Weekend Beyers (Rachel 108; Bird 105)

[pointman]

Originally Posted by booner

So, taking that into consideration, I Want Revenge jumped 21 points in his move from synthetic to dirt. That would also be considered a rare jump?

I'm not trying to debate, just trying to learn a little from this. I realize it was a big jump in the biggest race for 3 year olds, but is this a tool to look at in other situations down the road?

Horses can make big jumps for a variety of reasons. IWR's jump is much more logical and can be explained by the surface change from synthetics to what is his obviously preferred surface, dirt. There are many that believe that the Beyer's are always lower than they should be on synthetics (I believe that Beyer has recently stated that he is even going to try to adjust this) which can explain part of IWR's jump. However, since IWR's breeding was for dirt, his jump was not only logical, but led many, like myself, to believe that it was for real and not just a freak race. This was validated when he put up a big number in the Wood while in hand despite his nightmare trip.

MTB's jump is hard to explain. You often see a lightly raced horse make a big jump or a horse that makes a big jump from 2 to 3 years old, but what makes MTR's jump confusing is that he did have enough races and a Beyer pattern that would not lead one to believe that he could make such a huge jump at this point in time.

The real question to ask is whether you believe that MTB's jump was real and whether he can sustain it in the Preakness/Belmont. Many horses regress after such a big jump, many never even come close to approaching such a figure again, and I have to believe that MTB did not suddenly become the top three year old overnight and will run nowhere close the race he did on Saturday. There are others such as TFM that believe the Beyers are complete garbage.

I believe that MTB will be a huge underlay in the Preakness even at 8-1 or 10-1 relative to his actual chances of producing a winning performance which will create overlays. The problem that I have is that the rest of the field ran so badly, it is hard to make a case as to the horse that should crush whoever enters that race.

[booner]

Originally Posted by pointman

Horses can make big jumps for a variety of reasons. IWR's jump is much more logical and can be explained by the surface change from synthetics to what is his obviously preferred surface, dirt. There are many that believe that the Beyer's are always lower than they should be on synthetics (I believe that Beyer has recently stated that he is even going to try to adjust this) which can explain part of IWR's jump. However, since IWR's breeding was for dirt, his jump was not only logical, but led many, like myself, to believe that it was for real and not just a freak race. This was validated when he put up a big number in the Wood while in hand despite his nightmare trip.

MTB's jump is hard to explain. You often see a lightly raced horse make a big jump or a horse that makes a big jump from 2 to 3 years old, but what makes MTR's jump confusing is that he did have enough races and a Beyer pattern that would not lead one to believe that he could make such a huge jump at this point in time.

The real question to ask is whether you believe that MTB's jump was real and whether he can sustain it in the Preakness/Belmont. Many horses regress after such a big jump, many never even come close to approaching such a figure again, and I have to believe that MTB did not suddenly become the top three year old overnight and will run nowhere close the race he did on Saturday. There are others such as TFM that believe the Beyers are complete garbage.

I believe that MTB will be a huge underlay in the Preakness even at 8-1 or 10-1 relative to his actual chances of producing a winning performance which will create overlays. The problem that I have is that the rest of the field ran so badly, it is hard to make a case as to the horse that should crush whoever enters that race.

This is along the lines of what I was looking for. I had heard all the discussion about IWR's jump (breeding for dirt imparticular) that made his improvment in the Gotham logical.

Would it be incorrect to assume that MTB would produce a comparible performance the next time he hits the slop? Of course I realize that pace, trip, etc. would play a factor, but just from a raw handicapping standpoint, you would have to take a hard look at him?

Once again, I'm not doing this to try to say "MTB is a Triple Crown horse if the track turns up sloppy the next 2 races", but instead to look at using this angle for other races and other horses.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by booner

This is along the lines of what I was looking for. I had heard all the discussion about IWR's jump (breeding for dirt imparticular) that made his improvment in the Gotham logical.

Would it be incorrect to assume that MTB would produce a comparible performance the next time he hits the slop? Of course I realize that pace, trip, etc. would play a factor, but just from a raw handicapping standpoint, you would have to take a hard look at him?

Once again, I'm not doing this to try to say "MTB is a Triple Crown horse if the track turns up sloppy the next 2 races", but instead to look at using this angle for other races and other horses.

Booner, I am no expert on Beyer figures, but have a fair understanding and others, such as Drugs may be better suited to answer such questions than me.

Certainly it is logical to conclude that MTB likes the slop and some of the improvement could be attributed to that and that you should move him up when he gets a muddy surface again. It is just one tool amongst many handicapping tools you can use although you would like to see a bigger sample than one race before making the conclusion, but you can certainly find some longshots based on seeing good races under certain conditions.

A good example would be Accredit from earlier on the Churchill card on Saturday, I am doing this from memory, but I gave Accredit a chance to win that race at a decent price based upon the fact that he was 4 for 4 on off tracks and had run some good speed figures if I remember correctly. However, just because a horse has not run well in the off going once or twice does not mean they don't like it, the horse may have had traffic problems, bad trips, etc.