Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 04-01-2009, 05:55 PM
PeteMugg's Avatar
PeteMugg PeteMugg is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Indiana
Posts: 1,303
Default

They were gonna put Proceed Bee on here ... but it would be Monday before Battaglia would spit out his morning line.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 04-02-2009, 10:37 AM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,962
Default

Interestingly (to me, at least), TheGreek has put up a line based (again) on the Pool 2 horses. Here it is:

2201 Bears Rocket
2202 Beethoven
2203 Big Drama
2204 Chocolate Candy +2250
2205 Desert Party +2250
2206 Dunkirk +1415
2207 Flying Pegasus +8550
2208 Friesan Fire +1025
2209 General Quarters +10250
2210 Giant Oak +3250
2211 Hello Broadway +7250
2212 I Want Revenge +1015
2213 Imperial Council +2550
2214 Old Fashioned +1415
2215 Papa Clem +4550
2216 Patena +5250
2217 Pioneer of the Nile +1415
2218 Quality Road +705
2219 Silver City
2220 Take the Points +8050
2221 The Pamplemousse +1525
2222 Theregoesjojo
2223 West Side Bernie +4550
2224 Any Other Horse +175


A blank means they are not offering odds. Note that the "All Other Horses" is down to 1.75-1. Makes Pool 2's 4.9-1 look good. The "takeout" on this line is 15.7%, but doesn't include the remote possibility that one of the horses like Big Drama or Theregoesjojo could actually run and win.

There are odds at TheGreek for some of the new Pool 3 horses, too:

2231 Regal Ransom +2850
2232 Terrain +3550
2233 Hold Me Back +4050
2234 Musket Man +8050
2235 Win Willy +4550
2236 Mafaaz +4050
2237 Stardom Bound +4550
2238 Square Eddie +3550


--Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 04-03-2009, 10:07 AM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,962
Default

The only change from yesterday in the odds at TheGreek that I posted above is that Quality Road has dropped from 7.05-1 to 5.25-1. (increasing the overall vig from 15.8% to 18.3%.)

CRIS/Bookmaker still has 7-1 on Quality Road.

At KentuckyDerby.com it's pretty hard to tell that there is exacta wagering in Pool 3. If you click on "Current Odds" for Pool 3, it only shows you win odds, with not even a mention of exacta odds.

--Dunbar

PS--At 5Dimes there are no Kentucky Derby futures up, but at least you can bet on how many hotdogs will be eaten at Nathan's Coney Island Contest on July 4. It's televised, too.

Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest - Coney Island, New York - July 4, 2009 - ESPN

Chestnut or Kobayashi must participate & contest duration must be 10 minutes for action

Nathan's winner eats over 62˝ hot dogs -120
Nathan's winner eats under 62˝ hot dogs -120


I wonder who's bigger? Chestnut or Spanish Chestnut?
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 04-03-2009, 11:14 AM
tjfla tjfla is offline
Aqueduct
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 649
Default

Musket Man looks good at 30-1 especially if he runs big in Illinois!!!!
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 04-03-2009, 11:35 AM
philcski's Avatar
philcski philcski is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Mission Viejo, CA
Posts: 8,872
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tjfla
Musket Man looks good at 30-1 especially if he runs big in Illinois!!!!
Musket Man has a 0% chance of going a mile and a quarter.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 04-03-2009, 03:03 PM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,962
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
Musket Man has a 0% chance of going a mile and a quarter.
Couldn't you have written 0.001% chance, just to keep me happy? ;>)

--Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 04-03-2009, 03:09 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,629
Default

Musket Man will get 10 furlongs.....















































It might just take 2:10

NT
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 04-04-2009, 09:43 PM
gales0678 gales0678 is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: new york
Posts: 3,670
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
Musket Man has a 0% chance of going a mile and a quarter.
maybe be so , but all he does is win
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 04-05-2009, 09:35 AM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,962
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gales0678
maybe be so , but all he does is win
I'm guessing even philcski would put down $1 if he could get 1000-1 on Musket Man.

I'd settle for 50-1, because I think Musket Man has a chance far above 0% to win. I wish I had some of the 80-1 that was available offshore before yesterday's race.

--Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 04-05-2009, 01:07 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 44,074
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
Musket Man has a 0% chance of going a mile and a quarter.
He wasn't going to get 8.5f or 9f either... Horses that run 9f competitively and finish in :37.0 and :12.2 will add a 10th furlong just fine. He's hardly a likely Derby winner, but those that have dismissed him non-stop should probably find someone else to belittle at this point.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.

Last edited by Kasept : 04-05-2009 at 01:44 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 04-05-2009, 01:10 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 44,074
Default

2pm Future Prices:

1 Charitable Man Kiaran McLaughlin 30 40
2 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer 30 22
3 Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor 30 18
4 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher 8 12
5 Flying Private D. Lukas 50 66
6 Friesan Fire J. Jones 8 7

7 Giant Oak Chris Block 30 59
8 Hold Me Back William Mott 30 27
9 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins 8 9/2
10 Imperial Council Claude McGaughey III 20 41
11 Mafaaz (GB) John Gosden 50 80
12 Musket Man Derek Ryan 30 30

13 Mr. Hot Stuff Eoin Harty 30 99
14 Old Fashioned J. Jones 10 11
15 Papa Clem Gary Stute 30 52
16 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert 10 11
17 Quality Road James Jerkens 6 5
18 Regal Ransom Saeed bin Suroor 30 44

19 Take the Points Todd Pletcher 30 99
20 Terrain Albert Stall, Jr. 50 52
21 The Pamplemousse Julio Canani 10 17
22 Theregoesjojo Kenneth McPeek 20 52
23 Win Willy McLean Robertson 20 16
24 All Other Three Ye 10 17
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 04-05-2009, 08:51 PM
philcski's Avatar
philcski philcski is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Mission Viejo, CA
Posts: 8,872
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
He wasn't going to get 8.5f or 9f either... Horses that run 9f competitively and finish in :37.0 and :12.2 will add a 10th furlong just fine. He's hardly a likely Derby winner, but those that have dismissed him non-stop should probably find someone else to belittle at this point.
Wasn't knocking him, in fact I like the horse- hey, I'd love to see him win compared to other potentials, including the probable post time favorite. He certainly impressed me yesterday more than I would have expected. I just really feel strongly that he's not a 10F horse and could make a ton of money in the "Silly Season" Derbies instead of giving a run and potentially getting knocked out in Kentucky.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 04-03-2009, 11:38 AM
gales0678 gales0678 is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: new york
Posts: 3,670
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tjfla
Musket Man looks good at 30-1 especially if he runs big in Illinois!!!!

he's now 99/1

derek ryan is a good trainer , if he does win Ill why not take a shot on the 1st sat in may
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:24 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.