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#1
04-20-2009, 12:43 PM
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Whoa! Just noticed that 5Dimes has put up some Derby futures. 5Dimes now has the best price on 7 of the 8 lowest odds horses. (all except IWR):
Dunkirk 6.5 Quality Road 6.25 Friesan Fire 8.25 Pioneer of the Nile 8.5 Papa Clem 22 Chocolate Candy 21 Desert Party 26 Combining these future odds with the ones above (and eliminating Giant Oak) results in a vig of 2.8% (plus the remote chance any horse not listed wins the race.) --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson 
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#2
04-21-2009, 11:24 AM
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Best odds this morning:
I Want Revenge 4.5 World Sports Exch Dunkirk 6.5 5Dimes Quality Road 6.25 5Dimes Friesan Fire 8.25 5Dimes Pioneer of the Nile 8.5 5Dimes Papa Clem 22 5Dimes Chocolate Candy 21 5Dimes Desert Party 26 5Dimes Musket Man 33 5Dimes Square Eddie 40.5 TheGreek Hold Me Back 30.5 TheGreek General Quarters 28.5 TheGreek Regal Ransom 40.5 TheGreek West Side Bernie 51 Bookmaker Flying Private 60.5 TheGreek Mine That Bird 80.5 TheGreek Charitable Man 85.5 TheGreek Atomic Rain 99 Bookmaker Advice 40.5 TheGreek Odds have dropped on IWR and Musket Man, otherwise no change from yesterday. I removed Take the Points from the list because Pletcher said he is unlikely to enter. --Dunbar Effective "takeout" is 2.8% plus chance some other horse wins.
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#3
04-21-2009, 11:33 AM
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Wynn Las Vegas beats that list with these horses:
Quality Road 7-1 Flying Private 75-1 Atomic Rain 125-1 --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#4
04-21-2009, 11:41 AM
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9/2 on I Want Revenge and 7/1 on Quality Road both look like gifts.
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#5
04-21-2009, 02:07 PM
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Quote:
I think IWR goes off at 7/2 or 4/1 (right around $10.00) and QR goes off at 5/1 or 11/2. I could see Regal Ransom at under 40-1 on the tote as well. For sake of argument, here's what I see it at a 16% takeout (with the top 20 in earnings expected to go): Horse odds I Want Revenge 3.70 Quality Road 5.40 Pioneerof the Nile 7.50 Dunkirk 8.40 Friesan Fire 10.90 General Quarters 16.90 Papa Clem 18.60 Square Eddie 19.40 Regal Ransom 22.00 Desert Party 22.00 Musket Man 23.70 Hold Me Back 27.10 Chocolate Candy 27.90 West Side Bernie 29.60 Win Willy 33.90 Advice 42.40 Mr. Hot Stuff 63.70 Summer Bird 63.70 Mine That Bird 67.90 Flying Private 67.90
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you Last edited by philcski : 04-21-2009 at 02:30 PM.
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#7
04-21-2009, 05:39 PM
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Chocolate Candy at 27.9 : 1 even with a personal favorite of mine Mike Smith aboard would be attractive if he went off in the same ball park on the day of the derby. He's the best overlay on the list in my opinion, if you like POTN best not to forget him.
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