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#1
05-18-2009, 12:10 PM
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I gave the Preakness a 104, with a pace of 119. I doubt the race could have been much faster given the pace.
I was impressed with Nicanor's last couple, but his 100 seems to be a guess. The other turf race had a 6 point different variant, and using the same would have given him a 94. Given the Nicanor race also had a very fast pace, a 100 seems a bit much. 
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#2
05-18-2009, 12:27 PM
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Hey Steve, what did Underground get? She won the 4th Saturday at HP.
Thanks!
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#3
05-18-2009, 01:07 PM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
05-18-2009, 01:21 PM
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I think the Preakness number is too high. It doesn't seem possible that Rachel Alexandra ran that fast given her overall trip. Plus, you also have to believe that both Mine That Bird and Musket Man improved off their Derby figs, Musket Man considerably, and I have trouble buying all of that together.
It's probably splitting hairs but 104 feels more accurate.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#5
05-18-2009, 03:21 PM
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I think it's quite possible Musket Man actually improved off his Derby fig, MTB factoring ground loss I'm not sure if he could. Regardless, the relationships on rarely run distances are tough to figure exactly. It was a great race out of RA and a good performance by MTB and Musket Man.
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#7
05-19-2009, 08:49 AM
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Anyone know what Capt. Candyman got at CD?
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#8
05-18-2009, 02:57 PM
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So, let me get this straight. A 3yo filly debuting goes 108.85. The grade 3 stakes race just a few races later, with older males, got in 108.92. The 3yo filly goes .07 faster yet gets a lower BSF of 98 compared to the 99 the older male got??????
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#9
05-19-2009, 10:01 AM
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Quote:
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#10
05-19-2009, 11:55 AM
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The NUMBERS NEVER LIE. As for the filly: she's NOT FAST ENOUGH. Simple as that. 
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#11
05-19-2009, 12:41 PM
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Actually, anyone that strictly goes by the best speed figures probably thought 9:5 on Rachel Alexandra was the overlay of the century on Saturday. And, furthermore, they probably crushed the exacta. People who don't, and rely on race dynamics, could never have had Mine That Bird, and may even have been foolish enough to have liked the chances of Pioneer of the Nile. There are lots of ways to handicap, and look at races, and the people who use the most ways, the most effectively, are probably the ones who also do the best at the windows.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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