4/11 (OP): Arkansas Derby; Northern Spur; Instant Racing

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i guess i didn't think it was a complex problem whether old fashioned would like 9f, so i have no secrets to share.

I thought Old Fashioned would get the 9f at Oaklawn, but I held no illusions about his chances in the Derby.

There were a lot of excuses made after the Southwest, particularly when the Southwest fractions were compared to the fractions of a filly/mare claimer run at a mile two races earlier on the Southwest card. Some even reached back to Smarty Jones's Southwest to put a positive spin on Old Fashioned's Southwest. A Smarty Jones he was not. Probably not even a Rockport Harbor.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

I thought Old Fashioned would get the 9f at Oaklawn, but I held no illusions about his chances in the Derby.

There were a lot of excuses made after the Southwest, particularly when the Southwest fractions were compared to the fractions of a filly/mare claimer run at a mile two races earlier on the Southwest card. Some even reached back to Smarty Jones's Southwest to put a positive spin on Old Fashioned's Southwest. A Smarty Jones he was not. Probably not even a Rockport Harbor.

he almost did get it tho, didn't he? i just wonder how many from yesterday race really go on to do much?

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Danzig

he almost did get it tho, didn't he? i just wonder how many from yesterday race really go on to do much?

He probably would have won if he hadn't thrown down that 22 and change opening quarter. I give him credit for putting up a fight in the stretch after his earlier efforts. I don't see a winner of a Triple Crown race from the rest of the bunch. Papa Clem will go on to win his share of stakes, and could clean up on the minor (Iowa-West Virginia-Pennsylvania-Indiana-Super) Derby circuit. Summer Bird ran well in only his third career run and second time around two turns, so he might develop into a nice horse.

What do you make of the one mile Northern Spur run two races earlier? Fast fractions of 22.69, 45.79, and 1:10.98, and the horses 1-2-3 at those calls finish 1-3-4. The final time was slightly faster than the time for the one mile Instant Racing, but the closing quarter for the Instant Racing was almost two seconds faster.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

He probably would have won if he hadn't thrown down that 22 and change opening quarter. I give him credit for putting up a fight in the stretch after his earlier efforts. I don't see a winner of a Triple Crown race from the rest of the bunch. Papa Clem will go on to win his share of stakes, and could clean up on the minor (Iowa-West Virginia-Pennsylvania-Indiana-Super) Derby circuit. Summer Bird ran well in only his third career run and second time around two turns, so he might develop into a nice horse.

What do you make of the one mile Northern Spur run two races earlier? Fast fractions of 22.69, 45.79, and 1:10.98, and the horses 1-2-3 at those calls finish 1-3-4. The final time was slightly faster than the time for the one mile Instant Racing, but the closing quarter for the Instant Racing was almost two seconds faster.

it seems oaklawn has been favoring early speed as it did in years past. it's telling on the quality of the two who were up front early behind OF in my opinion. they faded to last and second to last i believe. jones said that he made an 11th hour change due to how the track was playing; that he had expected to lay off papa clem thru moderate fractions but changed tactics. ooops
i had the tv on for the spur, but only half paid attention to it. completely missed the instant racing.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

He probably would have won if he hadn't thrown down that 22 and change opening quarter. I give him credit for putting up a fight in the stretch after his earlier efforts. I don't see a winner of a Triple Crown race from the rest of the bunch. Papa Clem will go on to win his share of stakes, and could clean up on the minor (Iowa-West Virginia-Pennsylvania-Indiana-Super) Derby circuit. Summer Bird ran well in only his third career run and second time around two turns, so he might develop into a nice horse.

yea that was a weak field. Win Willy almost went off at 2nd choice. Papa Clem had a slow lead in the slop in La. Derby and barely held 2nd there. (Which could be debated the Papa Clem hates the slop.)