Win Willy

[mclem0822]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Raise your hand if you saw that one coming. I guess seeing Larry only worked his horse once in a month I can see him losing, but WW wouldn't have been my first pick...of course it makes a little sense looking back now.

I had win bets on 5 others in there trying to beat Old Fashioned, but not WW! Right idea, just one bomb short! I couldn't have found that freakin horse had I been in the saddle!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Win Willy's dam was a solid D Wayne Lukas sprinter who once ran 2nd to Xtra Heat in a stake.

Nice win today coming from 16 lengths back after the opening quarter - and posted that nice win in good time.

However, there is some sadness to this story.

If anyone's not familar with his trainer ... he's 142-for-437 (32.5% wins) at Canterbury Park over the last two years. By comparison - the mystical Jamie Ness is just 97-for-389 (24.9% wins) at Canterbury Park over the last two years.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Win Willy's dam was a solid D Wayne Lukas sprinter who once ran 2nd to Xtra Heat in a stake.

Nice win today coming from 16 lengths back after the opening quarter - and posted that nice win in good time.

However, there is some sadness to this story.

If anyone's not familar with his trainer ... he's 142-for-437 (32.5% wins) at Canterbury Park over the last two years. By comparison - the mystical Jamie Ness is just 97-for-389 (24.9% wins) at Canterbury Park over the last two years.

I am sure you have see how Ness's horse seemingly almost stop at the quarter pole now, it is amazing what happens when you can't rely on steriods and other insaneness and you actually have to train a little

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Ah, Scav ...

I hate breaking the news to you .... but Ness is 43-for-110 (39% wins) and $2.58 ROI with all dirt horses in 2009.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Ah, Scav ...

I hate breaking the news to you .... but Ness is 43-for-110 (39% wins) and $2.58 ROI with all dirt horses in 2009.

2009? Are you sure? Maybe my perception was way off, but I have seen some of his horses at Tampa run absolutely horrible.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He's 47-for-146 (32.2% wins) and a $2.18 ROI with all starters at Tampa this meet.

He was 2-for-48 last October - and struggled for a short time before coming to Tampa.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's 47-for-146 (32.2% wins) and a $2.18 ROI with all starters at Tampa this meet.

He was 2-for-48 last October - and struggled for a short time before coming to Tampa.

This is why I say things like this for you to confirm or deny.

Thank you for not letting me sound like an idiot when I go on a rampage at the OTB

[Sightseek]

Didn't see it coming, but it was pretty exciting to see him make up soooo much ground.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm sorry Old Fashioned, though he did run well today, was exposed this early. He was never getting 1 1/4 in this year's likely speed laden Derby. Unfortunately, everyone knows this now.

At least two pretenders, Freisan Fire and Pioneer of Nothing, continue to fool people.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm sorry Old Fashioned, though he did run well today, was exposed this early. He was never getting 1 1/4 in this year's likely speed laden Derby. Unfortunately, everyone knows this now.

At least two pretenders, Freisan Fire and Pioneer of Nothing, continue to fool people.

I think Pioneer of the Nile is a joke but I don't know how Friesan Fire is a pretender. Maybe he's Pyro II? At least he can run a fast race.

I know he got a perfect trip pace-wise and seems to have found a way to avoid any adversity at every turn, but I thought he ran well today.

Not as well as Rachel Alexandra though.

NT

[ArlJim78]

i'm pretty sure that Pioneer of Nothing won't be able to get past the SA derby without being fully exposed.

[blackthroatedwind]

Freisan Fire's speed, if nothing else, will be his undoing down the road. It's entirely possible that one day he may not get an absolutely perfect trip.

He's OK, though, and better than I have given him credit for being.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Freisan Fire's speed, if nothing else, will be his undoing down the road. It's entirely possible that one day he may not get an absolutely perfect trip.

He's OK, though, and better than I have given him credit for being.

He's interesting in that yeah, he's got good speed, but he's always got a hold of down the backside. He looks like a very rateable push buttoned horse. If they go fast early on in his upcoming races, I see no reason why he won't be able to sit again, though just a bit further back.

In his two previous races he ran the same way as today. Jock has a hold of him as he sits right near the pace. It was a little peculiar that he would be sitting full of run and then run evenly or not very impressively in the stretch, until today.

My theory being he wasn't that fit and was being raced into shape.

Who really knows what he's been beating, but I think he's got a perfect racing style and will be hard to beat in Ky.

Does anyone know if he's going to run another prep race before the derby?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

My theory being he wasn't that fit and was being raced into shape.

Even though he's run much better with each of his four races this year - He's still slower than Old Fashioned - and Old Fashioned had just one work for this race today and hasn't had the Cowboy hat guy tighten the screws yet.

Hard Spun went into the Derby off of a five week layoff - since FF is so heavily raced this year - I think he might go into the race off of a six week layoff. Probably will run in the Blue Grass if he chooses one final prep.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Freisan Fire's speed, if nothing else, will be his undoing down the road. It's entirely possible that one day he may not get an absolutely perfect trip.

He's OK, though, and better than I have given him credit for being.

I liked what I saw today. I had "all" in the pick 4 because the previous races ended up going my way so obviously I was against him but he has improved in every race, as the races get longer and experience. He's a hell of a lot better than I've given him credit for, I had discounted the NY 2YO races so much thanks to the poor performances of Break Water Edison, Hello Broadway, and Vineyard Haven, and figured his FG races were perfect-trip mirages against much lesser (kind of like Pyro last year). I think we have forgotten with so many recent Derby winners being so lightly raced (and undefeated, for that matter) that the old school way was to have a horse built for distance that improves with every start. His stablemate probably has more talent but has less of a chance to get the distance due to pedigree and running style, which seems pretty one-dimensional, he dragged the jock to the lead today into a pretty ridiculous pace. FF at least has shown he can sit off a few lengths and put in a run when called on.

The best horse of this generation isn't even nominated for the Triple Crown yet (of course he probably will be soon). Other than him, FF might be the 2nd most likely winner of the Derby at this point.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm sorry Old Fashioned, though he did run well today, was exposed this early. He was never getting 1 1/4 in this year's likely speed laden Derby. Unfortunately, everyone knows this now.

At least two pretenders, Freisan Fire and Pioneer of Nothing, continue to fool people.

I've liked FF awhile now and think he's been babied along this year so far.

He seems to me to be a pretty nice 3yo at this point, and I think he's just going to keep getting better for the time being.

That being said, who is it you like? I haven't seen you say anything positive about any of these three year olds yet.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

That being said, who is it you like? I haven't seen you say anything positive about any of these three year olds yet.

I love stuff like this.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I love stuff like this.

I'm glad you do!

However, it wasn't meant as a criticism in any way. I am really just curious as to who you like in this crop.

Believe me, I'm just as critical as you are when it comes to horse quality.