4/21: Derby Works & Notes

gales0678 · #1 04-21-2009, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docicu3

I got my first look at the TGH patterns for the derby last night to look for horses that have run a race where they were given a zero or a negative number in a route, as I remembered that apparently no horse has won the derby without running a TGH number of zero or below in a 2 turn race, which is somewhat akin to Jon White's Beyer over a hundred idea.

Quality Road, Dunkirk, West Side Bernie, Musket Man, IWR are all horses that fit this criteria. I was surprised to see that "Just a Coincidence" for his third in the Wood received a -0.5 which meets the criteria.

Is there any chance this horse gets in from where he is on the earnings list?

The TGH pattern is actually impressive as the last 4 races since January are all improving steadily. I am not saying he is likely to win but a third or fourth to round out the exotics might not be out of the question......

did you get a chance to look at what the "rags" said also?

CSC · #2 04-21-2009, 11:10 AM

Baffert usually works his horses fast for atleast one work before a big race, I would surmise this was not Pioneerof the Nile's last serious work before the derby: 1:00.3

LARHAGE · #3 04-21-2009, 12:03 PM

Also Pioneer's fastest works are in company, he was alone today so not a bad work, I would guess the next work will be in company to get him going.

Kasept · #4 04-21-2009, 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

Baffert usually works his horses fast for atleast one work before a big race, I would surmise this was not Pioneerof the Nile's last serious work before the derby: 1:00.3

Don't worry about the time so much here as the track was pretty dull today. He actually went another quarter to make it a full 7f effort. The work was very solid and Baffert was really pleased with it. Next week's outing will be a slight blowout so this was his 'major' work according to Baffert.

Quote:

Originally Posted by LARHAGE

Also Pioneer's fastest works are in company, he was alone today so not a bad work, I would guess the next work will be in company to get him going.

Baffert said something to that effect today in his typically jocular fashion... He said had he been in company with a target they'd make Pioneer the Derby favorite off the work.

gales0678 · #5 04-21-2009, 12:57 PM

steve - did you see musket man or derek ryan ?

Kasept · #6 04-21-2009, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

steve - did you see musket man or derek ryan ?

Not yet.. Will get to them tomorrow most likely. Musket Man is barned with the Godolphin pair, so I'll try to get to Ryan and Rick Mettee. Today was heavily skewed to the Pioneer and Revenge works, (which ended up on top of each other), and then Chocolate Candy.

gales0678 · #7 04-21-2009, 01:06 PM

how did Chocolate Candy look ?

jms62 · #8 04-21-2009, 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Don't worry about the time so much here as the track was pretty dull today. He actually went another quarter to make it a full 7f effort. The work was very solid and Baffert was really pleased with it. Next week's outing will be a slight blowout so this was his 'major' work according to Baffert.

Baffert said something to that effect today in his typically jocular fashion... He said had he been in company with a target they'd make Pioneer the Derby favorite off the work.

I can see this coming a mile away.. POTN will drag me in and come Derby evening I will once again vow never to bet a syn only horse until one wins.

miraja2 · #9 04-21-2009, 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

I can see this coming a mile away.. POTN will drag me in and come Derby evening I will once again vow never to bet a syn only horse until one wins.

The same might happen to me. I like I Want Revenge a lot on top at this point, but I might like POTN underneath. Combined with his solid dirt/10f pedigree, positive works over the surface would obviously be a good sign, but I am not sure I quite agree with this statement from Welsch:
"Any questions regarding Pioneerof the Nile's ability to adapt to dirt after racing exclusively on synthetic surfaces throughout his career should have been erased after watching him glide across the track immediately after the break." (http://www.drf.com/news/article/103135.html)

Isn't saying that one good work means that "any questions...have been erased," along with calling him a "demon on the dirt" in the title of the article, a bit over the top?

blackthroatedwind · #10 04-21-2009, 06:47 PM

I look forward to a full post-Derby review of this thread. Aside from horses changing their colors for the Derby, I think the misleading information will be plentiful.

We'll see.

CSC · #11 04-21-2009, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Don't worry about the time so much here as the track was pretty dull today. He actually went another quarter to make it a full 7f effort. The work was very solid and Baffert was really pleased with it. Next week's outing will be a slight blowout so this was his 'major' work according to Baffert.

Baffert said something to that effect today in his typically jocular fashion... He said had he been in company with a target they'd make Pioneer the Derby favorite off the work.

Nothing beats confidence, typical Baffert. I just listened to Mike Welsch's DRF report, didn't get home in time for ATRB. If you are a backer of POTN you had to like what you heard. One of too many to consider.

docicu3 · #12 04-21-2009, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

did you get a chance to look at what the "rags" said also?

Don't use Rags...TGH is a better product

gales0678 · #13 04-21-2009, 12:27 PM