Triple Crown Winner - a possibility?

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I know what you're saying, but didn't the place and show horses run speed figures that fit perfectly well with what they had done previously? In terms of BSFs, they are both mid-90s horses who ran in the mid-90s on Saturday.

Every single horse in the race needed to run a career high Beyer to beat Mine That Bird Saturday except for Dunkirk.

[dylbert]

Before Kentucky Derby, 19 possible outcomes -- now, only Mine That Bird can possibly win Triple Crown. Odds are definitely against it happening this year, or any year.

I hope Mine That Bird is favorite in 12 days! I am Big Drama fan and his connections may enter him in Preakness. So, I could get more value for my opinion (if it is correct one).

And, several new "shooters" will definitely appear for Belmont Stakes. Twelve furlongs is big task for any 3-year old thoroughbred -- colt, filly, gelding or ridgling.

Finally, at least we know MTB is not a breeding play. So, if he is real deal, we will see him at age 4 and beyond. I see that as very positive story if it should unfold in that manner.

[HaloWishingwell]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Oh Boy, the weather updates are starting.

I'm bringing my snow gear for The Belmont

[CSC]

Mine That Bird drastically changed tactics in the derby, and he was a different horse. I'm not saying he is likely to be the next triple crown winner, but I do think it is worth noting that perhaps he was ridden for the first time in his career the way he wants to be ridden. In retrospect, I went back and looked at his last 3 races and I think most would agree he was ridden rather peculiarly. I'm not summarily dismissing him at this point of time.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by CSC

In retrospect, I went back and looked at his last 3 races and I think most would agree he was ridden rather peculiarly.

In the Sunland Derby he was off to a decent start after the first quarter- they went too fast up front and he was off the first group maybe just a tat too forward...
And then Lambert went to **** after that, for some reason he thought they were too far off the pace and pumps through a 2nd quarter that ruins all the setup advantage they had ...
Then he went and capped it off by racing to the far turn rather than the finish line
Textbook horrible ride.
But Still, grade 3 animals

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

In the Sunland Derby he was off to a decent start after the first quarter- they went too fast up front and he was off the first group maybe just a tat too forward...
And then Lambert went to **** after that, for some reason he thought they were too far off the pace and pumps through a 2nd quarter that ruins all the setup advantage they had ...
Then he went and capped it off by racing to the far turn rather than the finish line
Textbook horrible ride.
But Still, grade 3 animals

More importantly he may have only one run, so the Jock has to time his run. Better Talk Now was like this, only when Dominguez got on him that he started to win all those grade 1's. Rarely a Jockey makes this much impact on a horse, but Borel did and it is not solely for the rail ride.

[Smooth Operator]

Originally Posted by CSC

Mine That Bird drastically changed tactics in the derby, and he was a different horse. I'm not saying he is likely to be the next triple crown winner, but I do think it is worth noting that perhaps he was ridden for the first time in his career the way he wants to be ridden. In retrospect, I went back and looked at his last 3 races and I think most would agree he was ridden rather peculiarly. I'm not summarily dismissing him at this point of time.

That come-from-the-clouds running style obviously worked to perfection in the Derby ... but it usually doesn't translate into a very high win % over the long run.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Smooth Operator

That come-from-the-clouds running style obviously worked to perfection in the Derby ... but it usually doesn't translate into a very high win % over the long run.

There probably won't be another 19 horse field he lines up in where you know there will be a honest pace, however he has excelled on synthetics and usually that type of track is much fairer to closers. Looking at his past p's from Woodbine he wasn't ridden that far off the pace either so who knows if he even showed his best there.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

There is a far greater chance he never wins another race ever than the Triple Crown. As a matter of fact I think he wont win again this year. Anywhere.

maybe they will enter him in graded turf races at saratoga as MTO...

he can win a few of those and you know half of the turf races are taken off the turf at toga..

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Danzig

if anyone thinks the derby is a good indication of how these horses will do the rest of the year....let me bring up smarty jones' derby. a lot of people knocked the results, since only two horses ran a lick on that surface. this surface was in even worse shape.
you had one horse-ONE- who ran well. he inexplicably ran thirty-odd points better than his previous best, while everyone else was subpar. had that race been anything other than the derby, most of that field would have scratched. taking the results of that race as gospel would be a mistake imo. yes, horses can run well after maturing over the spring. but this particular win is more than that. the horse will have to win without the rest of the field clunking it up for me to think he's anything to watch for, bet on, next time out.

Look out for T Pletch to steal this training angle next year-


1. Drive his horses around Kentucky for 21 hours
2. Open the trailer gate
3. Watch 'em run out of their skin

[Danzig]

i wouldn't be surprised if pletcher didn't even know how to back a trailer.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i wouldn't be surprised if pletcher didn't even know how to back a trailer.

Todd grew up with horses, I'm sure backing a trailer wouldn't be a problem.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Todd grew up with horses, I'm sure backing a trailer wouldn't be a problem.

just saying that he's got hands for all that...

lady lives here who rides barrels every wknd, has been around horses her whole life....can't back a trailer.

[sdjcom]

Originally Posted by kgar311

If thats the case and they knew this horse was that good then this is the greatest horse of all time. To think they had much confidence in this horse as the most freakesh horse they had ever seen to take him to Sunland stiff him twice knowing all along that all these scratches were going to happen that would allow him into the race, then know the stiff jobs wouldnt affect the horse negataively because he was that good? . Sounds too much

i agreed with you but said it makes for a great novel, just pure fiction by me. I have no proof or am accusing his owners or trainers, just a conversation piece. And i still don't believe it.

[slotdirt]

Am I the only cynical one still waiting to see the final test come back on the winner's blood sample?

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Am I the only cynical one still waiting to see the final test come back on the winner's blood sample?

That would be the final nail in the coffin for the sport.

[gales0678]

has the purse money offically cleared?

[sdjcom]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Am I the only cynical one still waiting to see the final test come back on the winner's blood sample?

no sir several of us has mentioned it, but surely MTB guys are smarter than that, we'll see.

[gales0678]

if the impossible/ unthinkable became reality and he came down , would POTN still be running for the triple crown or if you move up on a dq then it doesn't count?

[sdjcom]

Originally Posted by gales0678

if the impossible/ unthinkable became reality and he came down , would POTN still be running for the triple crown or if you move up on a dq then it doesn't count?

POTN would be declared official winner,purse money, and record, same as a dq