I see big gaps back to 3rd.

[blackthroatedwind]

I agree it's over 50% that at least one runs in the exacta. Since each horse is roughly 20% to win the race, I guess it's fair to say they are at least 30% to finish first or second, so both being out could be 70% squared. However, they're conditional probabilities, so if one runs out the chances of the other finishing first or second greatly increases.

Feels like 60% to me that at least one is in the number......roughly.

As for the Oaks.....it's higher.