Thank You Mine That Bird

blackthroatedwind · #1 05-02-2009, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Or you can say we were denied a possibly memorable finish by some sh*t horse from New Mexico who rode the bias and the smartest jockey on the track to a win. What's worse a slow race on off going with a fun finish or some horse that no one could identify who won by six or seven lengths?

What bias....one that helped overmatched horses?

King Glorious · #2 05-02-2009, 08:24 PM

Anyone that mentions a bias as the reason this horse won should never be allowed to watch a race again. Any bias there may have been only added to his margin of victory. He would have won that race had he gone around the grandstand. He was much the best today.

basement bob · #3 05-03-2009, 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Anyone that mentions a bias as the reason this horse won should never be allowed to watch a race again. Any bias there may have been only added to his margin of victory. He would have won that race had he gone around the grandstand. He was much the best today.

i could not agree more. well said.

parsixfarms · #4 05-03-2009, 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What bias....one that helped overmatched horses?

I generally think track bias is overrated, but it seemed that the inside paths were clearly the place to be at Churchill yesterday.

golfer · #5 05-03-2009, 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I generally think track bias is overrated, but it seemed that the inside paths were clearly the place to be at Churchill yesterday.

Completely agree, it wasn't inside speed, just inside.

parsixfarms · #6 05-03-2009, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

Completely agree, it wasn't inside speed, just inside.

Kind of the way the old Keeneland played.

blackthroatedwind · #7 05-03-2009, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

Completely agree, it wasn't inside speed, just inside.

Just curious, what about the other horses on the inside that Mine That Bird catapulted by on his way to victory.....why weren't they helped by the rail?

The winner got a 105 Beyer. If a healthy Quality Road and a healthy I Want Revenge had shown up, DrugS would have cashed his exacta, and only been whining that an impossible horse sucked up for third to cost him the tri and super.

The winner saved us from the most mediocre result in, at least, modern Derby history. But, relatively speaking, he still didn't run THAT well. He looked visually impressive, no doubt, but in many ways it was an illusion.

parsixfarms · #8 05-03-2009, 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Just curious, what about the other horses on the inside that Mine That Bird catapulted by on his way to victory.....why weren't they helped by the rail?

They were just showing the "blimp shot" of the race on the local OTB show. As the field progressed down the backstretch, there were only three horses on the rail: Join in the Dance, who lasted a lot longer than expected; Hold Me Back, who made the only sustained middle move in the race; and Mine That Bird, who was advancing on the rail as the field approached the half mile pole. On the turn the only other horse that dropped down to the rail was Atomic Rain, a horse that even the rail could not assist.

blackthroatedwind · #9 05-03-2009, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

On the turn the only other horse that dropped down to the rail was Atomic Rain, a horse that even the rail could not assist.

A horse who, bad as he was, on paper looked easily as good as the winner. Why would the rail catapult one and not the other?

I'm just not buying it. Don't get me wrong, I don't think the rail hurt, and maybe it helped a little, but the winner RAN......and that's the biggest factor. It was the horse....not the rail and not the rider. Not a criticism of Borel, who is a low percentage jockey, that probably hurts more horses than he helps with his rail riding nonsense, and his act worked yesterday, but let's also not pretend that the rider got in a horse suit and masqueraded himself into the winner's circle.

Bobby Fischer · #10 05-03-2009, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Don't get me wrong, I don't think the rail hurt, and maybe it helped a little, but the winner RAN......and that's the biggest factor. It was the horse....not the rail and not the rider.

I thought you were supposed to be the expert on race set up.

I guess the horse masqueraded as a trips expert and held himself wayyyy off the pace and then gambled that there would be room on the rail and closed inside.

of course the idea that the rail was some kind of conveyor belt is ridiculous

the question is whether they went to fast up front opening the race for a closer and whether he saved ground.

parsixfarms · #11 05-03-2009, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

A horse who, bad as he was, on paper looked easily as good as the winner. Why would the rail catapult one and not the other?

I'm just not buying it. Don't get me wrong, I don't think the rail hurt, and maybe it helped a little, but the winner RAN......and that's the biggest factor. It was the horse....not the rail and not the rider. Not a criticism of Borel, who is a low percentage jockey, that probably hurts more horses than he helps with his rail riding nonsense, and his act worked yesterday, but let's also not pretend that the rider got in a horse suit and masqueraded himself into the winner's circle.

I'm not sure that we really disagree that much. I'm not saying that Mine That Bird won the race BECAUSE of a rail bias. A bias is not going to make winners out of all horses, only those that run and are able to make use of the advantageous conditions. Mine That Bird likely won because he liked the off going, and he got a fortuitous trip, and there was not a lot of running going on from the other 18 starters in the field, and the rail was the place to be.

When I conclude that the rail was the place to be yesterday, just take a look at the chart comments on the winners of the dirt races: Raposa "set pace along the inside"; Riley Tucker "set pace along the inside"; Luv Gov "saved ground" and won with an inside-out move; Glenwood Canyon "close up while racing inside"; Accredit "rated vying for the lead near the rail" with My Pal Charlie the only closer to make up ground late - again inside; Four Gifts "angled in" during the first furlong and also won with and inside-out trip. I could go on, but I think you get the point.

chucklestheclown · #12 05-03-2009, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

A horse who, bad as he was, on paper looked easily as good as the winner. Why would the rail catapult one and not the other?

I'm just not buying it. Don't get me wrong, I don't think the rail hurt, and maybe it helped a little, but the winner RAN......and that's the biggest factor. It was the horse....not the rail and not the rider. Not a criticism of Borel, who is a low percentage jockey, that probably hurts more horses than he helps with his rail riding nonsense, and his act worked yesterday, but let's also not pretend that the rider got in a horse suit and masqueraded himself into the winner's circle.

You people really do go on about nothing. The only paper that matters in racing is the green kind. And Borail did get the Oaks/Derby Double, which was good enough reason for me to bet HIM in the Derby. Might not be sophisticated enough for some, but it worked for my bank account!

golfer · #13 05-03-2009, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Just curious, what about the other horses on the inside that Mine That Bird catapulted by on his way to victory.....why weren't they helped by the rail?

The winner got a 105 Beyer. If a healthy Quality Road and a healthy I Want Revenge had shown up, DrugS would have cashed his exacta, and only been whining that an impossible horse sucked up for third to cost him the tri and super.

The winner saved us from the most mediocre result in, at least, modern Derby history. But, relatively speaking, he still didn't run THAT well. He looked visually impressive, no doubt, but in many ways it was an illusion.

I thought the rail was the place to be the entire day, not just the Derby. Considering that Borel was able to move up from last on the rail, except for having to leave it to go around Advice, I believe, for the most part, the other horses weren't running on it.

Race 1: Raposa, gate to wire, rail.

Race 2: Riley Tucker, gate to wire, rail.

Race 3: Luv Gov, closed up the inside.

Race 4: Glenwood Canyon, stalking trip from the rail.

Race 6: Accredit, gate to wire, rail.

The best effort yesterday off the rail, in my opinion, was Just Jenda, who ran out of gas late, beaten by Four Gifts, who came up the rail.

blackthroatedwind · #14 05-03-2009, 10:38 AM

I hear you, and you have certainly analyzed it FAR better than I have, I just think it detracts a bit from the winner's " performance " to suggest ( not that you were ) that it was a rail driven performance. I had the same discussion with Beyer this morning....and he is on your side.

CSC · #15 05-03-2009, 10:41 AM

If I were looking for overlays for future races, I would be looking at yesterday's card and trying to pinpoint horses with wide trips on the dirt course for future reference.