Interesting Developments

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The Derby Trail is fun because you can over-analyze stuff and have an excuse for doing so. After today's results, there are some fairly interesting considerations:

* Papa Clem, who had a pretty good trip in the La. Derby, was man-handled by Friesan Fire. Papa Clem comes back to win today, what does that say about Friesan Fire?

* General Quarters beat Musket Man, Musket Man comes back to win the Illinois Derby, while General Quarters beats synthetic horses on their own turf. Is the West Florida contingent this good?

* Papa Clem is an okay horse on both surfaces, yet he lost to Pioneerof The Nile. Love POTN or hate him, you have to have a few ounces of respect for him.

* Terrain will likely finish 3rd or 4th in the Kentucky Derby, because it's what he does.

* Who is the pace in the Kentucky Derby now?

One at a time.....

Maybe Papa Clem hated the mud....and more it says that the Arkansas Derby field sucked ( Old Fashioned is OK but severly distance challenged ).

General Quarters had a lousy trip in the Tampa Bay Derby, beat crows today, and probably improved on the fake turf.

Pioneer of the Nile is a turf/synthetic horse who barely beat dirt horses on a surface they didn't particularly care for....but will drown him on their preferred surface ( and his least favorite surface ) in a few weeks.

Terrain is a complete mediocrity who can't even make a dent in a race that fell in his lap on his preferred surface.

I supposed Old Fashioned is the main speed, unless his connections are smart enough to skip the Derby and run in the Met Mile, and that will have little affect on the race. But, without seeing all the pps this is a tougher one to answer.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Pioneer of the Nile is a turf/synthetic horse who barely beat dirt horses on a surface they didn't particularly care for....but will drown him on their preferred surface ( and his least favorite surface ) in a few weeks.

What are you basing this on? The fact that he's never run on dirt, or the fact that he's bred to like dirt?

[Hoist Her Flag]

Im still waiting to find that synthetic horse that hates dirt. It's the other way around. The West Coast horses are just better this year. And the poly is better conditioning. Well Armed by 14 enough said.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

Im still waiting to find that synthetic horse that hates dirt. It's the other way around. The West Coast horses are just better this year. And the poly is better conditioning. Well Armed by 14 enough said.

hahahahahahahahahaha

[Danzig]

seems a couple horses from out west last year didn't do so well on poly, ran ok on dirt, but still didn't make much of a dent in kentucky. gayego immediately leaps to mind. seems like some of the horses pyro beat up on last year in LA had success elsewhere. pyro of course fell on his face in ky, and hasn't done much since then to redeem himself-so that should rule out giving much weight to friesan fire. and yes, i know it's a new year. i also know he hasn't run past 1 1/16th, and is taking a seven week breather before the derby. i'm not so sure both those moves can be overcome, along with a 20 horse field.

as for what a horse is bred for-all you can really say for sure is that they're bred to run. some of course do it faster than others. other than that, until they try a surface, it's all conjecture. i wouldn't bet one red cent at the derby on pioneerofthenile fwiw. the 10f distance and large field are the only two new things these horses should face that day.



and as for how well armed finished in dubai, that's just hilarious. he's not much, and didn't face much. the fact he's the top rated dirt horse in the world is a riot.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Danzig

seems a couple horses from out west last year didn't do so well on poly, ran ok on dirt, but still didn't make much of a dent in kentucky. gayego immediately leaps to mind. seems like some of the horses pyro beat up on last year in LA had success elsewhere. pyro of course fell on his face in ky, and hasn't done much since then to redeem himself-so that should rule out giving much weight to friesan fire. and yes, i know it's a new year. i also know he hasn't run past 1 1/16th, and is taking a seven week breather before the derby. i'm not so sure both those moves can be overcome, along with a 20 horse field.

I'm not sure using any comparison to last year's crop is wise as they were extremely weak overall.

The dirt/synth debate could go on all night and never get anywhere. It's extremely horse specific in my opinion. Lumping all synth winners into turfers is dangerous, and visa-versa.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm not sure using any comparison to last year's crop is wise as they were extremely weak overall.

The dirt/synth debate could go on all night and never get anywhere. It's extremely horse specific in my opinion. Lumping all synth winners into turfers is dangerous, and visa-versa.

my only real comparison to last year is to say that a horse can look strong in the preps, only to bomb in may-and perhaps ever after (such as in pyros case).

as for the other, you have to take each horse on its own. some like one surface, some like multiple surfaces obviously. i know wait a while was good on turf, but hated synthetics-so of course you can't automatically assume anything. but it's my thought that only the best horses are versatile and can/will handle multiple surfaces and emerge victorious.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

hahahahahahahahahaha

well said.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

Im still waiting to find that synthetic horse that hates dirt. It's the other way around. The West Coast horses are just better this year. And the poly is better conditioning. Well Armed by 14 enough said.

While I prefer Hockey's response....I will give you a few off the top of my head.....Adriano, Monba and Cowboy Cal.

Better conditioning? See Hockey's previous response.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

While I prefer Hockey's response....I will give you a few off the top of my head.....Adriano, Monba and Cowboy Cal.

Better conditioning? See Hockey's previous response.

How about adding Go Between to that list as well.
Student Council, too?

[lemoncrush]

Papa Clem's victory recalled visions of Gayego last year in an awful field.
And the Bluegrass is quickly becoming a joke. General Quarters will be no more of a factor on Derby day and beyond than the last two winners of that race (Monba and Dominican).

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by justindew

What are you basing this on? The fact that he's never run on dirt, or the fact that he's bred to like dirt?

My sig. courtesy of BTW, explains it all.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

My sig. courtesy of BTW, explains it all.

I couldn't have said it better myself.


Wait a minute......

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I couldn't have said it better myself.


Wait a minute......

The true shocker of the day... the buffet in the Equestris Room was outstanding today.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

The true shocker of the day... the buffet in the Equestris Room was outstanding today.

But not nearly as good as the Oxtail I had from the West Indian Food stand.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

But not nearly as good as the Oxtail I had from the West Indian Food stand.

You're a brave man.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

But not nearly as good as the Oxtail I had from the West Indian Food stand.

Love the beef patties there.

Oxtail... you're more exotic than I.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

One at a time.....

Maybe Papa Clem hated the mud....and more it says that the Arkansas Derby field sucked ( Old Fashioned is OK but severly distance challenged ).

General Quarters had a lousy trip in the Tampa Bay Derby, beat crows today, and probably improved on the fake turf.

Pioneer of the Nile is a turf/synthetic horse who barely beat dirt horses on a surface they didn't particularly care for....but will drown him on their preferred surface ( and his least favorite surface ) in a few weeks.

I agree that judging Papa Clem based on an off track race where he cut the pace is probably not the way to go. And, there are just so many perfect trips in a given year for Friesen Fire. So, anyone wanting him in the Derby will be in for a very rude awakening.

But while I want to believe that Old Fashioned is distanced challenged, as this is constantly being put out there, I'm not sure that I saw that today. What I did see is a jock STYLING while seriously NAPPING on a horse with an easy lead, that got passed and continued on very gamely on the inside to the wire. In fact, OF appeared to be making some of the ground back. Distance challenged horses typically give it up when they're passed. A more attentive ride by the jock is all it would've taken today.

Not sure that I can reconcile General Quarters' performance today with his getting a 'lousy' trip last out. He didn't get the best of trips but it certainly wasn't a very bad one. He ran much better today -- poly or otherwise.

As for POTN, he never struck me as anything more than a workmanlike performer. He tries hard and beats what they put him in against. I understand that he's presently the POLY HATERS whipping boy but all the horse can do it run where they put him. If he fails on the dirt, SO ****IN WHAT!!!! He goes back to the POLY and TURF and carves out a decent career.

[Hoist Her Flag]

Why does the Pioneer of Nothing have to win the Derby. Good horses lose races. Colonel John won the Travers. The horses is bred to run all day long. He has been working bullets since January 1st along with IWR. Papa Clem has worked bullets all spring. Next Week when Square Eddie runs in the Top 3 another Synthetic horse who has been in training all spring.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

Why does the Pioneer of Nothing have to win the Derby. Good horses lose races. Colonel John won the Travers. The horses is bred to run all day long. He has been working bullets since January 1st along with IWR. Papa Clem has worked bullets all spring. Next Week when Square Eddie runs in the Top 3 another Synthetic horse who has been in training all spring.

he doesn't have to win-but isn't this thread about horses going for the derby? some like him for it, some don't. after the derby, everyone will move on.

to the preakness.

i can't wait to see who this years triple crown winner is going to be!