Interesting Developments

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

One at a time.....

Maybe Papa Clem hated the mud....and more it says that the Arkansas Derby field sucked ( Old Fashioned is OK but severly distance challenged ).

General Quarters had a lousy trip in the Tampa Bay Derby, beat crows today, and probably improved on the fake turf.

Pioneer of the Nile is a turf/synthetic horse who barely beat dirt horses on a surface they didn't particularly care for....but will drown him on their preferred surface ( and his least favorite surface ) in a few weeks.

I agree that judging Papa Clem based on an off track race where he cut the pace is probably not the way to go. And, there are just so many perfect trips in a given year for Friesen Fire. So, anyone wanting him in the Derby will be in for a very rude awakening.

But while I want to believe that Old Fashioned is distanced challenged, as this is constantly being put out there, I'm not sure that I saw that today. What I did see is a jock STYLING while seriously NAPPING on a horse with an easy lead, that got passed and continued on very gamely on the inside to the wire. In fact, OF appeared to be making some of the ground back. Distance challenged horses typically give it up when they're passed. A more attentive ride by the jock is all it would've taken today.

Not sure that I can reconcile General Quarters' performance today with his getting a 'lousy' trip last out. He didn't get the best of trips but it certainly wasn't a very bad one. He ran much better today -- poly or otherwise.

As for POTN, he never struck me as anything more than a workmanlike performer. He tries hard and beats what they put him in against. I understand that he's presently the POLY HATERS whipping boy but all the horse can do it run where they put him. If he fails on the dirt, SO ****IN WHAT!!!! He goes back to the POLY and TURF and carves out a decent career.

[Hoist Her Flag]

Why does the Pioneer of Nothing have to win the Derby. Good horses lose races. Colonel John won the Travers. The horses is bred to run all day long. He has been working bullets since January 1st along with IWR. Papa Clem has worked bullets all spring. Next Week when Square Eddie runs in the Top 3 another Synthetic horse who has been in training all spring.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

Why does the Pioneer of Nothing have to win the Derby. Good horses lose races. Colonel John won the Travers. The horses is bred to run all day long. He has been working bullets since January 1st along with IWR. Papa Clem has worked bullets all spring. Next Week when Square Eddie runs in the Top 3 another Synthetic horse who has been in training all spring.

he doesn't have to win-but isn't this thread about horses going for the derby? some like him for it, some don't. after the derby, everyone will move on.

to the preakness.

i can't wait to see who this years triple crown winner is going to be!

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

Why does the Pioneer of Nothing have to win the Derby. Good horses lose races. Colonel John won the Travers. The horses is bred to run all day long. He has been working bullets since January 1st along with IWR. Papa Clem has worked bullets all spring. Next Week when Square Eddie runs in the Top 3 another Synthetic horse who has been in training all spring.

I'm confused. You say that the west coast horses are superior this year, but then reneg and then say that the horse doesn't have to win the derby. Aren't we talking about the derby? Then what's your point? Serious question: is English your first language?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm confused. You say that the west coast horses are superior this year, but then reneg and and then say that the horse doesn't have to win the derby. Aren't we talking about the derby? Then what's your point? Serious question: is English your first language?

I'm beginning to think PG had an internet sex change.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Terrain is a complete mediocrity who can't even make a dent in a race that fell in his lap on his preferred surface.

The Ky. Derby always seems to allow for Terrain-types to hit the board quite often... Denis of Cork, Imawildandcrazyguy, Steppenwolfer... there always seems to be one.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Maybe Papa Clem hated the mud....and more it says that the Arkansas Derby field sucked ( Old Fashioned is OK but severly distance challenged ).

To PC's credit he did show a new dimension today as he's mainly been a pace/pace presser type. I didn't bet him because I thought he would do what OF did and weaken late instead he screwed me a different way.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I agree that judging Papa Clem based on an off track race where he cut the pace is probably not the way to go. And, there are just so many perfect trips in a given year for Friesen Fire. So, anyone wanting him in the Derby will be in for a very rude awakening.

But while I want to believe that Old Fashioned is distanced challenged, as this is constantly being put out there, I'm not sure that I saw that today. What I did see is a jock STYLING while seriously NAPPING on a horse with an easy lead, that got passed and continued on very gamely on the inside to the wire. In fact, OF appeared to be making some of the ground back. Distance challenged horses typically give it up when they're passed. A more attentive ride by the jock is all it would've taken today.

Not sure that I can reconcile General Quarters' performance today with his getting a 'lousy' trip last out. He didn't get the best of trips but it certainly wasn't a very bad one. He ran much better today -- poly or otherwise.

As for POTN, he never struck me as anything more than a workmanlike performer. He tries hard and beats what they put him in against. I understand that he's presently the POLY HATERS whipping boy but all the horse can do it run where they put him. If he fails on the dirt, SO ****IN WHAT!!!! He goes back to the POLY and TURF and carves out a decent career.

nothing wrong with that whatsoever. he'll be the new lava man.
as for hating poly, i think everyone is framing their thoughts on him regarding ky, not anything else. i don't think anyone would pick against him in a race on his favored surface.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Danzig

nothing wrong with that whatsoever. he'll be the new lava man.
as for hating poly, i think everyone is framing their thoughts on him regarding ky, not anything else. i don't think anyone would pick against him in a race on his favored surface.

This getting really rank mid-race stuff is going to catch-up to him quick.

[Hoist Her Flag]

Well Said last year was better on Derby Day than everybody else.

But If Pioneer loses by 1 length. Will everyone go "he hated" the dirt?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

Well Said last year was better on Derby Day than everybody else.

But If Pioneer loses by 1 length. Will everyone go "he hated" the dirt?

if you have a horse do nothing but win on one surface, and then loses on another-that would be the easiest reason why, wouldn't it?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

As for POTN, he never struck me as anything more than a workmanlike performer. He tries hard and beats what they put him in against. I understand that he's presently the POLY HATERS whipping boy but all the horse can do it run where they put him. If he fails on the dirt, SO ****IN WHAT!!!! He goes back to the POLY and TURF and carves out a decent career.

You can say that about everything, but if you are betting the Derby, throwing out one of the favorites, and being right, gives you a chance to make some money. Isn't that both what we are talking about here and what playing the game is all about?

[Hoist Her Flag]

that is what the game is all about. 20 days away.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

that is what the game is all about. 20 days away.

The Derby is hardly what the game is all about. Maybe on the internet....but not at the windows where it really matters.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The Derby is hardly what the game is all about. Maybe on the internet....but not at the windows where it really matters.

Spoken like a true bettor

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You can say that about everything, but if you are betting the Derby, throwing out one of the favorites, and being right, gives you a chance to make some money. Isn't that both what we are talking about here and what playing the game is all about?

No doubt. But what exactly do we base tossing POLY horses on? This has not really been address here (or anywhere).

Wouldn't I be in a position to make a better decision concerning those horses that have already run on dirt?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

No doubt. But what exactly do we base tossing POLY horses on? This has not really been address here (or anywhere).

Wouldn't I be in a position to make a better decision concerning those horses that have already run on dirt?

It would, of course, be nice to be able to always make decisions on what we have seen, but that isn't always the case, and in this year's Derby, if you are betting, you have to make a decision on Pioneer of the Nile, as he is one of the favorites. Here's what we have.....a horse that ran fairly well in his debut on the turf, and then ran slowly in a bunch of synthetic turf races, while earning a reputation based on the names of the races he ran in and not on his actual on track performances. Could he improve on the dirt? Of course, but he likely won't ( as few horses are proficient on all surfaces ), and at the odds he will be, based on how he has performed, he is a good horse to bet against.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

and at the odds he will be, based on how he has performed, he is a good horse to bet against.

exactly


It's possible that he will be as good as his odds on dirt, but not very probable.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It would, of course, be nice to be able to always make decisions on what we have seen, but that isn't always the case, and in this year's Derby, if you are betting, you have to make a decision on Pioneer of the Nile, as he is one of the favorites. Here's what we have.....a horse that ran fairly well in his debut on the turf, and then ran slowly in a bunch of synthetic turf races, while earning a reputation based on the names of the races he ran in and not on his actual on track performances. Could he improve on the dirt? Of course, but he likely won't ( as few horses are proficient on all surfaces ), and at the odds he will be, based on how he has performed, he is a good horse to bet against.

Let's be more precise. I don't indulge in speed figures but from what I've read here POLY races grade out slower. I don't know if CJ (or someone else) has a POLY to DIRT conversion worked out. If this is the case, and POTN's races are 'historically' SLOWER then my point is not a makeable one. But, 'slower in relation to what'? is my question otherwise. All I know is that this horse has finished ahead of all the horses its faced in CALI. Some of them have done nicely elsewhere.

Tell you this much, and I am NOT a FAN of this horse. I'd be more comfortable tossing Quality Road and Friesan Fire (and I will). I know they can't win without perfect trips. I don't know what this horse can do on the dirt, however.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let's be more precise. I don't indulge in speed figures but from what I've read here POLY races grade out slower. I don't know if CJ (or someone else) has a POLY to DIRT conversion worked out. If this is the case, and POTN's races are 'historically' SLOWER then my point is not a makeable one. But, 'slower' in relation to what is my question otherwise? All I know is that this horse has finished ahead of all the horses its faced in CALI. Some of them have done nicely elsewhere.

Tell you this much, and I am NOT a FAN of this horse. I'd be more comfortable tossing Quality Road and Friesan Fire (and I will). I know they can't win without perfect trips. I don't know what this horse can do on the dirt, however.

we're all in the same boat on that score.

[Indian Charlie]

Oxtails are exotic?

Have people never been to anything better than Arby's?