Derby Fever: Where 'stupid' is contagious

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Mine That Bird seems like a mediocrity on synthetics with no promise of dirt improvement.

Never mind that Mine That Bird's two highest Beyer figures came on regular dirt in his last two starts.

Spring 3 year olds can mature rapidly, and maybe Breen sees him going in the right direction and believes he is coming up to the race the right way.

Except when they are named "Mine That Bird", apparently.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The best horse B L Woolley Jr. has ever trained ...

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Never mind that Mine That Bird's two highest Beyer figures came on regular dirt in his last two starts.

Except when they are named "Mine That Bird", apparently.

RT,

I loved Mine That Bird last fall and going into the Breeder's Cup. But if those two 3yo races are the sum of his improvement from 2 to 3, (80-81 from 2 yo highs of 76-78), while going synthetic to dirt on top of it, things aren't promising for him to show the leap to be competitive in the Derby. Look at Just a Coincidence, West Side Bernie or Hold Me Back (if you want to see a synthetic surface improver) for patterns of healthy development in three year olds.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Kasept

RT,

I loved Mine That Bird last fall and going into the Breeder's Cup. But if those two 3yo races are the sum of his improvement from 2 to 3, (80-81 from 2 yo highs of 76-78), while going synthetic to dirt on top of it, things aren't promising for him to show the leap to be competitive in the Derby. Look at Just a Coincidence, West Side Bernie or Hold Me Back (if you want to see a synthetic surface improver) for patterns of healthy development in three year olds.

I apologize for being unaware of yet more wisdom from DrugS, this regarding Hold Me Back. I personally enjoy that horse so it's great news if he totally has more upside from that race that I knew about. I've heard grumbling about his loss on dirt at 2, some from ESPN on tv I think, but clearly they were just talking of which they knew not. Did you comment on his stride recently on your show or did I get that from reading/hearing Steve Haskin?

About your first post, perhaps 'stupid' was unfair. I do question the wisdom and I don't seem to find any information that qualifies him like 'he's just now coming around mentally' or 'he's really improving'. It sounds like they're running him because he's a nice horse and they have hopes--there are worse reasons but so many horses get ruined doing that. I'm concerned enough for Dunkirk but I was watching him after the race whenever they showed him--he seemed to be plotting revenge as much as a horse could. Maybe he was just cheesed off that he was being unsaddled outside of the winner's circle.

About Atomic Rain in the Wood, I did go back and look at it, and far be it for me to be one of those knuckleheads that argues with you 10 ways to Sunday that the sky is green, so I'll admit he's a nicer seeming horse than I remember and certainly I'd be more likely to call him at least promising although not Derby-promising. I still worry that a horse with what he's shown up to now could be going in over his head and ruined. Promise only takes you so far. Why not hold out for the Preakness and let the waters part after the Derby? I don't see how you come away from the Wood run thinking 'Derby winner's circle here we come!' Maybe G1 placing here we come, but with this Derby field? So many have pulled their horses out this year, trying not to ruin them, that the last 3 or 4 slots are being eyed hungrily and suddenly folks are getting Derby fever that had resigned themselves to being on the outside looking in. I do apologize for not being more tactful in my frustration.