Who Will Be The Pace Setter In The Derby?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's actually not very fast - coming out of two extremely slow paced races he will have to show a lot more early speed - which he might be capable of - to make the early lead in the Derby.

But if he does ... I think he'd be a prime candidate to finish 18th beaten 25 lengths.

He dawdled in the Blue Grass and Tampa Derby but seems to have some natural speed, which might be enough to make him the sacrificial lamb that provides Quality Road a target.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'm not sure QR needs a target.

If I was JRV I wouldn't hesitate to place him on the lead if he breaks clean and no one else is being sent.

But ... JRV has never seen a wide stalking/pressing trip he didn't like. I'm sure he'd rather have him a settled 2nd - outside of the pace setter - and about a half length or a length off the lead

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not sure QR needs a target.

If I was JRV I wouldn't hesitate to place him on the lead if he breaks clean and no one else is being sent.

But ... JRV has never seen a wide stalking/pressing trip he didn't like. I'm sure he'd rather have him a settled 2nd - outside of the pace setter - and about a half length or a length off the lead

I'm not sure he needs a target either and I would expect JV to take the initiative as well if no one goes.

It looks as if in the effort to get Quality Road to relax, because everyone determined that he was an unrateable lunatic after losing to Theregoesjojo , he was trained to stalk in that cozy 2nd spot. The pace might not have been quick in the Fla Derby but he looked awfully comfortable in that "watchdog" spot.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I wonder how much not having lasix had to do with Quality Road's allowance loss?

He's run two monster races since adding lasix - and the way he was so strongly bet in a very tough Fountain of Youth field off that allowance loss suggests to me that a plausable excuse for the alw races was possibly floating around.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I wonder how much not having lasix had to do with Quality Road's allowance loss?

He's run two monster races since adding lasix - and the way he was so strongly bet in a very tough Fountain of Youth field off that allowance loss suggests to me that a plausable excuse for the alw races was possibly floating around.

What did you make of the fractions in the Florida Derby given the condition of the track?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by CSC

What did you make of the fractions in the Florida Derby given the condition of the track?

that's my question about that race. how good was QR, and how much did he benefit from the track? but for his first around two turns, i thought he looked very good.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Danzig

that's my question about that race. how good was QR, and how much did he benefit from the track? but for his first around two turns, i thought he looked very good.

That's the debate, souped up tracks/flattering numbers/speed biases. We know where Pletcher stands with his frank comments after the race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

What did you make of the fractions in the Florida Derby given the condition of the track?

They were legit.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

They were legit.

Using your theory on speed being brutal on synth tracks in this case specifically SA, weren't you be impressed by Papa Clem in the Robert Lewis when he almost wired the field, in that race was IWR and POTN.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I wonder how much not having lasix had to do with Quality Road's allowance loss?

He's run two monster races since adding lasix - and the way he was so strongly bet in a very tough Fountain of Youth field off that allowance loss suggests to me that a plausable excuse for the alw races was possibly floating around.

didn't he come out of that loss to jojo with a cough? seems several horses in jerkens' barn had a virus during that time.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

the way he was so strongly bet in a very tough Fountain of Youth field off that allowance loss suggests to me that a plausable excuse for the alw races was possibly floating around.

A really sharp handicapper should have noted that being the best physically and having a top-class race in his debut, and working as well as he did leading up to the FOY, that he should have been given an good chance with TOFP and JoJo. We shouldn't have needed an insider's plausable excuse.

We messed up.

We all like to think that we are tremendous judges of talent, but the fact is we should have been raving about how Quality Road towers over these others in physical talent, and 5-1 would seem like a fair range of odds.

Compare them now, JoJo and TOFP didn't shrink ! QR didn't grow a whole bunch more! We missed an obvious thing because we were caught up in other stuff like move-ups ,and we we wrote off QR prematurely, even though he was working like a monster up to the FOY

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Compare them now,

A lot of things seem obvious after the fact.

Theregoesjojo had just beaten Quality Road by 2 3/4 lengths .. and the hot pace of the race projected much better for him than QR ... yet the two horses were almost the same price.

He was no bargain at 5/1 on paper. He should have been a bigger price in fact.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

A lot of things seem obvious after the fact.

Theregoesjojo had just beaten Quality Road by 2 3/4 lengths .. and the hot pace of the race projected much better for him than QR ... yet the two horses were almost the same price.

He was no bargain at 5/1 on paper. He should have been a bigger price in fact.

The money in the pools is not an equal representation of public opinion. In reality a minority controls the pools with their larger wagers.
"He should have been a bigger price" - yea according to public opinion he should have been 8-1 , after the good players bet he was 5-1.

I bet 200 each on Phil and JOJO, but I can see after the fact that I screwed up. Evaluating your own past performance isn't about whether you win or lose(in the short term), and it isn't about what Joe-Public "should have" thought at the time of the race.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I wonder how much not having lasix had to do with Quality Road's allowance loss?

He's run two monster races since adding lasix - and the way he was so strongly bet in a very tough Fountain of Youth field off that allowance loss suggests to me that a plausable excuse for the alw races was possibly floating around.

I think his loss was due to his slow break and then being sent. Or am I thinking of a different race?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

That would be his only loss.

I didn't see much of a trip excuse myself. He made wild improvement in his next race.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

That would be his only loss.

I didn't see much of a trip excuse myself. He made wild improvement in his next race.

Yeah, if I remember, he broke a tad slow and was hard sent to make up the lost early ground.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yep - and I wouldn't exactly say he dueled with Obligatory and was softened up bigtime.

The pace in the FOY figured to be much stronger and it was.