First 2009 March Madness thread

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Thursday update.
LOCKS
ACC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona St, Cal
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 37 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 8 spots open.

Changes Today:
* Miami loses to VT, out of the running. NIT bound.
* Providence loses to Louisville, out of the running. NIT bound.
* Northwestern loses to Minnesota, out of the running. NIT bound.

ACC:
Maryland- As usual, they found a way to lose a game that they had to have, this time to UVA on Saturday. Now 7-9 in the ACC which means they have to win a few in the ACC Tournament to feel safe. OUT
Virginia Tech- 18-13 overall, 8-9 in the ACC, 2-8 against the RPI top 50, and 6-11 against the RPI top 100 after the Miami win. That's still a tough sell. OUT, but moving in the right direction.

Big East:

Big Ten:
Wisconsin- Keeping them here but barring a disastrous performance in the first round of the Big Ten tournament they should be fine, even with a loss. IN
Minnesota- Gets a victory over Northwestern in the first round. I think they are safe now. IN
Michigan- About to beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Penn State- Ugh. I was rooting for them to get back into the Tourney but you CANNOT lose to a team like Iowa at this point of the season. Beat Illinois 2X and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? Not right now... OUT

Big XII:
* Oklahoma State moves into LOCK status because everyone around them keeps collapsing, and they just feel like a tournament team, unlike a lot of these other bums. I don't know for certain if they can afford a loss to Iowa State in the first round but given the way things are right now around them they probably can and still get in. Texas A&M earned it the hard way with a clinching win against Mizzou.

Pac-10:
Arizona- Does a win at home against #105 Stanford get you in? No, but it certainly cures the blues temporarily. Got a tough matchup with Az State in the first round and might need to win that one. OUT, for now.

SEC:
South Carolina- No bad losses but no real good wins either. The 10-6 record in the SEC is extremely hollow, but it's still a precedent- no SEC team has ever missed the tournament with a 10-6 league record that I can ever remember. Should be IN barring a horrific loss to either Georgia or Mississippi State in the SEC quarters.
Florida- They move back into the picture because everyone else sucks. OUT for now but that Washington win is looking better and better. Must beat Arkansas and Auburn, and 24-10 would be tough to ignore.

Mountain West:
* Two of the three teams that were in the picture last Friday will make it and they will work it out in Vegas this week.
UNLV- had a chance to lock it up and in the process, knock out SDSU but didn't get it done. They get a second crack in the quarterfinals of the Mtn West tournament at home- the winner is IN, the loser is OUT.
New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just IN at this point (as in, the last team in) based on tying for the league title, but shouldn't lose to Wyoming in the quarters or there will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this week.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
There are one bid left under the assumption that the Mountain West has a knockout game, none of the ACC under .500 teams are worthy, and UF doesn't make a run in the SEC Tournament. Rhode Island took a loss they really couldn't afford on Saturday against UMass. Right now, I'd give the slot to St. Mary's, because I'm convinced they are worthy with a healthy Patty Mills and they have one shot more to prove he's healthy. Their resume is awfully thin, however, and are my last team in right now.

Friday update, with seed projections.
LOCKS
ACC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona St, Cal
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 38 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 7 spots open.

Changes Today:
* Minnesota moves to lock status as even with a loss in their game right now to MSU they are very likely still in.
* UNLV falls off the board and SDSU replaces them.
* Rhode Island falls out of contention.

ACC:
Maryland- Struggled with NC State but got a win they HAD to have. Beat Wake today and I think they move to the right side. Lose and they're still OUT

Virginia Tech- 18-13 overall, 8-9 in the ACC, 2-8 against the RPI top 50, and 6-11 against the RPI top 100 after the Miami win. That's still a tough sell. OUT, but moving in the right direction. Needs to beat UNC (winning at the moment)

Big East:

Big Ten:
Wisconsin- Keeping them here but barring a disastrous performance against Ohio State today in the Big Ten tournament they should be fine. Their resume doesn't scream success, however. IN
Michigan- Beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Penn State- Beat Illinois 2X, MSU, and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? Not right now... but very close. Another win over Purdue would do it. OUT

Big XII:

Pac-10:
Arizona- Loses to rival ASU and probably keeps them OUT of the first time in 25 years.

SEC:
South Carolina- No bad losses but no real good wins either. The 10-6 record in the SEC is extremely hollow, but it's still a precedent- no SEC team has ever missed the tournament with a 10-6 league record that I can ever remember. Should be IN barring a horrific loss to either Georgia or Mississippi State in the SEC quarters.
Florida- They move back into the picture because everyone else sucks. That Washington win is looking better and better. Took care of Arkansas, next up Auburn, winner probably IN, loser OUT. The 24-10 record would be tough to ignore.
Auburn- Been trying to avoid putting them up here but they keep trying to prove me wrong. Still a ways to go but they also have the 10-6 SEC record and essentially a play-in game with Florida. OUT, for now.

Mountain West:
SDSU- Probably locks up a bid by sweeping 3 games from the Rebels to go with their otherwise OK resume. Beating BYU would be a bonus and assure their bid but I think they're in pretty good shape. IN

New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just OUT at this point. There will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this weekend.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
Rhode Island took a loss they really couldn't afford on Saturday against UMass and finished the job against Duqusne. Temple stays in the picture by routing St Joes. Right now, I'd give the slot to St. Mary's, because I'm convinced they are worthy with a healthy Patty Mills and they have one shot more to prove he's healthy. Their resume is awfully thin, however, and are my last team in right now.

Seeds
1: UNC*, Pitt, UConn, Louisville*
2: Memphis*, Michigan State*, Kansas, Duke
3: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Villanova
4: Washington*, Missouri*, West Virginia, Xavier*
5: Purdue, UCLA, Gonzaga*, Florida State
6: LSU*, Clemson, Arizona State, Marquette
7: Illinois, Utah*, Tennessee, Butler
8: BYU, Texas, Oklahoma State, Cal
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Boston College, Minnesota
10: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan, Siena*
11: South Carolina, Creighton, SDSU, VCU*
12: St. Mary's, Cleveland St*, Western Kentucky*, Utah St*
13: Florida(Auburn), UNI*, American*, North Dakota St*
14: Buffalo/MAC*, SFA/Southland*, Binghamton/AE*, Radford*
15: Robert Morris*, Portland St*, Cornell*, East Tenn St*
16: Chattanooga*, Big West*, Morehead St*, SWAC*, MEAC*