Derby thoughts....

[pointman]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

good post, for all of its hype. the derby is probably one of the WORST betting races for a SERIOUS handicapper. especially in shaky conditions like a wet track. these horses come from all over from different preps that one has to decipher and none have been the distance. its more of a crap shoot than any major race but people are in love with it. 20 horse come charging out and some are eliminated at the start, even the logical ones. people get worked up for months over it when in actuality most years the under cards on oaks and derby day are places to make sure scores. the derby is actually "window dressing" and should be bet for fun or in pics and doubles. putting the bankroll on that race is just plain dumb.

I disagree, generally the Derby provides excellent opportunites and excellent payouts. Often, it is the last time that you will see any value on a truly very good horse and you can make huge hits on exactas, tris and supers. Favorites tend to be overlaid in comparison to thier actual chances of winning the race. There is also more stupid money in the Derby pool than any other race in the year. Mine that Bird was an underlay at 50-1 which creates overlays on others. Just because this race was won by an incomprehensible horse does not make the Derby a bad betting race. Any race with 19 to 20 starters will offer value somewhere.

The good thing about this shocker is that it will create overlays in future years as there will be a lot of stupid money put on horses that have no chance in the next few years which will overlay the horses that actually have a real chance to win the race.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by pointman

I disagree, generally the Derby provides excellent opportunites and excellent payouts. Often, it is the last time that you will see any value on a truly very good horse and you can make huge hits on exactas, tris and supers. Favorites tend to be overlaid in comparison to thier actual chances of winning the race. There is also more stupid money in the Derby pool than any other race in the year. Mine that Bird was an underlay at 50-1 which creates overlays on others. Just because this race was won by an incomprehensible horse does not make the Derby a bad betting race. Any race with 19 to 20 starters will offer value somewhere.

The good thing about this shocker is that it will create overlays in future years as there will be a lot of stupid money put on horses that have no chance in the next few years which will overlay the horses that actually have a real chance to win the race.

you are right , there are opportunities. but they are all very unreliable because of the nature of the race. its good for odds but bad on reliability. its not a bad betting race because of the results. its a bad betting race because of the conditions. yes, its worth a shot but seriously betting serious money is out of the question. the race is more of a calvary charge than a race. horses are eliminated at the start. how do you handicap that? why should you risk money on that bumper car race when bullsbay, informed decision and einstein were such easy pickings at good prices. that was my point.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

you are right , there are opportunities. but they are all very unreliable because of the nature of the race. its good for odds but bad on reliability. its not a bad betting race because of the results. its a bad betting race because of the conditions. yes, its worth a shot but seriously betting serious money is out of the question. the race is more of a calvary charge than a race. horses are eliminated at the start. how do you handicap that? why should you risk money on that bumper car race when bullsbay, informed decision and einstein were such easy pickings at good prices. that was my point.

I suppose you could argue that the track condition really affected the betting opportunities of this particular race, but I feel like people have short memories because we have had two big upsets in the last few years. The fact of the matter is that 20 horse field or not, the best horse usually wins the Derby. The fact is that you will almost always get a higher price than you would not ordinarily get on that horse save for two reasons, the size of the field and the stupid money being thrown into the pool. From a betting standpoint, this is the definition of a good betting opportunity.

The exactas, tri's, superfectas can be immense pays using logical horses, throw in a couple of longshots and you can cash a ticket the size that you could rarely get on any raceday in America. Personally I love the Derby and have had some huge returns that one just could not get in another race.

[richard burch]

this is story book / movie material. a jockey who cant read or write, a trainer with a broken leg, a 1600 mile drive in a truck with the horse in tow and a $9,500.00 horse who couldn't find the winners circle.

so what's the problem?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by pointman

The exactas, tri's, superfectas can be immense pays using logical horses, throw in a couple of longshots and you can cash a ticket the size that you could rarely get on any raceday in America. Personally I love the Derby and have had some huge returns that one just could not get in another race.

A trifecta of Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Curlin paid $440. That would never happen in any other race.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

A trifecta of Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Curlin paid $440. That would never happen in any other race.

I cashed that one and there is no doubt that you could never get that kind of money on those three horses in any other race!