Who Will Be The Pace Setter In The Derby?

[NTamm1215]

Basing whether a horse who wintered in Dubai can win on what has happened with prior Godolphin entrants is stupid. Not only were the prior Godolphin entrants not particularly good (Worldly Manner, China Visit, Curule, Express Tour, Essence of Dubai) but they were mis-managed by being brough over here too late and given insufficient time to get acclimated.

There are reasons to dislike Desert Party (quality of competition, ugly 2YO races here) but throwing him or Regal Ransom out SIMPLY because they wintered in Dubai is foolish.

NT

[philcski]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Basing whether a horse who wintered in Dubai can win on what has happened with prior Godolphin entrants is stupid. Not only were the prior Godolphin entrants not particularly good (Worldly Manner, China Visit, Curule, Express Tour, Essence of Dubai) but they were mis-managed by being brough over here too late and given insufficient time to get acclimated.

There are reasons to dislike Desert Party (quality of competition, ugly 2YO races here) but throwing him or Regal Ransom out SIMPLY because they wintered in Dubai is foolish.

NT

The Sanford wasn't great but he did win the race. For Regal Ransom, I'll toss the Norfolk as disliking the poly- he was 7/5 in the race for what it's worth.

I would like Regal Ransom a lot more if Pletcher didn't enter that ridiculous Join in the Dance, who has about as much chance of winning the Derby as I do winning the New York Marathon. Of course, he can ruin it for a lot of other horses.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

I would like Regal Ransom a lot more if Pletcher didn't enter that ridiculous Join in the Dance, who has about as much chance of winning the Derby as I do winning the New York Marathon. Of course, he can ruin it for a lot of other horses.

Join in the Dance actually worked a nice quarter mile in 21.60 at FT Calder and was one of the ones I liked.

What was crazy about him though - is that despite the quick and decent looking work - he only RNA'd for 90K ... that after selling for 130K as a September yearling.

Obviously there had to be a reason or story why no one wanted to touch him.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Join in the Dance actually worked a nice quarter mile in 21.60 at FT Calder and was one of the ones I liked.

What was crazy about him though - is that despite the quick and decent looking work - he only RNA'd for 90K ... that after selling for 130K as a September yearling.

Obviously there had to be a reason or story why no one wanted to touch him.

JITD would be a nice fit for races like the Dwyer, Lone Star Derby, etc. not as a sacrificial lamb in the Kentucky Derby. I'm guessing he was a private purchase out of the Arlington race- and shockingly, Pletcher hasn't moved him up an inch.

[CSC]

Regal Ransom's 93 debut beyer is only 3 points lower than POTN best lifetime beyer and better than any of Square Eddie's. Numbers aside he's going to be a good horse at a good price.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Regal Ransom also came out of FT Calder. 10.20 work for him. Nice to see like almost all of the pace in this race came from the same sale.

[CSC]

Plus his race on 2/12/09 was abit misleading, O'Donohue didn't have him in a good position in that race though he was abit slow to start. Alot will be made he rode the bias on DWC day, but when Desert Party came to him he was game and won on his own merit in my opinion. They could have kept running another furlong and he would have had a tough time getting by. That race wasn't a case of a 'Well Armed' alone on the lead ride the bias...

[Travis Stone]

I think Regal Ransom is a useful horse, and there is a very small chance he pulls a War Emblem, but ultimately, unless the track is biased, he'll have to fend-off way too many challengers in my opinion to hang around and win.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think Regal Ransom is a useful horse, and there is a very small chance he pulls a War Emblem, but ultimately, unless the track is biased, he'll have to fend-off way too many challengers in my opinion to hang around and win.

what if its's muddy , will that help him on the front ende- ala go for gin?

[tjfla]

Regal Ransom
Atomic Rain
Join in the Dance

looks like there will be some early speed and some closers will be picking up the pieces

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think Regal Ransom is a useful horse, and there is a very small chance he pulls a War Emblem, but ultimately, unless the track is biased, he'll have to fend-off way too many challengers in my opinion to hang around and win.

From a discussion standpoint, is it your belief his race on DWC day was solely speed bias aided?

Also where do you place Desert Party?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by CSC

From a discussion standpoint, is it your belief his race on DWC day was solely speed bias aided?

Regal Ransom has ability. Kiaran McLaughlin said last summer he was the best 2-year-old in his barn. That said, last time out I think he was able to take advantage of circumstances which enabled him to outrun his ability. I do not think on a fair track he wins, much less with an additional furlong and likely pace competition. I could be wrong, but not wrong enough to lose long-term playing a horse like him.

Originally Posted by CSC

Also where do you place Desert Party?

I wasn't crazy about him as a 2-year-old, I thought he was over-hyped, overrated and his numbers weren't exactly big. But as a 3-year-old he's developed and his UAE Derby was exceptionally strong. I respect him, considering him a win candidate, but not the most likely winner.

[tector]

Whether or not it makes sense to toss a horse depends on the value it offers. I already said I have no issue with using the Dubai horses at a price--my problem is making them one of the favorites and keying upon them.

That being said, the loss of Quality Road makes things easier for all the apparent second tier horses, and seems to denude the race of quality pace. DP is a horse that could benefit from that. It will also make IWR an even shorter priced favorite, which is distasteful from a betting standpoint (unless you don't like him already, of course).

So, I will take a stand against the Dubai horses on top, unless the prices on them are really more than I anticipate.

Good luck however it comes out for you.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Basing whether a horse who wintered in Dubai can win on what has happened with prior Godolphin entrants is stupid. Not only were the prior Godolphin entrants not particularly good (Worldly Manner, China Visit, Curule, Express Tour, Essence of Dubai) but they were mis-managed by being brough over here too late and given insufficient time to get acclimated.

There are reasons to dislike Desert Party (quality of competition, ugly 2YO races here) but throwing him or Regal Ransom out SIMPLY because they wintered in Dubai is foolish.

NT

Actually, it's a great reason to dislike them. Wintering in Dubai has got to be the dumbest way of bringing up a horse for the derby short of running at Santa Anita during the Winter.

That's not to say it's not possible for them to win, but their chances would have been helped tremendously had they stayed in the USA. This seems so self evident that I'm sure even both you and King Glorious would have trouble poking holes in this.

[CSC]

Question to all...I've been reading that Join The Dance will be entered to ensure a fast pace for Dunkirk. My question is will it matter... 24.40, :49.06 and 1:13.31 in the Bluegrass indicates to me he is not even fast enough to get near the lead. Unless Decarlo is sent out with instructions to be a sacrificial lamb, I don't see this horse impacting the dynamics of the race. Is he faster on dirt?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by CSC

Question to all...I've been reading that Join The Dance will be entered to ensure a fast pace for Dunkirk. My question is will it matter... 24.40, :49.06 and 1:13.31 in the Bluegrass indicates to me he is not even fast enough to get near the lead. Unless Decarlo is sent out with instructions to be a sacrificial lamb, I don't see this horse impacting the dynamics of the race. Is he faster on dirt?

I'm pretty sure he can run faster than that if needed...

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm pretty sure he can run faster than that if needed...

Suddenly this horse becomes an interest in the derby because of what he may or may not do.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by CSC

Suddenly this horse becomes an interest in the derby because of what he may or may not do.

Any horse who could have an impact on the pace of a horse race should be of interest.

He's not going to make them go 21 4/5's but he's not going to allow RR to sneak away and go 49 4/5's either.

Add to this equation the two-furlong straight run to the turn, the 150k screaming fans and it makes it interesting.

[Travis Stone]

Forgot my eye rolll...

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm pretty sure he can run faster than that if needed...

yea he's run sub 22 quarters and sub 45 halves

a real speed horse like Z Day blew him away, he might be too cheap to set the pace if someone better actually wants to use horse to get it,

but Join In the Dance has been consistent as far as being a fairly quick starter from the gate as opposed to the type who breaks habitually slow and has to be rushed up with urging.