Dunkirk -- 2 Questions

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This horse can't really control the pace in the Derby. He's just not good enough. At best, and most likely, he tries to sit a stalking trip, and prays that nothing else is coming. Problem is, there are too many horses in the race for QR to be the only horse sitting pretty on the turn. There will be multiple moves in the Derby, and (especially if the pace is fast) the race will most certainly collapse. Probably not a complete collapse but certainly not one where the horse inheriting the lead wins the race. Add to this that Velazquez is about as reliable as Prado these days and you have a very poor bet. With all the focus on POTN as the toss horse in the Derby, QR and FF make much better sense as tosses (to WIN) and they will be shorter odds.

I disagree and I think you're making some generalizations.

1. I hate trying to figure out what the pace scenario is going to be for a race that hasn't even drawn and has a field that is in flux until three days prior. However, I don't agree that "he's just not good enough" to control the pace in the Derby.

2. There could very easily be multiple moves in the Derby, especially considering there are many pace pressers heading to the race but not necessarily speed horses at this point in time. I don't really think that's a big issue, though, if QR is able to stalk the pace in a Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, Barbaro, Big Brown type fashion.

3. I think the whole thing about the Derby pace collapsing is over-blown. There's just not enough speed pointing to the Derby right now to envision a pace collapse. The most plausible scenario I could imagine is Regal Ransom getting stupid and horses like FF and QR getting run into the ground chasing him. I just don't see it happening.

4. I'm not a jockey capper and I think that Johnny V is as good if not better than Chavez, Santos, Elliott, Smith, and Borel and they've each won a Derby in this decade.

I think there's a big difference between a horse who has chased dawdling paces, taken over and kicked clear against poor to moderate late runners and a horse who has stalked good fractions, taken over and at least in his biggest race to date held off a pretty good horse, who might have been disadvantaged by pace.

NT

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think there's a big difference between a horse who has chased dawdling paces, taken over and kicked clear against poor to moderate late runners and a horse who has stalked good fractions, taken over and at least in his biggest race to date held off a pretty good horse, who might have been disadvantaged by pace.

NT

I'll address this point because some of the others are contained within it. He held off Dunkirk because he got an absolutely perfect setup. It wasn't even about the track being speed favoring, which most seem to be focusing on (including Pletcher) or pace (as the rest of the field went backwards). It was about Dunkirk having to run on the turn, significantly, wide and on his own, with no help from the field, against a horse that had sat a perfect trip (relative to the runner up). Now, why would any horse not look good under those circumstances? (And I don't think his FOY was any better -- less distance, more distance challenged types, on a track that was producing high figures all meet.) When will QR ever get another trip like that? Certainly not in the Derby. Do I want this horse at (relatively) low odds?

It's not about the Derby collapsing or how fast the pace is but rather QR actually having to run a bit more with Dunkirk or some other closer running the same. This involves just just a single horse moving 1st on the turn and forcing QR to go with him. Under those circumstances, not far fetched given the size of the field and that there will be a few horses in the race who can actually get a distance, this horse will have to run a bit. Maybe he has it in him. But the significant run Dunkirk made against him doesn't make it appear very likely to me.

Compare his last two races to those of I Want Revenge, for example.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'll address this point because some of the others are contained within it. He held off Dunkirk because he got an absolutely perfect setup. It wasn't even about the track being speed favoring, which most seem to be focusing on (including Pletcher) or pace (as the rest of the field went backwards). It was about Dunkirk having to run on the turn, significantly, wide and on his own, with no help from the field, against a horse that had sat a perfect trip (relative to the runner up). Now, why would any horse not look good under those circumstances? (And I don't think his FOY was any better -- less distance, more distance challenged types, on a track that was producing high figures all meet.) When will QR ever get another trip like that? Certainly not in the Derby. Do I want this horse at (relatively) low odds?

It's not about the Derby collapsing or how fast the pace is but rather QR actually having to run a bit more with Dunkirk or some other closer running the same. This involves just just a single horse moving 1st on the turn and forcing QR to go with him. Under those circumstances, not far fetched given the size of the field and that there will be a few horses in the race who can actually get a distance, this horse will have to run a bit. Maybe he has it in him. But the significant run Dunkirk made against him doesn't make it appear very likely to me.

Compare his last two races to those of I Want Revenge, for example.

I completely understand what you're saying. However, I don't put as much stock in Dunkirk's wide move because he is more likely to have to make that type of move each time he runs, he had made that move in each of his first two starts, and GP's wide turns lend themselves well to wide moves, much more so than a place like CD. That being said, it's pretty safe to say that QR's trip in the Fla Derby was good.

My opinion of his FOY effort has less to do with his figure and more to do with the finishing position of the horses who also participated in the pace. He was the only one of them running at the end and the fact that he turned back Theregoesjojo, who I think is a one-run, one-turn horse, shows how well he ran on that afternoon.

I bolded your last statement because I think IWR, like QR and FF is a great case in point when it comes to trips. His Gotham win in my opinion was one of the easiest trips of the prep season. Stalking that pace while hounding a bona fide sprinter and drawing off late amounted to a good effort but everything went his way.

In the Wood he had everything superficial happen to him that a novice trip handicapper loves to see. The poor break, traffic, late split of horses makes everyone, Tom Durkin included, focus on how he was "in trouble throughout." However, as you astutely pointed out this morning, the race flow really played into his hands. The 2nd quarter of the Wood was significantly faster than the first and the pacesetters were basically a bunch of bums just waiting to spit it in the lane. The race fell apart at the eighth pole and he basically last moved them as you like to say.

I think there's a big difference between the way IWR ran and if he had somehow been foolishly rushed up going the backstretch (a la Gomez on Massone). He was given a perfectly patient ride, one which Talamo probably doesn't get enough credit for. Even an average jockey can look great when he has enough confidence in his animal to be patient.

NT

[Bobby Fischer]

Quality Road will probably not get to easily establish great position , turn on "cruise-control" and sit pretty until he makes the last move as in the Florida Derby.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Compare his last two races to those of I Want Revenge, for example.

IWR - Gotham - Rated outside a weak rival on a moderate pace and crushed them while running extremely fast late. - the only question being that another horse in that same race went just as fast late...

IWR - Wood - left at the gate - unhurried behind a mediocre field with a fast set-up, was forced to make a late run checking and waiting behind a wall of horses and easily passed his out-classed rivals in late stretch.

they were both different for obvious reasons

they were similar because the key questions for both horses in some ways went unanswered, - although IWR appeared to be able to handle class adversity if we make an educated guess forward from his low-class adversity in the wood.