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#1
03-16-2009, 01:05 PM
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I'm not disagreeing with anything you guys are saying, but does anyone actually believe that Jones was really pointing his horse for a big effort here? The evidence strongly suggests otherwise. That's why they call them prep races folks.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit. 
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#2
03-16-2009, 01:41 PM
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#3
03-16-2009, 08:30 PM
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Jones took Hard Spun back off of the pace in a prep at Oaklawn, also 2nd off the layoff, and would up finishing 4th with him beaten by the Jamie Sanders trained Tufelsburger. I think a combo of Dominguez's fear of letting Silver City have it his way - and Jones remembering the egg on his face after Hard Spun was taken back in the Southwest - might have been a big reason why he was surprisingly sent leaving the gate. He also didn't look very comfy taking dirt in his face in a still picture of his lone work for this race. If you look at Larry Jones three Derby males - they have a lot in commen. - Debuts at Delaware Park * 85 Beyer in closing victory for Old Fashioned * 84 Beyer in wire-to-wire win for Hard Spun * 81 Beyer in on-pace win for Friesan Fire - Start to Start improvement * Friesan Fire: 2nd with a 77 Beyer in a FG alw first off the layoff, won a trio of stakes with a 93, 96, and 104 in his next three respectively. * Hard Spun: won the Lecomte over Izzy's Halo 1st back, beaten in the Southwest 2nd back, won the Spiral 3rd back, and strong on-pace 2nd in Derby 4th back. * Old Fashioned: Improved figure from 93-to-98 from start 1-to-2 despite only having a single work in between starts. His fillys like Proud Spell and Eight Belles also both debuted at Delaware - and got much better as 3yos - Eight Belles never did have a layoff though - and Proud Spell actually went backwards in her final Ky Oaks prep ... which was at Keeneland over polytrack. It was probably pre-mature to say that Friesan Fire isn't a Derby contender even after he lost the alw race to Uno Mass and was a confirmed bum as a 2yo. He's a Jones horse. It was probably pre-mature to say Eight Belles wasn't a Derby contender after her lovely 1-for-6 2-year-old season - where her top Beyer was 78 and she ran several horrific races. She's a Jones horse. It was probably pre-mature to say Hard Spun wasn't a Derby contender just because his top 2yo Beyer was only 87 after three races - and he had just run 4th to Jamie Sanders in a prep. He's a Jones horse. It's also pre-mature to write off Old Fashioned right now. He - at least - managed to run fast at Delaware as a 2yo...and in a route no less. Oh yeah, and he's a Jones horse. Where are all the halfway decent Jones horses that go backwards?? Island Sand? She wasn't that much for Tony Dutrow .. transfer her to Jones and she almost wins the Fantasy and runs 2nd at a big price in the Ky Oaks - and takes the Grade 1 Acorn next out. Where are any of them?
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#5
03-16-2009, 09:11 PM
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He's had two Derby starters - Hard Spun (2nd at 10/1) and Eight Belles (2nd at 13/1)
He's had two Oaks starters - Island Sand (2nd at 17/1) Proud Spell ($8.80) Getting your first four starters in those two races to all finish in the exacta is pretty amazing. It's why I had trouble totally bashing the despicably talentless Friesan Fire after his two weak races 1st and 2nd off the layoff. It's why I almost certainly won't be betting Old Fashioned ... but want no part of bashing him. He's the only one of all these Jones horses that I've watched run as a 2yo and didn't say to myself "that horse stinks." Anyone remember Wildcat Bettie B? Debuted at Prarie Meadows - was eased at Canturbury Park as a 2yo. Was beaten 15 lengths in the Martha Washington as a 3yo. Jones gets her to win the Miss Preakness, the Grade 1 Prioress, and the Grade 3 Victory Ride back-to-back-to-back through the middle of her 3yo season. His horses are like that guy with the hockey mask in Friday the 13th. They just keep steadily coming forward.
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#6
03-16-2009, 09:16 PM
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In my mind, Hard Spun won that Derby at 10-1. Borel should have signed over half his check to Liquidity's rider (Flores?) immediately upon receipt. Many people questioned HS's ability to get a distance his entire career.
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#7
03-16-2009, 09:58 PM
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Win Willy has to prove his race is true on a dry track. Not only does he have great wet track breeding ... but coming into the race - his trainer Mac Robertson was 16-for-52 (31% wins) $2.52 ROI lifetime with all routers on a wet dirt track. Now he's 17-for-53 with a $4.65 ROI lifetime. If Win Willy doesn't prove he's close to the same horse on a fast dirt track - Mac Robertson might get the DrugS "wet track trainer" label that Cannon Shell covets.
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#8
03-16-2009, 11:16 PM
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I was obviously wrong. That's a hell of a Derby/Oaks record, though.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#9
03-16-2009, 09:23 PM
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If Silver City isn't in the Rebel, does Old Fashioned win on an easy lead?
Prepping twice against Silver City hasn't been easy for a speed horse. The pace they went for 6furlongs in each in each of the last two was pretty fast for each respective card. There is some chance that they went really fast for the first 5 or 6 furlongs relative to track weight. The problem is that the K.Derby isn't necessarily going to be any easier of a pace scenario. What can Old Fashioned do in those kind of situations where quality early speed wants to set fractions that are much too fast to maintain?? I don't know that there is a good answer. Could Old Fashioned have ignored Silver City and settled into a cruise 4 lengths back- just clear of the 2nd group Hamazing Destiny, Poltergeist and co. ? Would it have helped? When they come home the last 2.5 in 33+ it's hard to be optimistic about a stretchout and a step-up.
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