Dunkirk -- 2 Questions

Danzig · #1 04-12-2009, 08:06 AM

ok, i'll ask.

why does everyone care so much about whether this overrated horse gets in the derby? if he was so good, he'd have won the fla derby and no one would have to ask if he could get in. oh, wait...i forgot, it's because of how the track was that day that he lost.

munster705 · #2 04-12-2009, 08:09 AM

Dunkirk ran huge in the Floriday Derby in my opinion. Pletcher was pissed how the track came up that day before the race even went off and I'm sure he knows more about his horse than you, me or anyone else here. I think he is a young horse (race wise) and is just going to get better. He is my horse for the Derby if he runs. Just one man's opinion

Danzig · #3 04-12-2009, 08:11 AM

pletcher knew beforehand? well, then why didn't he scratch if he knew the track wasn't conducive to his horses running style? he knew the horse pretty much had to win to get in the field-or get damned lucky. he blasted the track because he lost, and he sure didn't want to get blamed-and it can't be the horse....

good luck with your derby horse.

munster705 · #4 04-12-2009, 08:15 AM

If you watched the coverage, they interviewed Pletcher before the race went off. I don't think he knew how the track was going to come up beforehand. Speed horses fared really well that day all day long. What do you think he will go off at on Derby day?

Danzig · #5 04-12-2009, 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by munster705

If you watched the coverage, they interviewed Pletcher before the race went off. I don't think he knew how the track was going to come up beforehand. Speed horses fared really well that day all day long. What do you think he will go off at on Derby day?

oh, i thought when you wrote 'Pletcher was pissed how the track came up that day before the race even went off' that he knew beforehand.

i don't think it matters. pletcher blaming that surface and the super is as meaningful as jones blaming his jock. and if dunkirk couldn't handle a sped up surface in fla, i doubt he handles one in ky.
as for what he goes off at, i really couldn't say. shorter odds than he should i'd imagine.

as for pletcher knowing his horses, that's a whole other topic of discussion.

Thunder Gulch · #6 04-12-2009, 08:22 AM

Dunkirk's chances of getting in are growing stronger everyday. I think he'll get in and I think he'll be the 3rd choice at 8-1. Remember he was overbet in the Florida Derby and everyone following the trail knows about him. A bunch of hunch players (there are a lot on Derby Day) will bet him down because the fortunate chain of events that got him in are pure destiny....I'm not using him on top.

Danzig · #7 04-12-2009, 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Dunkirk's chances of getting in are growing stronger everyday. I think he'll get in and I think he'll be the 3rd choice at 8-1. Remember he was overbet in the Florida Derby and everyone following the trail knows about him. A bunch of hunch players (there are a lot on Derby Day) will bet him down because the fortunate chain of events that got him in are pure destiny....I'm not using him on top.

if a super, i might put him in the fourth spot. but pletcher once had five runners in the field, and didn't even hit the super spot....still time to figure all that out tho.

AeWingnut · #8 04-12-2009, 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by munster705

If you watched the coverage, they interviewed Pletcher before the race went off. I don't think he knew how the track was going to come up beforehand. Speed horses fared really well that day all day long. What do you think he will go off at on Derby day?

then Pletcher should have made a late scratch if he felt that strongly.
He could have ran 2nd in the Wood.

I think you will get at least 10-1

btw

did you notice how spent DoneKirk was after the race?

Danzig · #9 04-12-2009, 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

then Pletcher should have made a late scratch if he felt that strongly.
He could have ran 2nd in the Wood.

I think you will get at least 10-1

btw

did you notice how spent DoneKirk was after the race?

if the horse couldn't hold his form and keep his weight on during a three race 'campaign', how will he ever be physically able to handle the derby and the training required beforehand?

SOREHOOF · #10 04-12-2009, 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

if the horse couldn't hold his form and keep his weight on during a three race 'campaign', how will he ever be physically able to handle the derby and the training required beforehand?

A friend of mine was telling me how skinny he looked that day. I didn't notice. I always thought he was a little on the small side.

SOREHOOF · #11 04-12-2009, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

then Pletcher should have made a late scratch if he felt that strongly.
He could have ran 2nd in the Wood.

I think you will get at least 10-1

btw

did you notice how spent DoneKirk was after the race?

That is the first thing I noticed. I thought he was going to keel over. That was a huge move around the turn.

Danzig · #12 04-12-2009, 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

That is the first thing I noticed. I thought he was going to keel over. That was a huge move around the turn.

i just had a thought. pletcher might actually be hoping to be left out. then everyone could speculate that he woulda won. but he wouldn't have to actually run and prove them wrong!

SOREHOOF · #13 04-12-2009, 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by munster705

If you watched the coverage, they interviewed Pletcher before the race went off. I don't think he knew how the track was going to come up beforehand. Speed horses fared really well that day all day long. What do you think he will go off at on Derby day?

I'd say 9:1 but with the media hype that's coming maybe 6:1. Just guessing. I think the fave might be 5:1.

Danzig · #14 04-12-2009, 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

I'd say 9:1 but with the media hype that's coming maybe 6:1. Just guessing. I think the fave might be 5:1.

good call on that. right now, i'm think IWR is the fave, followed by pioneer and quality road. i'd be surprised if dunkirk was more than fourth choice. so, he could be double digits. too many betting interests to have a lot of single digit odds.

Kasept · #15 04-12-2009, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by munster705

If you watched the coverage, they interviewed Pletcher before the race went off. I don't think he knew how the track was going to come up beforehand. Speed horses fared really well that day all day long. What do you think he will go off at on Derby day?

Then Pletcher should find a new line of work.

Dunkirk is going to absolutely get in the Derby.

Figure he'll be about 8-1.

PPerfectfan · #16 04-12-2009, 10:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

pletcher knew beforehand? well, then why didn't he scratch if he knew the track wasn't conducive to his horses running style? he knew the horse pretty much had to win to get in the field-or get damned lucky. he blasted the track because he lost, and he sure didn't want to get blamed-and it can't be the horse....

good luck with your derby horse.

Umm thats what I keep thinking but I look at it this way, he will be this years "wiseguy" horse and take tons of money and finish mid pack and inflate the odds of horses I like!!

mclem0822 · #17 04-12-2009, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by munster705

Dunkirk ran huge in the Floriday Derby in my opinion. Pletcher was pissed how the track came up that day before the race even went off and I'm sure he knows more about his horse than you, me or anyone else here. I think he is a young horse (race wise) and is just going to get better. He is my horse for the Derby if he runs. Just one man's opinion

He did run huge, he just couldn't sustain after making such a big run to get up to QR, but that does not IMO make him overrated.

SOREHOOF · #18 04-12-2009, 08:17 AM

I can't believe Gulfstream was STILL playing fast after 3 months of....playing fast!

johnny pinwheel · #19 04-12-2009, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

I can't believe Gulfstream was STILL playing fast after 3 months of....playing fast!

what are you saying? that tracks played fast for as long as i've been betting it. which is about 20 years now. wow, pletcher must of been stunned a couple weeks ago....lol

The Indomitable DrugS · #20 04-12-2009, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'm not chomping at the bit to bet a horse making his 4th start in the Derby, and a smallish horse at that.

Is he smallish?

I keep hearing things about his appearance that don't sound consistant with the fact that he was the nations highest priced yearling sold at public auction last year.