California two best 3yo's dirt projections...

[Habersham000]

Very Nice write up....

I don't think you can eliminate The Pamplemousse solely based on Pedigree ...prime example would be Smarty Jones...many people did not like him based on his pedigree and we all know what he did in the Derby

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Habersham000

Very Nice write up....

I don't think you can eliminate The Pamplemousse solely based on Pedigree ...prime example would be Smarty Jones...many people did not like him based on his pedigree and we all know what he did in the Derby

I think you CAN eliminate him based off his last race, that horse looked like crap coming into the winner circle. Looked like he wanted to pass out for months.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him off the board in his next race

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Scav

I think you CAN eliminate him based off his last race, that horse looked like crap coming into the winner circle. Looked like he wanted to pass out for months.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him off the board in his next race

Really? I thought he looked pretty darn comfortable.

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Really? I thought he looked pretty darn comfortable.

I was thinking the same thing... I didn't remember him looking completely "gassed"

[tjfla]

Well it didnt look like he was ready to run another 8f but looked good standing there.

Still a concern would be the DIRT for me even tho he is bred for it

PTN does not do anything for me at all

[ateamstupid]

I just hate The Pamplemousse's stride and will not be using him. As for Pioneerof the Nile, it's not so much that he debuted on turf that's a red flag. Rather, it's that despite his NY connections, he wasn't entered in any of the east coast dirt stakes for two-year-olds. Not only that, he went straight from turf to synthetic, then shipped out west for more synthetic, where Zayat had previously made a big show of not running his horses, and stayed there. It's one thing to debut a horse on turf. It's another to run twice on turf, then go to synthetic, then ship across the country to continue running on synthetic when the rest of your stock is running here, on dirt.

[SOREHOOF]

I think overall the 3yo competition on the west coast is pretty weak compared to what's running on the east coast regardless of the surface.

[Diver67]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I just hate The Pamplemousse's stride and will not be using him. As for Pioneerof the Nile, it's not so much that he debuted on turf that's a red flag. Rather, it's that despite his NY connections, he wasn't entered in any of the east coast dirt stakes for two-year-olds. Not only that, he went straight from turf to synthetic, then shipped out west for more synthetic, where Zayat had previously made a big show of not running his horses, and stayed there. It's one thing to debut a horse on turf. It's another to run twice on turf, then go to synthetic, then ship across the country to continue running on synthetic when the rest of your stock is running here, on dirt.

Zayat sent a bunch of horses to California last fall after they split with Bill Mott. Baffert and Mike Mitchell both have several, so it isn't as if POTN was a special "hey this horse can't run on dirt" case. Its possible Zayat wanted to get their potential Derby horse in Baffert's hands. (He's also got their Zensational, who looked crazy fast good in his debut.)

[Scav]

Originally Posted by smuthg

I was thinking the same thing... I didn't remember him looking completely "gassed"

after the race it seems like it took forever to get him back to the grandstand, Solis was stopping and letting him catch his breath, he was breathing REALLY hard in the winner circle and if I am not mistaken, even Privman mentioned something about it also in his article

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Scav

after the race it seems like it took forever to get him back to the grandstand, Solis was stopping and letting him catch his breath, he was breathing REALLY hard in the winner circle and if I am not mistaken, even Privman mentioned something about it also in his article

Might be a good idea to check his two prior races (to the last one) for any sign of a TIRED horse. CALRACING offers extended replays, so you can check him out coming back to the paddock.

Your theory would have us believe that the horse wouldn't have won again after breaking his maiden -- and he's won TWICE since. He's just not in a hurry to come back or to run on beyond the wire.

[HaloWishingwell]

I'll be back after The Santa Anita Derby for CHOCOLATE CANDY'S analysis

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Might be a good idea to check his two prior races (to the last one) for any sign of a TIRED horse. CALRACING offers extended replays, so you can check him out coming back to the paddock.

Your theory would have us believe that the horse wouldn't have won again after breaking his maiden -- and he's won TWICE since. He's just not in a hurry to come back or to run on beyond the wire.

Hideous action on that horse. You would think he would have to be tired using that action to get around the track. Must have some huge lungs.