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#1
05-18-2009, 08:02 AM
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Also, Nicanor has now run a faster fig than half the Ky Derby field has ever run. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson 
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#2
05-18-2009, 08:26 AM
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I don't pay much attention to figures at rarely run distances ... so I don't have much of an opinion on the Preakness figure.
Here's what I know about how the Beyer figures came back for the race ... In a 13 horse field the horses racing 8th, 10th, 11th, 12th, and 13th early all ran new career tops .. four of the five ran big new career tops. The horses who chased Rachel Alexandra all ran well below form .. and the ones who sat furthest off the pace all ran well above form. She utterly fractured the tactical horses ... while the slowpokes, grinders, and one dimension closers who sat far enough off of the pace tood advantage of the pace setup to all run much better than expected.
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#3
05-18-2009, 01:35 PM
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Hat's off, DrugS.
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#4
05-18-2009, 08:29 AM
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Mike Matz is a total joke with first time starters .... and this horse had a legit excuse on top of that in his debut. Nicanor's last 3 races have all been very solid.
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#5
05-18-2009, 08:32 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
05-19-2009, 12:53 PM
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#7
05-19-2009, 02:08 PM
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Edit: Just now saw Steve made similar comments on Matz and the lawn. I'm not trying to be Ron Borges here. No plagiarism!
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"Boston fans hate the Yankees, we hate the Canadiens and we hate the Lakers. It's in our DNA. It just is." - Bill Simmons
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#8
05-18-2009, 08:43 AM
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But looking at the day in full, No Advantage, who came in with a career best 95, got a 100 in the Schaefer. (The day's other route was Skylighter getting a typical for her 86 winning the DuPont). The dead heat of Ea and Real Merchant, 2+ lengths back of No Advantage, may be the best indicators of the day as they came in off 103 and and 98 respectively. Interested to see what Jerry Brown comes back with on the TG scale. To be honest, the lower numbers, (104-105 for Rachel, et al), seem to work pretty well for how the top finishers looked on the sheets coming in.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#9
05-18-2009, 12:10 PM
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I gave the Preakness a 104, with a pace of 119. I doubt the race could have been much faster given the pace.
I was impressed with Nicanor's last couple, but his 100 seems to be a guess. The other turf race had a 6 point different variant, and using the same would have given him a 94. Given the Nicanor race also had a very fast pace, a 100 seems a bit much.
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#10
05-18-2009, 12:27 PM
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Hey Steve, what did Underground get? She won the 4th Saturday at HP.
Thanks!
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#11
05-18-2009, 01:07 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#12
05-18-2009, 01:21 PM
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I think the Preakness number is too high. It doesn't seem possible that Rachel Alexandra ran that fast given her overall trip. Plus, you also have to believe that both Mine That Bird and Musket Man improved off their Derby figs, Musket Man considerably, and I have trouble buying all of that together.
It's probably splitting hairs but 104 feels more accurate.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#13
05-18-2009, 03:21 PM
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I think it's quite possible Musket Man actually improved off his Derby fig, MTB factoring ground loss I'm not sure if he could. Regardless, the relationships on rarely run distances are tough to figure exactly. It was a great race out of RA and a good performance by MTB and Musket Man.
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#14
05-18-2009, 02:57 PM
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So, let me get this straight. A 3yo filly debuting goes 108.85. The grade 3 stakes race just a few races later, with older males, got in 108.92. The 3yo filly goes .07 faster yet gets a lower BSF of 98 compared to the 99 the older male got??????
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#15
05-19-2009, 10:01 AM
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#16
05-19-2009, 11:55 AM
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The NUMBERS NEVER LIE. As for the filly: she's NOT FAST ENOUGH. Simple as that. 
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#17
05-18-2009, 09:17 AM
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I had it higher, but considering I matched up with Beyer's guy on the rest of the races, I may have a bad scale for 9.5F so I think it's a good number. Rarely run distances are tough.
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#18
05-18-2009, 10:24 AM
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#19
05-18-2009, 11:02 AM
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Hybrid Mode
