Bejarano mr hollywood

Originally Posted by philcski

Vic you've been calling races for almost as long as I've been alive (31 years now.) If you want to say that RB had the better horse that's fine, true on previous form and on the tote (4.90-1 vs 6.80-1), but you know as well as I do that going to the better post excuse is pretty weak. Almost as absurd as a trainer going to the "cuppy track" argument.

Post positions in 99% of races are irrelevant. One of the few places they aren't, ironically, are at HP at a mile and a sixteenth on the main.

Post positions as far as overall statistics will prove your point. Individual races though can be a factor. Like today for instance. Bejarano had the rail and that was an unqestioned advantage. It allowed him to dictate tactics to Rosario. Joel's only recourse would have been to do something stupid on Spinning Yarns and compromise her chances at getting second. Reverse the post positions and it's a photo. Just the difference in ground covered would have made the race very close.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Post positions as far as overall statistics will prove your point. Individual races though can be a factor. Like today for instance. Bejarano had the rail and that was an unqestioned advantage. It allowed him to dictate tactics to Rosario. Joel's only recourse would have been to do something stupid on Spinning Yarns and compromise her chances at getting second. Reverse the post positions and it's a photo. Just the difference in ground covered would have made the race very close.

While I agree with most of this, I do think that the track played a major factor in allowing your guy to get 2nd. On a fair turf course, chasing the way he did, especially on the outside and choking his filly down early, would've gotten him run down late for 2nd. But, the argument could always be that he rode the track. I have complaints with Rosario but this certainly wasn't one of his worst rides.

Now, I don't understand why jocks ride the way they do. You're clearly aware of his ground loss in this race and the advantage that the winner had because of the post and having more speed early. Why, then, rather than taking the turn in the 2+ path and chasing OUTSIDE the winner, not get inside, and behind, the speed, and make a single run in the stretch? He was strong enough to hold the filly back early, so it's not like he couldn't have taken her back behind the 4 horse. This is the only way to beat a horse that has an advantage on a speed favoring track. In any event, after the slow 1st quarter, it was all academic. Your guy wasn't winning and the chalk certainly wasn't closing.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

While I agree with most of this, I do think that the track played a major factor in allowing your guy to get 2nd. On a fair turf course, chasing the way he did, especially on the outside and choking his filly down early, would've gotten him run down late for 2nd. But, the argument could always be that he rode the track. I have complaints with Rosario but this certainly wasn't one of his worst rides.

Now, I don't understand why jocks ride the way they do. You're clearly aware of his ground loss in this race and the advantage that the winner had because of the post and having more speed early. Why, then, rather than taking the turn in the 2+ path and chasing OUTSIDE the winner, not get inside, and behind, the speed, and make a single run in the stretch? He was strong enough to hold the filly back early, so it's not like he couldn't have taken her back behind the 4 horse. This is the only way to beat a horse that has an advantage on a speed favoring track. In any event, after the slow 1st quarter, it was all academic. You guy wasn't winning and the chalk certainly wasn't closing.

I know it's early in the meet but there's been 4-5 wirejobs and a couple 2nd-3rd sitters on the turf. There's only been two winners to close from worse than 3rd midrace- and one of them was even money against a very moderate MSW field. I hate to declare a bias unless I'm absolutely sure but this evidence seems pretty strong.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Post positions as far as overall statistics will prove your point. Individual races though can be a factor. Like today for instance. Bejarano had the rail and that was an unqestioned advantage. It allowed him to dictate tactics to Rosario. Joel's only recourse would have been to do something stupid on Spinning Yarns and compromise her chances at getting second. Reverse the post positions and it's a photo. Just the difference in ground covered would have made the race very close.

I watched the race a few more times to make sure I wasn't missing anything. If you want to pin it on something other than RB having the better horse today, since she did it pretty comfortably, you can put it on that ridiculous Warren's Highroller bothering Spinning Yarns early, costing him a better position into the first turn, You Lift Me Up missing the break and not being in her normal position keeping Bootleg Annie company up front (as you noted in the running,) and Bel Air Sizzle not running a lick (and I'm sure the other jockeys, including JR, were waiting on her to make a move SOMEWHERE in the race.)

Really, in the end, they carouseled around there with the moderate early pace so to say Joel Rosario did anything wrong is categorically unfair to him. He did a good job to secure second when the win was out of the question. I just hate the post position argument- especially in a 6 horse field where there is about 3/16ths of a mile to the first turn.