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  #1  
Old 04-03-2009, 12:14 PM
tjfla tjfla is offline
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Musket Man looks good at 30-1 especially if he runs big in Illinois!!!!
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  #2  
Old 04-03-2009, 12:35 PM
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philcski philcski is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tjfla
Musket Man looks good at 30-1 especially if he runs big in Illinois!!!!
Musket Man has a 0% chance of going a mile and a quarter.
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  #3  
Old 04-03-2009, 04:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
Musket Man has a 0% chance of going a mile and a quarter.
Couldn't you have written 0.001% chance, just to keep me happy? ;>)

--Dunbar
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  #4  
Old 04-03-2009, 04:09 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
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Musket Man will get 10 furlongs.....















































It might just take 2:10

NT
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  #5  
Old 04-03-2009, 04:24 PM
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If he gets in I'm taking a stab with Terrain. Put a few bob on him!
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  #6  
Old 04-03-2009, 11:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheSpyder
If he gets in I'm taking a stab with Terrain. Put a few bob on him!

i kinda like him, too... I'll be doing a Imperial Council / Terrain / Theregoesjojo exacta box this weekend along with win bets on each of these (unless Imperial Council wins and drops below 10-1).

Good luck Spyder!!
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  #7  
Old 04-04-2009, 05:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DerbyCat
i kinda like him, too... I'll be doing a Imperial Council / Terrain / Theregoesjojo exacta box this weekend along with win bets on each of these (unless Imperial Council wins and drops below 10-1).
Doesn't Theregoesjojo have graded earnings problems?

--Dunbar
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  #8  
Old 04-04-2009, 10:43 PM
gales0678 gales0678 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
Musket Man has a 0% chance of going a mile and a quarter.
maybe be so , but all he does is win
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  #9  
Old 04-05-2009, 10:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gales0678
maybe be so , but all he does is win
I'm guessing even philcski would put down $1 if he could get 1000-1 on Musket Man.

I'd settle for 50-1, because I think Musket Man has a chance far above 0% to win. I wish I had some of the 80-1 that was available offshore before yesterday's race.

--Dunbar
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  #10  
Old 04-05-2009, 01:21 PM
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Are Regal Ransom and Desert Party both still being pointed to the Derby?


--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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  #11  
Old 04-05-2009, 01:23 PM
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Having already bet CHOCOLATE CANDY to win in the first two pools I used this pool to wheel and backwheel with the other favorites and some longshots in the exacta future. Considering his seven week layoff, slow pace and wide run I was quite happy with his race yesterday.
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  #12  
Old 04-05-2009, 02:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
Musket Man has a 0% chance of going a mile and a quarter.
He wasn't going to get 8.5f or 9f either... Horses that run 9f competitively and finish in :37.0 and :12.2 will add a 10th furlong just fine. He's hardly a likely Derby winner, but those that have dismissed him non-stop should probably find someone else to belittle at this point.
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Last edited by Kasept : 04-05-2009 at 02:44 PM.
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  #13  
Old 04-05-2009, 02:10 PM
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2pm Future Prices:

1 Charitable Man Kiaran McLaughlin 30 40
2 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer 30 22
3 Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor 30 18
4 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher 8 12
5 Flying Private D. Lukas 50 66
6 Friesan Fire J. Jones 8 7

7 Giant Oak Chris Block 30 59
8 Hold Me Back William Mott 30 27
9 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins 8 9/2
10 Imperial Council Claude McGaughey III 20 41
11 Mafaaz (GB) John Gosden 50 80
12 Musket Man Derek Ryan 30 30

13 Mr. Hot Stuff Eoin Harty 30 99
14 Old Fashioned J. Jones 10 11
15 Papa Clem Gary Stute 30 52
16 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert 10 11
17 Quality Road James Jerkens 6 5
18 Regal Ransom Saeed bin Suroor 30 44

19 Take the Points Todd Pletcher 30 99
20 Terrain Albert Stall, Jr. 50 52
21 The Pamplemousse Julio Canani 10 17
22 Theregoesjojo Kenneth McPeek 20 52
23 Win Willy McLean Robertson 20 16
24 All Other Three Ye 10 17
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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  #14  
Old 04-05-2009, 02:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept

2 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer 30 22
4 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher 8 12
15 Papa Clem Gary Stute 30 52

[/b]
These three look like the value right now...

Chocolate needs to get a little higher to assure of being a better price here than Derby Day. Dunkirk is going to get in and 12-1 would be OK considering he will be less for Derby. Should Papa Clem win at Oaklawn next week, that 52-1 will be twice what you'll get May 2.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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  #15  
Old 04-05-2009, 04:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
These three look like the value right now...

2 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer 30 22
4 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher 8 12
15 Papa Clem Gary Stute 30 52

Chocolate needs to get a little higher to assure of being a better price here than Derby Day. Dunkirk is going to get in and 12-1 would be OK considering he will be less for Derby. Should Papa Clem win at Oaklawn next week, that 52-1 will be twice what you'll get May 2.
I'd factor in at least 10% for the chance that the horse will not make it to the Derby for various reasons (mainly illness or injury). If I knew Chocolate Candy would be 20-1 on Derby Day if it runs, then I'd prefer that to taking 22-1 today. (Not saying I like the horse at that price--no opinion really)

--Dunbar
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  #16  
Old 04-05-2009, 09:32 PM
jpops757 jpops757 is offline
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Mr hot stuff surely ran better yesterday than his 99/1 odds. Of course he is going to need more improvement to be a win posibility.
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  #17  
Old 04-05-2009, 09:51 PM
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philcski philcski is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
He wasn't going to get 8.5f or 9f either... Horses that run 9f competitively and finish in :37.0 and :12.2 will add a 10th furlong just fine. He's hardly a likely Derby winner, but those that have dismissed him non-stop should probably find someone else to belittle at this point.
Wasn't knocking him, in fact I like the horse- hey, I'd love to see him win compared to other potentials, including the probable post time favorite. He certainly impressed me yesterday more than I would have expected. I just really feel strongly that he's not a 10F horse and could make a ton of money in the "Silly Season" Derbies instead of giving a run and potentially getting knocked out in Kentucky.
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  #18  
Old 04-06-2009, 08:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
Wasn't knocking him, in fact I like the horse- hey, I'd love to see him win compared to other potentials, including the probable post time favorite. He certainly impressed me yesterday more than I would have expected. I just really feel strongly that he's not a 10F horse and could make a ton of money in the "Silly Season" Derbies instead of giving a run and potentially getting knocked out in Kentucky.
Phil,

I think they would be crazy not to try Derby. Look at his fractions from Saturday:

:24.4
:23.2 (:48.1)
:24.3 (:48.0)
:24.3 (:49.1)
:12.2 (:37.0)

This is the kind of horse that can light the exotics at 35-1 by running evenly all the way around and finishing third or fourth. Even though he's not bred for it, think Steppenwolfer or Imawildncrazyguy type performer. Derek Ryan insisted to me that this horse has the type of disposition and action to keep on going at a steady clip. I was incredulous too, but it's tough to deny him about it now. And he's of course done a great job picking spots with him to make the money he has. Having Coa involved is the biggest drawback. He could screw up a wet dream.
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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  #19  
Old 04-06-2009, 08:48 AM
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jon white called p.o.n the tripple crown winner on hr yesterday..vercurzy rolled eyes and went ..i want revenge
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  #20  
Old 04-06-2009, 09:11 AM
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POOL 3 FINALS

1 Charitable Man Kiaran McLaughlin 30 45
2 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer 30 18
3 Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor 30 16
4 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher 8 11
5 Flying Private D. Lukas 50 77
6 Friesan Fire J. Jones 8 8

7 Giant Oak Chris Block 30 53
8 Hold Me Back William Mott 30 24
9 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins 8 9/2
10 Imperial Council Claude McGaughey III 20 54
11 Mafaaz (GB) John Gosden 50 73
12 Musket Man Derek Ryan 30 25

13 Mr. Hot Stuff Eoin Harty 30 96
14 Old Fashioned J. Jones 10 12
15 Papa Clem Gary Stute 30 47
16 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert 10 9
17 Quality Road James Jerkens 6 6
18 Regal Ransom Saeed bin Suroor 30 42

19 Take the Points Todd Pletcher 30 99
20 Terrain Albert Stall, Jr. 50 47
21 The Pamplemousse SUSPENDED
22 Theregoesjojo Kenneth McPeek 20 49
23 Win Willy McLean Robertson 20 16
24 All Other 3yo's 10 17
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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