rain 55.20 (50-1) 50-1

steve - i know you for a few years , but how you come up with a 12/1 line on dunkirk makes no sense to me, i probably don't get it- he was a good second on a speed favoring track to a horse that would have been the favorite or 2nd choice if he was in the field

can you walk me through how you would come up with 12/1 on him against this field ?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by gales0678

steve - i know you for a few years , but how you come up with a 12/1 line on dunkirk makes no sense to me, i probably don't get it- he was a good second on a speed favoring track to a horse that would have been the favorite or 2nd choice if he was in the field

can you walk me through how you would come up with 12/1 on him against this field ?

I wasn't a fan from Day 1, but given that he was a game second to the fastest 3yo in the crop in Quality Road, (who was my selection in the race had he run), he demanded respect in this spot. He owns the kind of acceleration and turn kick that plays well in the Derby and was certainly bred for the trip. He had the lightly-raced, unproven Curlin-esque factor of a horse that needed to be feared.