4 possible sweet 16 acc/big east matchups

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Unbalanced schedule. Since they didn't play at North Carolina you might as well treat them as a 10-6 team instead of 11-5. Even if you want to treat them as 11-5 they still lost first round and finished 11-6. Duke meanwhile went 14-5.

Wake isn't #16, they were #14, Washington was #13. They got bumped down to playing Louisville cause the committee couldn't put them in the same bracket as North Carolina and Duke.

They could have put them in the same bracket as Duke since they wouldn't potentially meet until the Elite 8, but they decided not to. I thought the selection committee actually did an outstanding job this year of seeding the teams. The top 4 lines are very balanced. It really looks like they made the effort to get the best positions possible within the rules, and the commissioner said they did spend a lot of time on it this year.

How I had them seeded 1-16 after all the conf tournaments ended:
Louisville, UNC, Pitt, UConn
Memphis, Duke, Michigan State, Kansas
Oklahoma, Syracuse, Missouri, Wake Forest
Villanova, Washington, West Virginia, Florida State
(Gonzaga 17, Xavier 18)

How it looks like the committee seeded them on the S-curve:
Louisville, UNC, Pitt, UConn
Memphis, Duke, Oklahoma, Michigan State
Kansas, Syracuse, Villanova, Missouri
Washington, Xavier, Gonzaga, Wake Forest
(Florida State 18, West Virginia ??)

* Keeping in mind they probably had to move West Virginia out of the 4-5 game because they wouldn't be able to face 3 of the 4 #1's until the Elite 8, if at all possible. That's why they're probably the best #6 I've ever seen, and like you said Wake had to be shifted down two on the curve to fit as well.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

They could have put them in the same bracket as Duke since they wouldn't potentially meet until the Elite 8, but they decided not to.

Actually they couldn't:

The first three teams selected from each conference must be placed in different regions. When a conference has more than three teams in the tournament, the committee tries to seed the teams so that they cannot meet until the regional final. Before 2006, this was an absolute rule. However, in the summer of 2005, the NCAA changed its rules to allow intraconference matchups as early as the second round of the tournament, assuming all measures to keep the teams apart until the regional finals have been exhausted.

[gales0678]

Lousiville got scrwed for being the #1 seed and u conn was rewarded for losing and dropping to the #4 seed

ask any coach in the country who would you rather play on a neutral court wash or wake -

look at the odds scott , they are telling you that i am correct

why is wake 9/2 to get out of their region and wash 10/1 , when both louisville and conn are 2/1 ??? the sharps are going to put their $$$ on better teams , this is professional $$$ that went onto wake it did not go onto wash


does anyone really believe Wash could win against UNC , even in Pullman????

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by gales0678

Lousiville got scrwed for being the #1 seed and u conn was rewarded for losing and dropping to the #4 seed

ask any coach in the country who would you rather play on a neutral court wash or wake -

look at the odds scott , they are telling you that i am correct

why is wake 9/2 to get out of their region and wash 10/1 , when both louisville and conn are 2/1 ??? the sharps are going to put their $$$ on better teams , this is professional $$$ that went onto wake it did not go onto wash


does anyone really believe Wash could win against UNC , even in Pullman????

Ultimately they decided the top team from the P10 was better than the 3rd team from the ACC. Are they probably wrong on that decision? Yeah, but I can at least understand where they are coming from. It was circumstance that got them bumped from 14 to 16 though, not the committee's fault.

Part of the reason that the odds on Wake winning their bracket is so good is that Louisville is a very beatable one seed. They lost to Western Kentucky, Minnesota, UNLV, and Notre Dame while going 16-2 in the Big East with the benefit of not having to play at Connecticut or at Pittsburgh which could easily be the difference between 16-2 and 14-4. As a Siena fan I hated getting a 9 seed (10 or 11 would have been much better) but am at least thrilled that they got matched up with the only 1 seed they could possibly beat. Sure it's a 5% chance they beat Louisville but that is better than the 0% chance against Pitt/NC/Conn who would murder them inside.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Ultimately they decided the top team from the P10 was better than the 3rd team from the ACC. Are they probably wrong on that decision? Yeah, but I can at least understand where they are coming from. It was circumstance that got them bumped from 14 to 16 though, not the committee's fault.

Part of the reason that the odds on Wake winning their bracket is so good is that Louisville is a very beatable one seed. They lost to Western Kentucky, Minnesota, UNLV, and Notre Dame while going 16-2 in the Big East with the benefit of not having to play at Connecticut or at Pittsburgh which could easily be the difference between 16-2 and 14-4. As a Siena fan I hated getting a 9 seed (10 or 11 would have been much better) but am at least thrilled that they got matched up with the only 1 seed they could possibly beat. Sure it's a 5% chance they beat Louisville but that is better than the 0% chance against Pitt/NC/Conn who would murder them inside.

i watched wake push UNC and Duke around they are a top 10 team and for them to be anything other than a #3 or better is a joke , rpi rankings and all

Louisville in my opinion will be the first #1 seed out , i watched it with my own eyes no team took it to carolina like the did this year , they beat duke aslo whe the blue devils were #1 , they can beat louisville

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by gales0678

i watched wake push UNC and Duke around they are a top 10 team and for them to be anything other than a #3 or better is a joke , rpi rankings and all

Louisville in my opinion will be the first #1 seed out , i watched it with my own eyes no team took it to carolina like the did this year , they beat duke aslo whe the blue devils were #1 , they can beat louisville

Wake should probably stop worrying about Louisville anyways. Cleveland State is no pushover (see the win in the Carrier Dome) and Arizona could be a tough second round game.

[gales0678]

I don't think they are , i am just projecting , the coach has them focused on 1 game at a time i'm sure

i just think that they will play with a chip on the shoulder , they stunk agaisnt MD and are fresh and will be ready to go in my opinion

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Actually they couldn't:

The first three teams selected from each conference must be placed in different regions. When a conference has more than three teams in the tournament, the committee tries to seed the teams so that they cannot meet until the regional final. Before 2006, this was an absolute rule. However, in the summer of 2005, the NCAA changed its rules to allow intraconference matchups as early as the second round of the tournament, assuming all measures to keep the teams apart until the regional finals have been exhausted.

Good catch. I didn't know that rule was absolute but it clearly states as such.

[gales0678]

also Kansas is a #3 seed and they are 7/1 to win their region , yet they would play MSU(4/1 to win regino) in the sweet 16 and not the number 1 team in the county

coach (pitino) cannot like this draw

the futures are telling you that wake would be a pick vs msu and they would be favored over KU in an elite 8 match up and they are the #4 seed

[philcski]

Originally Posted by gales0678

also Kansas is a #3 seed and they are 7/1 to win their region , yet they would play MSU(4/1 to win regino) in the sweet 16 and not the number 1 team in the county

coach (pitino) cannot like this draw

the futures are telling you that wake would be a pick vs msu and they would be favored over KU in an elite 8 match up and they are the #4 seed

How heavy are the books do you think on Wake to win the NC considering they went from a midpack ACC projection to #1? That might be factoring into the current futures.

I don't think anyone is doubting Wake is easily the best #4, because they are.

[gales0678]

projected lines of #1 - #4

U Conn - 8 over Wash
Louisviille -2.5 over wake
Unc -12 over Zaga
Pitt -11 over xavier

let's see if these games happen and then let's see how close i get to the actual lines on game day

you can't tell me pitino doesn't feel he got screwed here

[ateamstupid]

Wake really isn't that good. They play good defense, but they have trouble scoring and Teague is really inconsistent. There's no way in hell they'd beat Louisville. The Cards are basically the same team as Wake, but better. Better defense, better guards, better big men.

And I don't know why the hell everyone has Gonzaga as such an easy out for a top seed. This is a Top 5 team in the tournament talent-wise and they haven't been sniffed since the Memphis loss. In all of the "who have you beaten" obsession, people forget to look at how a team has played. Gonzaga is a machine right now with no serious deficiencies, and I took a flyer on them at that 25-1 price.

[gales0678]

Will see Joey , i think 'ville is overhyped , like sniper pointed out they didn't have to play against the conn or pitt on the road or in the big east tourney, they caught syracuse in a 5th game in 3 nights situation in the finals so to me that game is a throwout

if they play like they did against villanova in the 1st half wake could be gone by halftime

remember this is a team that lost by over 30 to ND , not 5 not 10 not , 30 sometihng points , teams with heart don't lose like that

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by gales0678

remember this is a team that lost by over 30 to ND , not 5 not 10 not , 30 sometihng points , teams with heart don't lose like that

You do realize Wake lost by 27 to Miami right?

[kenny p]

Nova is 35/1. Not bad.

[gales0678]

the point of the thread joey was that we are to believe that wake is the #16 team in the country ?

if you were pitino who would you rather see in the sweet 16 of all the 4's ?


i posted some lines of the #1 vs #4 's - why don't tell me where my lines are wrong and then if they all get there we can check it out

Wake is a favorite over Kansas and a pickem against MSU in the elite 8

"zaga is a dog against cuse or OU in a regional final

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You do realize Wake lost by 27 to Miami right?

yes - but you know what i am glad they did , they are your age joey, what do you think the boys did down in miami the night before ??? 'ville doesn't have an excuse for south bend ain't no miami

i have to hope that they learned thier lesson and will let az , clev st and utah hit collins ave wed and thursday nite

[kenny p]

I agree about Gonzaga. I too took a stab with them at 30/1. Also took Memphis at 10/1. Good Luck to all that gamble during the tourney. KP

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by kenny p

I agree about Gonzaga. I too took a stab with them at 30/1. Also took Memphis at 10/1. Good Luck to all that gamble during the tourney. KP

My first one since Ive been betting that I wont be wagering in. Still super excited.

VILL-A-NOVA!!!!

Good luck!

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by philcski

* Keeping in mind they probably had to move West Virginia out of the 4-5 game because they wouldn't be able to face 3 of the 4 #1's until the Elite 8, if at all possible. That's why they're probably the best #6 I've ever seen, and like you said Wake had to be shifted down two on the curve to fit as well.

you're absolutely correct. they moved a couple teams down to keep them out of the same 1/2 of a bracket as another team from their conference. I also think that happened to a couple more teams too. I actually saw WV play once this year and if they're on, they are more like a 3 seed, not a 6.