Weekend Beyers (Genl Qrtrs 95; Papa Clem 101)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yeah - I always wondered why they don't put a question mark next to some of the tougher figures to make.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

KEE-Jenny Wiley: FOREVER TOGETHER 98

25.92, 51.83, 1:17.12, 1:40.80, 1:46.93
Forever Together did a wonderful job to attain a respectable beyer considering the snail's pace in the Jenny Wiley.

[Travis Stone]

Forevever Together was more impressive than Mr. Sidney...

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yeah - I always wondered why they don't put a question mark next to some of the tougher figures to make.

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

I wish the Beyer folks would just not assign a race a # ,like the Maker's Mark, instead of making a total GUESS.

Then again, those that actually pay attention to how these things are made will have an advantage when they run back, likely in the Woodford Reserve. Just because a 100 makes it fit best doesn't mean it's right.

I hardly buy the DRF anymore, other than for the news, because of numbers like this.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

It would appear as though the Arkansas Derby Beyer is a 101 now.

http://www.drf.com/stakeresults/drfStakeResults.jsp


As I mentioned - it's always a little tricky making 9f figures for Oaklawn Park when it's the only race carded that day at the distance because of the way the stretch run is configured ... but I got a 98 ... one point lower than the 99 they came out with on Monday.

That means that the 3rd place finisher - who was 15 lengths out of it after a quarter mile - now has his number upgraded to a 99. That's an interesting horse ... a 3rd time starter still elidigble for N1X alw races with major stamina breeding for an obscure - but obviously competent trainer in Tim Ice. His Ark Derby start was just the 100th start in Tim Ice's training career. He started training in 2008.

His low profile jock couldn't even make the 118lbs weight assignment for the race. Hard to say how much horse he is or isn't .. but it can't be that flattering to Old Fashioned or Papa Clem that a lightly raced horse like that was eating up as much ground on them as he was. Strong pace and all.

[ninetoone]

I wonder if Summer Bird is looking at a jockey change soon...?

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

I wonder if Summer Bird is looking at a jockey change soon...?

Wasn't Rosier the jock on that HBO special with Sellers and Romero a few years back?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I thought he might be ... the ass shot scene in that was uncalled for.

The dude was pigging down on burgers and fries in that show if I recall .. big shock he couldn't make the 118lbs he needed to in the Arkansas Derby.

[NTamm1215]

Rosier was the one from the HBO special.

Tim Ice also went out on his own at Louisiana Downs last May/June and began very slowly while training mostly claimers. He has clearly stepped up his game in 2009 winning at a 18% clip.

NT

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It would appear as though the Arkansas Derby Beyer is a 101 now.

http://www.drf.com/stakeresults/drfStakeResults.jsp


As I mentioned - it's always a little tricky making 9f figures for Oaklawn Park when it's the only race carded that day at the distance because of the way the stretch run is configured ... but I got a 98 ... one point lower than the 99 they came out with on Monday.

That means that the 3rd place finisher - who was 15 lengths out of it after a quarter mile - now has his number upgraded to a 99. That's an interesting horse ... a 3rd time starter still elidigble for N1X alw races with major stamina breeding for an obscure - but obviously competent trainer in Tim Ice. His Ark Derby start was just the 100th start in Tim Ice's training career. He started training in 2008.

His low profile jock couldn't even make the 118lbs weight assignment for the race. Hard to say how much horse he is or isn't .. but it can't be that flattering to Old Fashioned or Papa Clem that a lightly raced horse like that was eating up as much ground on them as he was. Strong pace and all.

i don't think it was much of a race, considering as you said the third place runner. i know POTN fans think the papa clem win further flatters him, but i would have to disagree. i think hands down the best horse out of oaklawn this year is headed to the oaks.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i don't think it was much of a race, considering as you said the third place runner. i know POTN fans think the papa clem win further flatters him, but i would have to disagree. i think hands down the best horse out of oaklawn this year is headed to the oaks.

No doubt about that.
I'm not a Pioneer fan but I don't see how the results of Papa Clem and IWR can do anything but flatter him.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'm not a Pioneer fan but I don't see how the results of Papa Clem and IWR can do anything but flatter him.

This continues to be the most bizarre conclusion being drawn and totally indefensible. The results of different animals on a different surface has no influence on what should be expected from Pioneerof the Nile when he goes to that different surface. The factors are unrelated.

The performances don't even flatter POTN as a synthetic surface performer because all we can conclude is that Papa Clem and I Want Revenge may be less competitive on sythetic. Their efforts simply cannot be a precursor of what POTN himself will do on dirt. Why is this so difficult for people to grasp? He may move up. He may be the same. He may be worse. We won't know until he runs a race or two on dirt.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yep. All you can do is use stuff like pedigree, running style, and the trainers past management of said horse to project into grey areas.

But you never know until they try it.

Pioneer of the Nile has worked nine times on dirt before anyway ... including 3 times in fairly pokey time from the gate. That was with Mott - I'm sure Baffert will have him working much sharper now when he gets back on dirt.

[King Glorious]

I don't think anyone is saying it moves him up for sure. But the fact that those two horses have gone on to win some very important races speaks well to the quality of horses that he's beaten. I'm not sure how anyone can dispute that fact. While people can question the quality of competition that IWR was beating in NY, we can question how strong the Arkansas Derby was, we can question what was down in Louisiana....we can't question that Pioneer was beating some really good horses. Whether he will move up or down or stay the same is to be seen. But I don't think those subsequent performances by his vanquished foes hurts him at all and they would make anyone take a second look at him. I guarantee that if IWR and Papa Clem had come to the dirt and flopped, EVERYONE would be pointing to that and saying "see, you can't trust the form of those Cali horses on the junk." GUARANTEED.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Kasept

This continues to be the most bizarre conclusion being drawn and totally indefensible. The results of different animals on a different surface has no influence on what should be expected from Pioneerof the Nile when he goes to that different surface. The factors are unrelated.

The performances don't even flatter POTN as a synthetic surface performer because all we can conclude is that Papa Clem and I Want Revenge may be less competitive on sythetic. Their efforts simply cannot be a precursor of what POTN himself will do on dirt. Why is this so difficult for people to grasp? He may move up. He may be the same. He may be worse. We won't know until he runs a race or two on dirt.

i agree, and have said the same in the past. some go purely by the win for papa clem to say it flatters-but since i don't think much of the race, i don't think much of the win anyway-a double whammy.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

This continues to be the most bizarre conclusion being drawn and totally indefensible. The results of different animals on a different surface has no influence on what should be expected from Pioneerof the Nile when he goes to that different surface. The factors are unrelated.

The performances don't even flatter POTN as a synthetic surface performer because all we can conclude is that Papa Clem and I Want Revenge may be less competitive on sythetic. Their efforts simply cannot be a precursor of what POTN himself will do on dirt. Why is this so difficult for people to grasp? He may move up. He may be the same. He may be worse. We won't know until he runs a race or two on dirt.

Not 100% sure this isn't a bit to black and white..While I certainly agree with most of this, you do have to give POTN a few class points.. This was the party line on Zenyatta as well until she won the Apple Blossum.. I am thinking we are all dissing POTN to much and although many don't want ANY part of him I am thinking he is at least 4th choice.. I think his last is a pretty good indication he has some class. That was a horror show and weird trip and although he was not in any MOTO trouble he certainly was way out of his desired element.. The problem is he will be overbet because of Baffert and his record in the Derby.. At 10 to 1 or better he would certainly be betable