Current Derby Field

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I think the Godolphin jockey assignments are right on.

Not sure if people realize it, but the final time of the UAE Derby was really around 1:48 not the 1:50 it is listed at on the PPs. The track that day brought the front-runners home like no other during the 21 days of racing in Dubai this year, a product of four days of occasional rains and the track being sealed otherwise. The four lengths that Desert Party made up in the race are just about the most of anyone the entire day...if not the most.

Frankie was overly confident on Desert Party...that is practically undeniable.

Both Desert Party and Regal Ransom accomplished their tasks without race day medication and routinely dispatched with older horses (Southern Hemisphere 3YO).

I think both of them have a solid chance.

I think Desert Party has a shot in the derby. But to cite the fact that he and Regal Ransom beat "older horses" in the UAE Derby seems a little absurd.

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I think Desert Party has a shot in the derby. But to cite the fact that he and Regal Ransom beat "older horses" in the UAE Derby seems a little absurd.

You also add in the fact that...

http://www.nytimes.com/1998/10/09/ny...o-5-years.html

now scroll to breeder...

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/ra...ty/connections


and you have the makings of a heartwarming derby story.

Here is some detail on what the guy did for GTech..

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortu...8202/index.htm

His former boss, Guy Snowden, is also a horse breeder. D'awesome.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

You also add in the fact that...

http://www.nytimes.com/1998/10/09/ny...o-5-years.html

now scroll to breeder...

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/ra...ty/connections


and you have the makings of a heartwarming derby story.

Here is some detail on what the guy did for GTech..

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortu...8202/index.htm

His former boss, Guy Snowden, is also a horse breeder. D'awesome.

Cheaters always win. Especially in this game.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

You also add in the fact that...

http://www.nytimes.com/1998/10/09/ny...o-5-years.html

now scroll to breeder...

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/ra...ty/connections


and you have the makings of a heartwarming derby story.

Here is some detail on what the guy did for GTech..

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortu...8202/index.htm

His former boss, Guy Snowden, is also a horse breeder. D'awesome.

Of course, if you speak to Smith's ex-wife, she has more of an emotional story about breeding Desert Party, which she did with her then-husband.

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Of course, if you speak to Smith's ex-wife, she has more of an emotional story about breeding Desert Party, which she did with her then-husband.

I'm sure she does.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I think Desert Party has a shot in the derby. But to cite the fact that he and Regal Ransom beat "older horses" in the UAE Derby seems a little absurd.

but you're forgetting the 'lack of raceday medication'. had the two lost, the fact they lost to older would have been cited. if you like them, you'll justify it. if you don't, it's not a big deal. they seem decent horses-my lack of interest is due to the fact that their approach to the derby has not had past success.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but you're forgetting the 'lack of raceday medication'. had the two lost, the fact they lost to older would have been cited. if you like them, you'll justify it. if you don't, it's not a big deal. they seem decent horses-my lack of interest is due to the fact that their approach to the derby has not had past success.

I can understand your concern based on previous tries - but comparing these two to ANY previous Godolphin Derby horses is a mistake, in my opinion.

The 3YO races in Dubai have increased in quality substantially the last five years through the Carnival, and even more so the past three years with a major influx of horses from the Southern Hemisphere.

If Desert Party and Regal Ransom lost to the older horses in their first or second starts, using age as an excuse is possible, but they handled them well through three consecutive, finishing 15 in front of Soy Libriano in the UAE Derby, an older SH 3YO.

It should be viewed as undeniable that the two horses Godolphin will have in the Derby are their best chances ever, and if you don't believe it, just ask them.

[tector]

Every year people come up excuses for these clowns pissing away a billion dollars with no results. This year will be no different I see.

A $0.00 ROI on the Dubai route to the Derby might just signify something, you know.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by tector

Every year people come up excuses for these clowns pissing away a billion dollars with no results. This year will be no different I see.

A $0.00 ROI on the Dubai route to the Derby might just signify something, you know.

Any interest in reviewing the credentials on the horses who have done it before? Going from Dubai to the Derby that is. The list isn't exactly stellar, and it hasn't happened since 2002, when Essence of Dubai went.

[tector]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Any interest in reviewing the credentials on the horses who have done it before? Going from Dubai to the Derby that is. The list isn't exactly stellar, and it hasn't happened since 2002, when Essence of Dubai went.

True--they ruin most of them before they can even them get back here.

I have heard this crap since the 90s on the old AOL boards, the seeming inevitability that the Sheik must prevail someday.

OK, whatever. Horses coming from overseas, anywhere, are a great angle in the Derby. Sure.

Faith-based handicapping lives!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by tector

I have heard this crap since the 90s on the old AOL boards, the seeming inevitability that the Sheik must prevail someday.

Ah,

The days of such greats as Roger1807, HHLou, Claimboxx, and that dopey CFrischlin guy.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by tector

Every year people come up excuses for these clowns pissing away a billion dollars with no results. This year will be no different I see.

A $0.00 ROI on the Dubai route to the Derby might just signify something, you know.

There's also a $0 ROI in the Derby on horses who made their last start on a synthetic surface in California, a $0 ROI on Todd Pletcher trainees, a $0 ROI on Jeff Mullins trainees, a $0 ROI on Larry Jones trainees and La Derby winners dating back to 1996, and a $0 ROI on Ill Derby winners since 2002.

I've now tossed Pioneerof the Nile, Chocolate Candy, Mr. Hot Stuff, Dunkirk, Advice, I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire, and Musket Man using your logic.

The Derby's a really tough race to win.

NT

[thunderdan09]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

There's also a $0 ROI in the Derby on horses who made their last start on a synthetic surface in California, a $0 ROI on Todd Pletcher trainees, a $0 ROI on Jeff Mullins trainees, a $0 ROI on Larry Jones trainees and La Derby winners dating back to 1996, and a $0 ROI on Ill Derby winners since 2002.

I've now tossed Pioneerof the Nile, Chocolate Candy, Mr. Hot Stuff, Dunkirk, Advice, I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire, and Musket Man using your logic.

The Derby's a really tough race to win.

NT

Absolutely agree with your take. You can signify a number of angles to come up with a $0 ROI in this race. It is one of the most wide-open Derby years that I can remember in my young career of betting horses.

I like hometown favorite, Win Willy (Rebel Stakes winner, 4th Arkansas Derby). He won a cheap MCL race up here at Canterbury and then shipped down to Oaklawn where he has ran very well. I wish they would have taken Berry of this mount do to his lack of experience in the big time, but Mac Robertson is a straight shooter who gives people what they earned. This horse was almost sold for $3 Million following his defeat of Old Fashioned in the Rebel and if someone thinks that highly of this one I will respect him on Saturday. His breeding is okay (Monarchos by a Carson City mare).

He is a big time closer and if he can get the pace to run at, you never know... Look back at some of his races, he hasn't had the best trip in any of them and has ran pretty well up to this race. Odds are he won't get a perfect trip in this race wither with 19 other horses to contend with.

I just really have a feeling the pace scenario is going cause the front runners to break down as they hit the top of the stretch opening the door for an off the pace closer like Win Willy. Could be Dunkirk, Could be Flying Private.

Right now my most realistic candidate would be Dunkirk, but I am always a homer so I will use him and Win Willy to hit the board in all my supers. If I can get that to happen it could be a very big day.

Everyone throwing out the Dubai horses just because of where they prepped are not looking close enough. I would be more worried with the horses with the majority of their earnings over synthetic as tosses. It has been the case over the past decade with the California shippers. Now with Kentucky switching two courses over to Poly it allows you to limit your options even more.

Who knows, I contradict myself every 10 minutes when I look at the entrants. I will bet Dunkirk and Win Willy and hope lightning strikes.

Best of luck to everyone

[robfla]

who is in now that Willie is out?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I can understand your concern based on previous tries - but comparing these two to ANY previous Godolphin Derby horses is a mistake, in my opinion.

The 3YO races in Dubai have increased in quality substantially the last five years through the Carnival, and even more so the past three years with a major influx of horses from the Southern Hemisphere.

If Desert Party and Regal Ransom lost to the older horses in their first or second starts, using age as an excuse is possible, but they handled them well through three consecutive, finishing 15 in front of Soy Libriano in the UAE Derby, an older SH 3YO.

It should be viewed as undeniable that the two horses Godolphin will have in the Derby are their best chances ever, and if you don't believe it, just ask them.

they might be their best chance yet-but that doesn't mean they can do what has yet to be done either. referencing southern hemi horses as a reason to like the two from dubai doesn't exactly inspire confidence-it's not as tho there was an invasor type in the bunch, was there? obviously not, since none of them could handle six months younger competition.

of the two however, desert party imo is the one to watch. but i think the competition the two will face next wknd is far tougher than what they had in dubai.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but i think the competition _______ will face next wknd is far tougher than what they had in _______.

Insert every horse in the Kentucky Derby for the first blank and their previous race locations in the second blank.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Insert every horse in the Kentucky Derby for the first blank and their previous race locations in the second blank.

i guess my point was that some of the horses here have faced tougher competition in the weeks leading up to next saturday compared to what desert party and regal ransom have faced-other than each other that is. for a horse who supposedly is distance challenged, RR certainly has held his own thus far vs his stablemate. how much of his win the other day was the track, how much was himself? everyone is giving desert party a pass in that loss because of the bias. how pronounced was that bias?

desert party seems the better suited for the derby, but i just don't know that the approach the sheikh keeps trying to take (derby via dubai) is the way to go. i guess we'll see.

i do wonder tho if some who are dismissing desert party are doing so due to ownership.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by Danzig

everyone is giving desert party a pass in that loss because of the bias. how pronounced was that bias?

There were 21 days of racing at Nad al Sheba in the 2008/2009 season. On Dubai World Cup night, there were three route races. All were won by horses who contested the pace and were on it, or literally, just off it (Two Step Salsa, Regal Ransom, Well Armed). No other day of racing produced similar results with horses winning consistently from the same position.

Of course, there were four days of intermittent rain leading up to the races with the track being sealed for the duration, save training hours.

[brockguy]

Its quite an achievement for 3 year olds to beat older horses this early in the season - but the "Classic" generation this year in Dubai was to put it mildly - woeful.

I think Regal Ransom has no shot at staying 10f, so Desert Party seems to be the one for me.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by brockguy

Its quite an achievement for 3 year olds to beat older horses this early in the season - but the "Classic" generation this year in Dubai was to put it mildly - woeful.

I think Regal Ransom has no shot at staying 10f, so Desert Party seems to be the one for me.

Please share your rationale for why Regal Ransom can't stay 10 furlongs.