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  #1  
Old 05-05-2009, 02:41 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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5 now set. Join in the Dance, Miner's Escape, Charitable Man and Mr. Fantasy no longer interested, but Flying Private is added. Terrain deciding shortly, and Tesio show pony Tone It Down is now possible.

Confirmed:
1. Mine That Bird
2. Big Drama
3. Papa Clem
4. Hull
5. Flying Private
6. Take the Points


Likely/Possible:
Conservative
Sky Gate
Tone It Down
Terrain *(Decision due today)

Derby runners considering:
Pioneerof the Nile
Musket Man
General Quarters
Friesen Fire
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Last edited by Kasept : 05-06-2009 at 07:07 AM.
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  #2  
Old 05-05-2009, 02:42 PM
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slotdirt slotdirt is offline
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Terrain is good for fourth, right?
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  #3  
Old 05-05-2009, 03:03 PM
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lemoncrush lemoncrush is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt
Terrain is good for fourth, right?
That's actually not a bad way to approach the race...worked last year with Racecar Rhapsody.
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  #4  
Old 05-05-2009, 05:02 PM
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miraja2 miraja2 is offline
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Flying Private? Really?
I guess we shouldn't be shocked after the Going Wild nonsense from a few years ago....but come on.
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  #5  
Old 05-05-2009, 05:07 PM
SniperSB23 SniperSB23 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
Flying Private? Really?
I guess we shouldn't be shocked after the Going Wild nonsense from a few years ago....but come on.
You don't think 8 starts in 17 weeks is a good idea for a horse with declining form?
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  #6  
Old 05-05-2009, 05:27 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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D. Wayne Woolley Jr. Lukas isn't affraid to run them or put them in crazy spots.

Heck - sometimes they even jump up and come through and he's called a genius and stuff. Most of the time though ... it's not so pretty.
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  #7  
Old 05-05-2009, 05:52 PM
Danzig Danzig is offline
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it sounds as tho musket man will be there. but no belmont-can't say i disagree with that strategy.
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  #8  
Old 05-05-2009, 06:13 PM
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Mike Mike is offline
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Just like there are(were) Golden Rules of Handicapping the Derby, the Preakness has some, too, just but a few.

The 105+ Beyer achieved in a route pre-Kentucky Derby(which only I Want Revenge ,Dunkirk and Quality Road had achieved), dips to a 104 par for the Preakness. Mine That Bird qualifies, as would Fresian Fire if he were able to run. Fresian Fire is also a big Preakness pick due to the frequency of Kentucky Derby ml and/or post time favorites returning to win the Preakness

Looking at Mine That Bird's current pp's, he either freaked in the slop or due to another reason, perhaps the crowd.
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  #9  
Old 05-05-2009, 06:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike
Just like there are(were) Golden Rules of Handicapping the Derby, the Preakness has some, too, just but a few.

The 105+ Beyer achieved in a route pre-Kentucky Derby(which only I Want Revenge ,Dunkirk and Quality Road had achieved), dips to a 104 par for the Preakness. Mine That Bird qualifies, as would Fresian Fire if he were able to run. Fresian Fire is also a big Preakness pick due to the frequency of Kentucky Derby ml and/or post time favorites returning to win the Preakness

Looking at Mine That Bird's current pp's, he either freaked in the slop or due to another reason, perhaps the crowd.
I much prefer the buzzer theory.
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  #10  
Old 05-05-2009, 06:50 PM
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Travis Stone Travis Stone is offline
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I think my stock answer for all comments regarding horse placement will be... "Hey, if Mine That Bird can do it..."
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  #11  
Old 05-05-2009, 07:04 PM
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ARyan ARyan is offline
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If Hull is confirmed, I really like him in this spot at first glance.
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  #12  
Old 05-05-2009, 07:09 PM
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I think Mine That Bird will repeat simply because everyone is dismissing him again. That and this 3 year old crop is suspect not on ability, but desire to win.
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  #13  
Old 05-06-2009, 07:49 AM
Antitrust32 Antitrust32 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Pants
I think Mine That Bird will repeat simply because everyone is dismissing him again. That and this 3 year old crop is suspect not on ability, but desire to win.

I'm starting to think that also. In the form on Derby day on that page that they analyze the horses it said something like

Mine that Bird : with all the top horses in this race, the bottom feeders are really weak, like this one, no chance

and the other guy wrote : he'll most likely make someone happy as he's the favorite to finish last..

then of course what was said on this site..

Pretty much think if all this dissing keeps up he's a shoe in for the win..
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  #14  
Old 05-06-2009, 07:25 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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FYI... Have to get my Preakness analysis in today (!?!?), and based on communication I received last night, it looks like TAKE THE POINTS is running... Not 100% confirmed, but the info likely comes from the Pimlico racing office.
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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