Dunkirk -- 2 Questions

munster705 · #1 04-12-2009, 09:15 AM

If you watched the coverage, they interviewed Pletcher before the race went off. I don't think he knew how the track was going to come up beforehand. Speed horses fared really well that day all day long. What do you think he will go off at on Derby day?

Danzig · #2 04-12-2009, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by munster705

If you watched the coverage, they interviewed Pletcher before the race went off. I don't think he knew how the track was going to come up beforehand. Speed horses fared really well that day all day long. What do you think he will go off at on Derby day?

oh, i thought when you wrote 'Pletcher was pissed how the track came up that day before the race even went off' that he knew beforehand.

i don't think it matters. pletcher blaming that surface and the super is as meaningful as jones blaming his jock. and if dunkirk couldn't handle a sped up surface in fla, i doubt he handles one in ky.
as for what he goes off at, i really couldn't say. shorter odds than he should i'd imagine.

as for pletcher knowing his horses, that's a whole other topic of discussion.

Thunder Gulch · #3 04-12-2009, 09:22 AM

Dunkirk's chances of getting in are growing stronger everyday. I think he'll get in and I think he'll be the 3rd choice at 8-1. Remember he was overbet in the Florida Derby and everyone following the trail knows about him. A bunch of hunch players (there are a lot on Derby Day) will bet him down because the fortunate chain of events that got him in are pure destiny....I'm not using him on top.

Danzig · #4 04-12-2009, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Dunkirk's chances of getting in are growing stronger everyday. I think he'll get in and I think he'll be the 3rd choice at 8-1. Remember he was overbet in the Florida Derby and everyone following the trail knows about him. A bunch of hunch players (there are a lot on Derby Day) will bet him down because the fortunate chain of events that got him in are pure destiny....I'm not using him on top.

if a super, i might put him in the fourth spot. but pletcher once had five runners in the field, and didn't even hit the super spot....still time to figure all that out tho.

AeWingnut · #5 04-12-2009, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by munster705

If you watched the coverage, they interviewed Pletcher before the race went off. I don't think he knew how the track was going to come up beforehand. Speed horses fared really well that day all day long. What do you think he will go off at on Derby day?

then Pletcher should have made a late scratch if he felt that strongly.
He could have ran 2nd in the Wood.

I think you will get at least 10-1

btw

did you notice how spent DoneKirk was after the race?

Danzig · #6 04-12-2009, 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

then Pletcher should have made a late scratch if he felt that strongly.
He could have ran 2nd in the Wood.

I think you will get at least 10-1

btw

did you notice how spent DoneKirk was after the race?

if the horse couldn't hold his form and keep his weight on during a three race 'campaign', how will he ever be physically able to handle the derby and the training required beforehand?

SOREHOOF · #7 04-12-2009, 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

if the horse couldn't hold his form and keep his weight on during a three race 'campaign', how will he ever be physically able to handle the derby and the training required beforehand?

A friend of mine was telling me how skinny he looked that day. I didn't notice. I always thought he was a little on the small side.

Danzig · #8 04-12-2009, 09:33 AM

there's a reason (or several) why this horse has been so lightly raced. i don't think the derby should be on his schedule. a horse that has to be handled with kid gloves shouldn't be put in that scenario. too much, too soon for him i feel.

cowgirlintexas · #9 04-12-2009, 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

there's a reason (or several) why this horse has been so lightly raced. i don't think the derby should be on his schedule. a horse that has to be handled with kid gloves shouldn't be put in that scenario. too much, too soon for him i feel.

Course if he ends up winning the Derby it will become a total different story altogether.

SOREHOOF · #10 04-12-2009, 09:35 AM

I don't mind him in the Derby, but win or lose he should skip the Preakness.

Danzig · #11 04-12-2009, 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

I don't mind him in the Derby, but win or lose he should skip the Preakness.

why?

and if he wins, you really think they'd skip maryland? barring injury of course.

SOREHOOF · #12 04-12-2009, 09:38 AM

I think 99% of the time trainers are talking to the owners during post race interviews. Deflecting blame and keeping dreams alive.

stonegossard · #13 04-12-2009, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

I don't mind him in the Derby, but win or lose he should skip the Preakness.

I agree. If he wins The Kentucky Derby he should most definitely skip The Preakness.

johnny pinwheel · #14 04-12-2009, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

I don't mind him in the Derby, but win or lose he should skip the Preakness.

what horse that wins the derby will skip the preakness? only a hurt one. its triple crown glory and fever after a horse wins the derby. none of these people are going to pass that up unless the horse is hurt.

Hickory Hill Hoff · #15 04-12-2009, 10:17 AM

He's no Curlin......

CSC · #16 04-12-2009, 10:29 AM

If you don't like him, he will atleast add money to the pool. He's going to take some money that's for sure.

kevinm11 · #17 04-14-2009, 10:55 PM

I think he'll be the so-called "wise guy" horse this year, because he ran against the bias at GP and still ran 2nd, and it was only his 3rd lifetime start, and all the so-called experts are all over him. In my opinion he'll be overbet like in the 6/1 to 8/1 range. Without any foundation I can't touch him on the win end for a few reasons...I don't think the pace in this derby will be very fast, and of course I mentioned his lack of foundation. Also, everyone is comparing him to Big Brown. The field Big Brown beat is nothing close to this year's crop. Big Brown would not be a standout this year. I think he'll be in the Derby and will do no better than 3rd or 4th.

SOREHOOF · #18 04-12-2009, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

then Pletcher should have made a late scratch if he felt that strongly.
He could have ran 2nd in the Wood.

I think you will get at least 10-1

btw

did you notice how spent DoneKirk was after the race?

That is the first thing I noticed. I thought he was going to keel over. That was a huge move around the turn.

Danzig · #19 04-12-2009, 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

That is the first thing I noticed. I thought he was going to keel over. That was a huge move around the turn.

i just had a thought. pletcher might actually be hoping to be left out. then everyone could speculate that he woulda won. but he wouldn't have to actually run and prove them wrong!

SOREHOOF · #20 04-12-2009, 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by munster705

If you watched the coverage, they interviewed Pletcher before the race went off. I don't think he knew how the track was going to come up beforehand. Speed horses fared really well that day all day long. What do you think he will go off at on Derby day?

I'd say 9:1 but with the media hype that's coming maybe 6:1. Just guessing. I think the fave might be 5:1.