Good capping vs Good betting

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I dont let odds influence what I bet.

That is a huge mistake, IMO. Identifying the horse most likely to win the race is not enough.

I never make a bet unless I think the odds justify the bet. That does not mean I would never bet chalk. I would (and have!) bet a 3-5 shot if I thought it had a 75% chance to win the race. I'll also bet a 60-1 shot if I think the odds should be 40-1.

Unless you are the beneificiary of a truckload of inside info, you need to have some idea what fair odds are for a horse before you bet it.

--Dunbar

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

That is a huge mistake, IMO. Identifying the horse most likely to win the race is not enough.

I never make a bet unless I think the odds justify the bet. That does not mean I would never bet chalk. I would (and have!) bet a 3-5 shot if I thought it had a 75% chance to win the race. I'll also bet a 60-1 shot if I think the odds should be 40-1.

Unless you are the beneificiary of a truckload of inside info, you need to have some idea what fair odds are for a horse before you bet it.

--Dunbar

Dunbar, that's pretty much how I bet but, to me, there's one more important factor.

If I think a horse is 4-1 fair odds to win, I'm willing to bet him at 5-1 for $1x. But if the 4-1 fair odds horse goes off at 7-1, I will bet more, say $1.25x. And if he goes off at 10-1, then I max out at $1.50x.

To me, that's the key to success. Having MORE action going when actual/fair is higher.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Dunbar, that's pretty much how I bet but, to me, there's one more important factor.

If I think a horse is 4-1 fair odds to win, I'm willing to bet him at 5-1 for $1x. But if the 4-1 fair odds horse goes off at 7-1, I will bet more, say $1.25x. And if he goes off at 10-1, then I max out at $1.50x.

To me, that's the key to success. Having MORE action going when actual/fair is higher.

It makes sense to do what you are doing, STS. I like the fact that you are only making a 50% bigger bet even when you see a huge discrepancy from your "fair odds". If your fair odds were 100% accurate, a much bigger increase would be justified. Problem is, our "fair odds" are estimates, and it's wise to be conservative in using them.

I size my bet to win a certain amount. Say it's $Z. So, I would bet $Z/2 on a horse that's 2-1 (but only if I think the horse should be 8-5 or less). I'll bet $Z/10 on a 10-1 shot (assuming I think it should be, say, 7-1). But I will shade those bets the same way you do--betting a little more when the discrepancy from my "fair" line is bigger.

The choice of $Z itself is a reflection of my bankroll, my estimated overall edge in capping horses, and my confidence in my ability to estimate that edge.

--Dunbar

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It makes sense to do what you are doing, STS. I like the fact that you are only making a 50% bigger bet even when you see a huge discrepancy from your "fair odds". If your fair odds were 100% accurate, a much bigger increase would be justified. Problem is, our "fair odds" are estimates, and it's wise to be conservative in using them.

I size my bet to win a certain amount. Say it's $Z. So, I would bet $Z/2 on a horse that's 2-1 (but only if I think the horse should be 8-5 or less). I'll bet $Z/10 on a 10-1 shot (assuming I think it should be, say, 7-1). But I will shade those bets the same way you do--betting a little more when the discrepancy from my "fair" line is bigger.

The choice of $Z itself is a reflection of my bankroll, my estimated overall edge in capping horses, and my confidence in my ability to estimate that edge.

--Dunbar

A big puzzler thiyesterday when the entry Scat Cat an CQ hovered anywhere from 9/5 to 6/5 untill shortly before post when it went off odds on. The 9/5 was a gift it appeared. I actually thought they would go off closer to 2/5.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by jpops757

A big puzzler thiyesterday when the entry Scat Cat an CQ hovered anywhere from 9/5 to 6/5 untill shortly before post when it went off odds on. The 9/5 was a gift it appeared. I actually thought they would go off closer to 2/5.

This is definitely a problem sometimes, jpops. I try to not cut it too close on beating what I consider "fair odds". I would not take 6-1 on a horse I pegged at 5-1, for example. It would have to be at least 7-1 with 1-2 minutes to post.

Still, I've had times when the final odds dipped below what I considered fair, and I regretted the bet.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by Dunbar

That is a huge mistake, IMO. Identifying the horse most likely to win the race is not enough.

I never make a bet unless I think the odds justify the bet. That does not mean I would never bet chalk. I would (and have!) bet a 3-5 shot if I thought it had a 75% chance to win the race. I'll also bet a 60-1 shot if I think the odds should be 40-1.

Unless you are the beneificiary of a truckload of inside info, you need to have some idea what fair odds are for a horse before you bet it.

--Dunbar

What I meant is that if I like a horse and the public has that horse at 10-1 I am not going to get off of it (unless it is a first time starter). On the flipside, if a horse i love is 3-5 then I will still bet it. I rarely will increase my bet unless it is a hose I really really love. Like Chace City. Since I bet so much, I dont see a reason to increase my wager. I may move a the show wager to the win wager giving me $200 to win and $100 to place.