chances mike smith off in the belmont

[the_fat_man]

I think that even someone as dominant in his sport as Lance Armstrong would admit that if his team, those 'working' for him, don't get him to the key point in a race in the right way, then he basically has little chance of winning. Put another way, if any number of competent cyclists, with a talent level below that of Armstrong, are gotten to a key point in the race in a 'better' way than Armstrong, chances are, they'll beat him. Now, obviously, much planning goes into getting the star the best possible setup. And Armstrong is thus able to win more than he loses. Not nearly as much goes into getting a horse a good setup, however. In the sense that a jockey has a major portion of the control over whether a horse gets the proper setup, then, a jockey can significantly affect the performance of a horse in a race; both positively and negatively. As such, I pay close attention to the strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies of the jockeys in the circuits I follow, and I definitely consider the jockey when I bet. There are jocks I just won't bet -- it's just not worth the aggravation. There are others I'll bet less than my normal amount on. And there are those I'll bet with confidence. In fact, I do more handicapping of jocks than I do of trainers. Bad trainers typically ride bad jocks, it seems. Of course, trainer stat handicappers would disagree.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Bad trainers typically ride bad jocks, it seems. Of course, trainer stat handicappers would disagree.

Surely you understand why this is true.....right?

" Bad " trainers, as you call them, don't win that often, and usually don't have particularly good horses, so thus have less access to the better riders. They would like to ride top riders.....but those riders don't want to ride their horses in many cases.

But you knew that.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Surely you understand why this is true.....right?

" Bad " trainers, as you call them, don't win that often, and usually don't have particularly good horses, so thus have less access to the better riders. They would like to ride top riders.....but those riders don't want to ride their horses in many cases.

But you knew that.

I look at Ed's Princess this weekend. She's 29:1 to 1 and if someone with a clue was on her, she wins the race. Or, at the very least, is 2nd (which was still good for me.). Now the owner/trainer must've had a clue that she was ready to run. (I hope so, anyway.) It's hard to believe that Casey was the best he could do. Here's someone with less than a handful of winners (and that's a good 1/2 year for him) and he just threw away a sizeable purse. I wonder, seriously, if he realizes this.

I'm watching the race and it's obvious that Casey is loose reigning the horse on the backstretch and turn. I'm thinking, wtf?, you loose rein on the lead, not when you're behind/between horses, as you have no control then. But, incredibly, she loose reins the horse in the lane, as well. The other jocks have tight holds and they're whipping and driving, and she's barely able to control the horse. Why is she riding?

[blackthroatedwind]

I am not going to discuss any particular rider's skills right now, but I think you really don't understand why a lot of riders do, or don't, ride certain horses for certain connections. I understand, I used to not get it either, and then I started asking the same questions, but to people who could answer them.

In all seriousness, you should be a jock's agent. You might need to change your personality.....but you could certainly identify live mounts that most couldn't.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I As such, I pay close attention to the strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies of the jockeys in the circuits I follow, and I definitely consider the jockey when I bet. T

I highlighted this because I think will consider a riders style in certain cases. For example Gomez on speed horses, he can win those type of races but he feels much more comfortable taking horses back, to a fault almost.

Tyler Baze on a horse with some speed but its hard to remember him doing much when taking a horses back.

Honestly though beyond that I dont consider riders, and for the most part I dont look at who is riding who, there are too many unknowns to make an intelligent decision.