Win Willy

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Win Willy's dam was a solid D Wayne Lukas sprinter who once ran 2nd to Xtra Heat in a stake.

Nice win today coming from 16 lengths back after the opening quarter - and posted that nice win in good time.

However, there is some sadness to this story.

If anyone's not familar with his trainer ... he's 142-for-437 (32.5% wins) at Canterbury Park over the last two years. By comparison - the mystical Jamie Ness is just 97-for-389 (24.9% wins) at Canterbury Park over the last two years.

I am sure you have see how Ness's horse seemingly almost stop at the quarter pole now, it is amazing what happens when you can't rely on steriods and other insaneness and you actually have to train a little

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Ah, Scav ...

I hate breaking the news to you .... but Ness is 43-for-110 (39% wins) and $2.58 ROI with all dirt horses in 2009.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Ah, Scav ...

I hate breaking the news to you .... but Ness is 43-for-110 (39% wins) and $2.58 ROI with all dirt horses in 2009.

2009? Are you sure? Maybe my perception was way off, but I have seen some of his horses at Tampa run absolutely horrible.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He's 47-for-146 (32.2% wins) and a $2.18 ROI with all starters at Tampa this meet.

He was 2-for-48 last October - and struggled for a short time before coming to Tampa.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's 47-for-146 (32.2% wins) and a $2.18 ROI with all starters at Tampa this meet.

He was 2-for-48 last October - and struggled for a short time before coming to Tampa.

This is why I say things like this for you to confirm or deny.

Thank you for not letting me sound like an idiot when I go on a rampage at the OTB

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Old Fashioned was less than two lengths off the 22 3/5 quarter and a 46-flat half set by Silver City, who is a very talented sprinter. OF ran quite hard from start to finish and still finished eight lengths clear of everybody else. While it's nowhere near a Derby performance, OF wasn't a slouch by any stretch today. I'm thinking King's Bishop could up his wheelhouse (and Silver City's) by the time the Derby Trail dust settles.

Yea, I agree with you about O.F. He is no slouch. Sort of reminds me of Smarty Jones with an even more impatient rider, and a little less stamina. Look, there simply seemed to be very little grey matter being used by his connections in this race. They made no effort whatsoever to rate off a horse going too fast. Compared to the horses in 1st n' 3rd on the backstretch, where did O.F. finish? Look where the winner is on the backstretch. They went too fast. 50-1 HORSES WIN TRAINWRECKS, and that's what this race was. He's lost one time, and it was (to me) due to overconfidence. They need to get him to relax more and/or try another rider that's more willing to save something for the 2nd half of the race. Has to also recover well from this race. I don't think he can be thrown out, but they don't seem to have a plan to get 10f. A track bias would appear to be mandatory.

[Thunder Gulch]

I would't throw Old Fashioned out just yet. He was obviously not cranked up for this with a light workload in the last month, and as discussed, those fractions he chased will take the starch out of most 3yo. Afleet Alex ran a poor Rebel (rumored sick) before Richey really got him dialed in for the remainder of the spring.

[blackthroatedwind]

I am missing something with the Old Fashioned/Afleet Alex analogy.

I think an Old Fashioned/Rockport Harbor analogy would be more fitting.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Scav

Thank you for not letting me sound like an idiot when I go on a rampage at the OTB

Too late.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Too late.

Was in rare form this weekend, caught a hot streak and was 5 for 5 at Santa Anita and alive to 6700 and 90k. I thought Satan's Twin was going to have a heart attack he was screaming so loud for the 90k horse to not hang

[johnny pinwheel]

everyone is blaming the rider but i didn't like the way old fashioned ran. to me it appeared as if he was pulling and chasing the lead horse. OF was working hard from the get go. this does not bode well as the distances get longer. if this horse does not develop some rateability his chances are nil.

[gales0678]

imperial council takes down old fashinon in may

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by gales0678

imperial council takes down old fashinon in may

if OF runs like he did saturday, he'll be lucky to be in the super.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I am missing something with the Old Fashioned/Afleet Alex analogy.

I think an Old Fashioned/Rockport Harbor analogy would be more fitting.

Both won the Southwest and lost the Rebel. What's so hard to understand about that? Not making any predictions about the future, just saying it's too early to toss a talented horse that clearly wasn't pointed to that spot.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Both won the Southwest and lost the Rebel. What's so hard to understand about that? Not making any predictions about the future, just saying it's too early to toss a talented horse that clearly wasn't pointed to that spot.

Let's see, Afleet Alex was an accomplished 2YO, who won a Grade 1, and placed in two others including the BC ( where he was tons the best ), whereas Old Fashioned was a hype machine that won one race of any meaning ( against a field that is now being shown to have been claimer riddled ). Afleet Alex bombed in the Rebel, so badly that it wasn't hard to believe the lung infection story after the race, whereas hype machine Old Fashioned lost probably because he's both too keen and distance challenged. Now, don't get me wrong, Old Fashioned is a nice horse, but these two situations are only comparable in that the same race is involved. Please don't compare Old Fashioned to Afleet Alex.

Sorry, but I will beg to differ on whether or not Old Fashioned was being pointed for the Rebel.

[parsixfarms]

Assuming Silver City, after fading very badly in this weekend's race, does not run back in the Arkansas Derby, the race dynamics will change significantly - and to the benefit of Old Fashioned.

Everyone is going crazy about Friesan Fire and I Want Revenge, but neither has yet to prove his mettle in a race with a solid pace. Their respective races in the Louisiana Derby and Gotham were virtually identical; each stalked a slow pace and drew off when the other "speed" could not go on with it, and the pace worked to the detriment of the closers.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Let's see, Afleet Alex was an accomplished 2YO, who won a Grade 1, and placed in two others including the BC ( where he was tons the best ), whereas Old Fashioned was a hype machine that won one race of any meaning ( against a field that is now being shown to have been claimer riddled ). Afleet Alex bombed in the Rebel, so badly that it wasn't hard to believe the lung infection story after the race, whereas hype machine Old Fashioned lost probably because he's both too keen and distance challenged. Now, don't get me wrong, Old Fashioned is a nice horse, but these two situations are only comparable in that the same race is involved. Please don't compare Old Fashioned to Afleet Alex.

Sorry, but I will beg to differ on whether or not Old Fashioned was being pointed for the Rebel.

That's exactly what I said at the beginning in saying Afleet Alex ran his worst race in the Rebel and now Old Fashioned has run his worst to date. Afleet Alex certainly beat better fields at 2, but Old Fashioned was never challenged and ran comparable figures. To say he's "distance challenged" at this point is pure speculation. He clearly hasn't been pushed at all with one work in a month, and ran second by 8 on class alone after chasing a fast pace.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

That's exactly what I said at the beginning in saying Afleet Alex ran his worst race in the Rebel and now Old Fashioned has run his worst to date. Afleet Alex certainly beat better fields at 2, but Old Fashioned was never challenged and ran comparable figures. To say he's "distance challenged" at this point is pure speculation. He clearly hasn't been pushed at all with one work in a month, and ran second by 8 on class alone after chasing a fast pace.

I beg to differ. I think he ran second by eight lengths because the rest of the field sucked....badly. Did you take a good look at their respective pps?

Old Fashioned is a nice horse. In some years he might even be a Derby contender. Not this year.

[ArlJim78]

a top derby contender should be able to run on a fast pace for 1 1/16 miles with a good inside post at Oaklawn with no other top derby competitors in the race and not get mowed down late.

if he can't handle that challenge, how in the world will he handle the derby?

[slotdirt]

I don't know, I can't toss the horse out yet, particularly with the underwhelming efforts of many others out there thus far.