Thompson SERIOUSLY BLEW IT

[the_fat_man]

When your horse, that had the lead and was passed, runs its projeced last quarter a FULL SECOND faster than its previous one, in other words, has enough to ACCELERATE to the wire, it follows that you've WAITED TOO LONG to shake it up.

This is almost exactly what happened to Hard Spun in the Derby.

[Danzig]

i think rick porter blew it by changing jocks. wouldn't be the first time.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

When your horse, that had the lead and was passed, runs its last 1/8th in what projects to be a FULL SECOND faster than its previous quarter, in other words, has enough to ACCELERATE to the wire, it follows that you've WAITED TOO LONG to shake it up.

This is almost exactly what happened to Hard Spun in the Derby.

Oaklawn is notorious for producing odd fractions at a mile and an eighth. The horse just doesn't know how to 'turn off' and relax. He has a lot of talent but if he's ever going to stretch out he's got to stop running off early in longer races. The horses that ran with him early finished last and second last...

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by philcski

Oaklawn is notorious for producing odd fractions at a mile and an eighth. The horse just doesn't know how to 'turn off' and relax. He has a lot of talent but if he's ever going to stretch out he's got to stop running off early in longer races. The horses that ran with him early finished last and second last...

i think old fashioned will do ok at shorter, but i don't think he's a mile and a quarter horse. someone said go to the met mile, i agree!

[King Glorious]

My respect for Old Fashioned ability went up 100% after today. He's a game horse with a lot of talent. That said, I don't think they should go to the Derby. No point. The Mile Mile is crying out for him and he'd have a real shot at that race. Also, as Philski mentioned, that downhill finish at Oaklawn often produces weird finishing times.

[Danzig]

i thought it was uphill?? lol hell, i've seen it said both ways, so who knows?

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i thought it was uphill?? lol hell, i've seen it said both ways, so who knows?

It is uphill late on the far turn and early stretch.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i thought it was uphill?? lol hell, i've seen it said both ways, so who knows?

For the last time, it's downhill (in deep stretch at least).

And this is shocking?

The guy was mediocre at Ellis Park year in and year out. Of course he's going to nut up in a big money race.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

When your horse, that had the lead and was passed, runs its projeced last quarter a FULL SECOND faster than its previous one, in other words, has enough to ACCELERATE to the wire, it follows that you've WAITED TOO LONG to shake it up.

This is almost exactly what happened to Hard Spun in the Derby.

This is an interesting take.

The contrary opinion would be that OF finished well because of the slower penultimate quarter.

I think he could have asked earlier and he would have had the added benefit of not having Papa Clem "weighing down on him" from the outside the length of the stretch. Take it a step further and he could have come off the rail a little bit as well...

interesting that Papa Clem gets up to even terms while Thompson (red cap) is peeking behind him

[Danzig]

i can't believe old fashioned got bet down like that.

[Bobby Fischer]

It was a weak field on paper

[Travis Stone]

In terms of Beyer's it was basically a two horse race, with Win Willy's big number under consideration as well.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

In terms of Beyer's it was basically a two horse race, with Win Willy's big number under consideration as wel.

I underestimated PC after he was beaten so easily on a moderate-paced lead in the slop. Maybe he hates the slop? Maybe FF is that much better ?

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i can't believe old fashioned got bet down like that.

why? i knew he would be really short again. he lost because of the jockey, remember? so they put a new jockey on him and he lost again. what? the jockey blew it again. what a joke, the horse ain't that good, get over it ! i wish he didn't get hurt because suckers would of bet him again. maybe he would of got a third jock and the results would of been same.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

why? i knew he would be really short again. he lost because of the jockey, remember? so they put a new jockey on him and he lost again. what? the jockey blew it again. what a joke, the horse ain't that good, get over it ! i wish he didn't get hurt because suckers would of bet him again. maybe he would of got a third jock and the results would of been same.

i surely hope you're not telling me to get over it. i never thought of this guy as derby material, and was shocked he was at even-but i guess there's no accounting for taste with some folks and their money.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i surely hope you're not telling me to get over it. i never thought of this guy as derby material, and was shocked he was at even-but i guess there's no accounting for taste with some folks and their money.

my money is fine, i stopped betting 4-5 shots years ago, especially when they can't get the distance. old fashioned is a good horse, he's no 4-5 shot at a distance. no matter who rides. i bet to win, taste has nothing to do with it. i was agreeing with you, but the thread is ridiculous. thompson blew it? how about the horse won't last over a mile. thats way more accurate!

[KirisClown]

Old Fashioned won't be racing anywhere for a while..

http://www.drf.com/news/article/102938.html

[mclem0822]

Originally Posted by KirisClown

Old Fashioned won't be racing anywhere for a while..

http://www.drf.com/news/article/102938.html

I'm sorry for Larry Jones, I'm glad it isn't life threatening.

[tbonds]

What the story with Old Fashion?