Thank You Mine That Bird

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Left Bank

What was the score,by the way?

3-2 caps! i was so mad about having to leave, about half an hour before the faceoff. thank god for sirius. people were looking at me kind of funny driving down the road, slapping the dashboard and yelling 'steckelllllllll!!". got home in time to see the last five minutes or so on t.v. watched the whole thing again last night when my son got home.

[byalip]

Is anyone ready to concede that jockeys DO make a difference? If so, would you confess to including them in your handicapping strategy?

I seem to recall them being compared to trained monkeys who are just along for the ride, they can screw up a horse's chances and make them lose but they can't factor into a win or a robot could do the job.

Now what?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by byalip

Is anyone ready to concede that jockeys DO make a difference? If so, would you confess to including them in your handicapping strategy?

I seem to recall them being compared to trained monkeys who are just along for the ride, they can screw up a horse's chances and make them lose but they can't factor into a win or a robot could do the job.

Now what?

many times i don't even look at who's riding.
bill shoemaker could have risen from the dead to ride mine that bird, he'd have still been 50-1-and rightfully so.

calvin doesn't win every race with that ride you know. he has to have the horse to pull it off. it worked yesterday. everything came together for him and he got the brass ring.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by byalip

Is anyone ready to concede that jockeys DO make a difference? If so, would you confess to including them in your handicapping strategy?

I seem to recall them being compared to trained monkeys who are just along for the ride, they can screw up a horse's chances and make them lose but they can't factor into a win or a robot could do the job.

Now what?

Well anyone with a realistic perception and a knowledge of how set ups, and race-shapes affect outcomes, can see that Borel won that race.

The problem with changing your handicapping strategy to revolve around jockeys is that this was one of the all-time greatest jockey influenced examples in the history of stakes races. The vast majority of races have much less if any influence from jockeys.

I think jockeys do have strengths and weaknesses and that it is illogical to preach race shapes and set ups and ignore jockeys altogether, but they don't deserve more than a small consideration.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Well anyone with a realistic perception and a knowledge of how set ups, and race-shapes affect outcomes, can see that Borel won that race.
The problem with changing your handicapping strategy to revolve around jockeys is that this was one of the all-time greatest jockey influenced examples in the history of stakes races. The vast majority of races have much less if any influence from jockeys.

I think jockeys do have strengths and weaknesses and that it is illogical to preach race shapes and set ups and ignore jockeys altogether, but they don't deserve more than a small consideration.

It was a great trip no doubt and the ride was probably up there in greatest in derby history.

But does the horse get any credit? Sure...he freaked on a rail favoring sloppy track but he still freaked. That horse was much the best yesterday and it seemed to my eye that he wins with just an average trip and not the amazing one that he got. No?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

It was a great trip no doubt and the ride was probably up there in greatest in derby history.

But does the horse get any credit? Sure...he freaked on a rail favoring sloppy track but he still freaked. That horse was much the best yesterday and it seemed to my eye that he wins with just an average trip and not the amazing one that he got. No?

No, he didn't freak.
With an Average trip he could have gotten anywhere from 10th- 4th

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

No, he didn't freak.
With an Average trip he could have gotten anywhere from 10th- 4th

Well i will have to watch it again. Maybe i missed something. Looked to me like a horse won the derby yesterday by open lengths and it looked to me like he ran the best race of his life by at least 20 beyer points...but he didnt freak.

And you say with an average trip that he could have been...10th?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Well i will have to watch it again. Maybe i missed something. Looked to me like a horse won the derby yesterday by open lengths and it looked to me like he ran the best race of his life by at least 20 beyer points...but he didnt freak.

And you say with an average trip that he could have been...10th?

be open to learning something.

Borel kept his horse way back while the others sprinted out on a sloppy track. Then he gambled that he could slide along the rail.

He had a HUGE advantage in both Race Set-Up , and in Ground Loss

The horse certainly didn't run any better than musket man or chocolate candy

[sdjcom]

turn the page next race!!