Derby/Oaks Future Wager Pool 2

[Linny]

Originally Posted by philcski

Actually, i thought about this for a while last night and whomever did it is really smart. If the rules apply like they could, I.E. you scratch into the post time favorite, you are getting the raceday Derby favorite at a ridiculously high price. I'd check into it to verify that's the case though.

Dunkirk is currently 5-1. LOL

I imagine that the "favorite" you'd scratch into is the favorite at the close of that wager, not the post time fave in the Derby.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Linny

I imagine that the "favorite" you'd scratch into is the favorite at the close of that wager, not the post time fave in the Derby.

Will you scratch into anything? All the horses listed will not get into the derby. If you pick a horse that does not make it you don't get a refund. Wouldn't a scratched runner just be another horse that does not make the derby? I could be wrong but I doubt there will be scratch substitutions.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by 3kings

Will you scratch into anything? All the horses listed will not get into the derby. If you pick a horse that does not make it you don't get a refund. Wouldn't a scratched runner just be another horse that does not make the derby? I could be wrong but I doubt there will be scratch substitutions.

But in this case, the horse scratched before the pool was even open for betting. The bet should never have been accepted.

I think Linny is most likely correct--the bettor will probably get the favorite at the time the pool closes. But what happens if the favorite happens to be the other horse in the exacta? Go to next favorite?

--Dunbar

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

But in this case, the horse scratched before the pool was even open for betting. The bet should never have been accepted.

I think Linny is most likely correct--the bettor will probably get the favorite at the time the pool closes. But what happens if the favorite happens to be the other horse in the exacta? Go to next favorite?

--Dunbar

I see your point, but my guess is refund and no substitution.

[justindew]

Here's what happened:

Some simulcast outlet somewhere accepted exacta bets early, before the pools opened. Some of these bets were on Big Drama, and some were in $1 increments, which is not allowed because it is a $2 minimum bet.

CD is trying to determine where the bets came from and get them out of the system.

[justindew]

Also, it seems the "system" is allowing $1 base bets, which was not the intention. It was supposed to be a $2 minimum.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by justindew

Also, it seems the "system" is allowing $1 base bets, which was not the intention. It was supposed to be a $2 minimum.

What's the expected handle on the future-exactas and what's your guess?

I'd like to see $250k.

[Dunbar]

TheGreek has put its fixed odds futures back up. Again, there are just 23 entries, corresponding exactly to the horses in KDFW Pool 2. Here are the odds at TheGreek both before and after yesterday's preps:

Bears Rocket 45.5 80.5
Beethoven 35.5 25.5
Big Drama 0 0
Chocolate Candy 40.5 32.5
Desert Party 14.15 16.15
Dunkirk 13 10.15
Flying Pegasus 35.5 60.5
Friesan Fire 18.15 10.15
General Quarters 30.5 60.5
Giant Oak 25.5 52.5
Hello Broadway 25.5 40.5
I Want Revenge 12 8.25
Imperial Council 25.5 25.5
Old Fashioned 8.45 10.15
Papa Clem 40.5 40.5
Patena 25.5 40.5
Pioneer of the Nile 13.25 14.15
Quality Road 18.15 14.15
Silver City 60.5 85.5
Take the Points 60.5 80.5
The Pamplemousse 20.5 14.25
Theregoesjojo 30.5 30.5
West Side Bernie 40.5 30.5
Any Other Horse 4.85 3.45

The top horses that didn't run yesterday (Dunkirk, I Want Revenge, Pamplemousse, Quality Road) have all had their odds come down substantially.

This odds set at TheGreek has a "takeout" of 15.7% compared to the 9.7% "takeout" of the earlier odds.

The Pamplemousse is 14-1 at TheGreek, but just 8-1 currently in the KDFW. Dunkirk is 10-1 at TheGreek but just 6-1 now in the KDFW. Conversely, I Want Revenge is 8.25-1 at TheGreek but is now 10-1 in the KDFW. All Others is 3.45-1 at TheGreek, but is 6-1 in the KDFW.

--Dunbar

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Dabbled with a few exacta boxes....2-21 / 6-20 / 12-22 / 13-24 / 14-11/15
went with the 13 & 20 in the Derby futues and the 10 in the Oaks. What the heck!

[herkhorse]

I tried to do an all others with all others exacta box and they wouldn't let me.

[DJARUM]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I tried to do an all others with all others exacta box and they wouldn't let me.

From what I understand you can only use it once.