Old Fashion or Friesan Fire, who's the player

Bobby Fischer · #1 04-07-2009, 08:37 AM

Friesan Fire can run all today. Either FF will win the Derby or someone more talented will run a bigger race. He should be right there.

Old Fashioned is a question mark. At best he is a solid high-cruiser who can settle near the front and stick around late... At worst he is an unrateable non-contender who is subject to other's early pace.

Bobby Fischer · #2 04-07-2009, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I think it's a bit premature to declare he can run all day, considering he hasn't even ran 9 furlongs yet. But, isn't it possible Friesan Fire just loves Fairgrounds? He was a mediocre horse before he ran there and now he's one of the favorites for the Derby after a lopsided sloppy track win and beating up on allowance horses in the other 2? I suppose we'll find out a bit more after Papa Clem runs this weekend, but I will be very surprised if Friesan Fire is a factor in the Derby.

FF literally has the most distance in his pedigree of just about any horse on anyone's top-20 lists, has been strong in the stretch, and he has a solid trainer.

Anyone can catch a bad trip, or get hurt, or have some physical defect that hasn't been exposed at 8.5 furlongs... You are never sure until after the fact, but we have 3 weeks.

brianwspencer · #3 04-07-2009, 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I think it's a bit premature to declare he can run all day, considering he hasn't even ran 9 furlongs yet. But, isn't it possible Friesan Fire just loves Fairgrounds? He was a mediocre horse before he ran there and now he's one of the favorites for the Derby after a lopsided sloppy track win and beating up on allowance horses in the other 2? I suppose we'll find out a bit more after Papa Clem runs this weekend, but I will be very surprised if Friesan Fire is a factor in the Derby.

I don't totally disagree that we may not know as much as we think we do about Friesan Fire, but really, aren't all the leading contenders more or less coming into this after "beating up on allowance horses?"

I'm not exactly jumping out of my seat thinking about the fields IWR has beaten in his last two.

I'm more impressed with the way both of them have been doing it than against whom they've done it. Well, and I hate Pioneerofthenile, so I have to start looking somewhere...

Gate Dancer · #4 04-07-2009, 10:25 AM

Friesan Fire = Pyro

Nuff said...........

Sightseek · #5 04-07-2009, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

Friesen Fire = Pyro

Nuff said...........

Besides both winning races at Fair Grounds, how are the two similiar?

Gate Dancer · #6 04-07-2009, 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Besides both winning races at Fair Grounds, how are the two similiar?

Basically since they both dominated at FG with average times against average fields. Pyro was exposed in the Blue Grass (surface switch) and FF will be exposed in the Derby. He just isn't fast enough. Both have similar numbers breeding wise with no deep stamina influences in the pedigrees. FF even more challenged on the female side. Any closing kick FF has will be nullified by the pace of the Derby and the extra 3/16's he will have run. I hope he takes plenty of money............he won't be getting mine.

OF way before FF..............

johnny pinwheel · #7 04-07-2009, 11:09 AM

just from what i've seen. FF has been running better than OF ,niether might not be good enough. plus your not supposed lose at 3-5 to a 50-1 shot perfect set up or not(unless willy turns out to be really good). old fashioned is supposed to win for fun instead he used himself up and came up empty. i hope he runs good staurday, because just from what i've seen i don't think he'll get 1 and 1/4. as of now i would toss old fashion before FF.

Bobby Fischer · #8 04-07-2009, 11:24 AM

Pyro = Theregoesjojo

Kasept · #9 04-07-2009, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

Pyro was exposed in the Blue Grass (surface switch) and FF will be exposed in the Derby. He just isn't fast enough.

Pyro was 'exposed' by not winning on PolyTrack? What did that expose him as exactly other than a horse that was better running on authentic main track dirt surfaces?

And the Derby is a singularly bizarre event where even if Friesan Fire runs a lifetime best he could be 6th for any number of reasons or legitimate Derby excuses. Ultimately, performance in the Derby is meaningless to everyone but the winner.

I'm not crazy about Friesan Fire's chances to do anything in the Derby, but sweeping the Fair Grounds sophomore stakes is a nice accomplishment and brandishes the colt as one of the very solid and high quality members of this class of 3 year olds.

Bobby Fischer · #10 04-07-2009, 11:35 AM

pyro was a miler ,
friesan fire has so much conduit mare stamina compared to the rest of these horses...

Gate Dancer · #11 04-07-2009, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Pyro was 'exposed' by not winning on PolyTrack? What did that expose him as exactly other than a horse that was better running on authentic main track dirt surfaces?

And the Derby is a singularly bizarre event where even if Friesan Fire runs a lifetime best he could be 6th for any number of reasons or legitimate Derby excuses. Ultimately, performance in the Derby is meaningless to everyone but the winner.

I'm not crazy about Friesan Fire's chances to do anything in the Derby, but sweeping the Fair Grounds sophomore stakes is a nice accomplishment and brandishes the colt as one of the very solid and high quality members of this class of 3 year olds.

In my opinion Pyro was exposed by facing a better quality field and not running worth a darn. I noted the surface switch because that may have also been the cause of the poor performance. Apparently, it was a precursor of things to come as evidenced by his 8th place finish in the Derby.

There is no question that the 'sweep' by FF is notable accomplishment. I'm just convinced that his Derby performance will be more like Pyro's than one of the top 3-4 more likely winners.

Pedigree Ann · #12 04-07-2009, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Besides both winning races at Fair Grounds, how are the two similiar?

Pyro was bred to be a miler, miler sire and miler damside, and he was a nice miler. Came back and won a G3 8.5f race at CD after the Derby.

Friesan Fire at least has a sire who could stay. Damside is miler types for a couple of generations, stayers farther back.

Shortening the La Derby to 8.5f (done in 1988) made it a less useful prep; all the better winners, including one Ky Derby winner, since shortening required good 9f+ races thereafter to contend. The new fashion of bringing in horses 'fresh' (meaning off of a layoff) may work if the horse has a class advantage or a sport-horse trainer, but one has to question whether it is the best strategy for FF. One would have to think that longer race in the interim, even if he lost, would set him up better for the ultimate test.

johnny pinwheel · #13 04-07-2009, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

For the most part yes. You're right. It just seems to me of the leading contenders Friesan Fire has the most question marks. Maybe he gets lost in the wagering and my point is moot, but I'm not sure.

i kind of disagree, he has less question marks than his stablemate who got rundown by a 50-1 shot. thats the question that was asked. if old fashioned fires big saturday my point is mute.

Sightseek · #14 04-07-2009, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

i kind of disagree, he has less question marks than his stablemate who got rundown by a 50-1 shot. thats the question that was asked. if old fashioned fires big saturday my point is mute.

A 50-1 shot that got the perfect set-up.