First 2009 March Madness thread

ateamstupid · #1 03-11-2009, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

agreed, he's gotta come out and light it up, look to score every play.

i think Gonzaga will be very disappointed with their seed. on a blind comparison their resume isn't that strong. 4 of their top 5 wins are against St Mary's and Tennessee, they have a not-so-good loss to Portland State, and their RPI/SOS is much worse than previous years. I'm thinking 6-7 range.

Yeah, but the committee gives a lot of strength to how a team finishes the season. Remember when Syracuse was on the wrong side of the bubble, then made that run in the Big East tourney and ended up with a 5-seed? No one's hotter than Gonzaga now and are there 16 teams that'll get a higher seed? Oklahoma, UNC, pitt, uconn, lville, kansas, mizzou, nova, washington, memphis, michigan state, purdue, duke, wake forest are the only ones I can think of for sure that'll be higher seeded. I think they've got a good shot at a 4.

philcski · #2 03-11-2009, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yeah, but the committee gives a lot of strength to how a team finishes the season. Remember when Syracuse was on the wrong side of the bubble, then made that run in the Big East tourney and ended up with a 5-seed? No one's hotter than Gonzaga now and are there 16 teams that'll get a higher seed? Oklahoma, UNC, pitt, uconn, lville, kansas, mizzou, nova, washington, memphis, michigan state, purdue, duke, wake forest are the only ones I can think of for sure that'll be higher seeded. I think they've got a good shot at a 4.

Xavier, Illinois, FSU, Clemson, and possibly UCLA, LSU, Arizona State, and Syracuse (all depending on how they do in their respective tournaments) could argue that. Not saying it's right, because I do think they're in the top 16 teams in America, just knowing how the committee treats mid-majors. For example, in 2002, Gonzaga had a resume worthy of a 3 seed and got a 6 (and got bounced in the first round.)

Plus, their last "real" opponent before St. Mary's in the WCC Championship game (Memphis) took them behind the woodshed at home.

SniperSB23 · #3 03-11-2009, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yeah, but the committee gives a lot of strength to how a team finishes the season. Remember when Syracuse was on the wrong side of the bubble, then made that run in the Big East tourney and ended up with a 5-seed? No one's hotter than Gonzaga now and are there 16 teams that'll get a higher seed? Oklahoma, UNC, pitt, uconn, lville, kansas, mizzou, nova, washington, memphis, michigan state, purdue, duke, wake forest are the only ones I can think of for sure that'll be higher seeded. I think they've got a good shot at a 4.

4-5 is essentially the same thing. My point was more that as a 4-5 they have a much easier route to the Sweet 16 than being a 6-7 so winning was critical. I could see Syracuse, UCLA, and Florida St all having a decent shot of being put up on the 4 line before Gonzaga.

What could be really interesting is if 3 Big East teams wound up a #1 then only one team could be a 4 or a 5 meaning any other teams that fall into that line would have to be bumped up to a 3 or down to a 6. Could get real confusing if Marquette beat Villanova or Syracuse beat Pittsburgh.

ateamstupid · #4 03-11-2009, 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

What could be really interesting is if 3 Big East teams wound up a #1 then only one team could be a 4 or a 5 meaning any other teams that fall into that line would have to be bumped up to a 3 or down to a 6. Could get real confusing if Marquette beat Villanova or Syracuse beat Pittsburgh.

Didn't they change that rule largely because of the Big East and the possibility that it could get 9+ teams into the Tournament?

SniperSB23 · #5 03-11-2009, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Didn't they change that rule largely because of the Big East and the possibility that it could get 9+ teams into the Tournament?

They've always allowed a contingency for 9+ teams but that would be the highest seeded teams that would be allowed to meet in the same region. So you could have a 2-10 or 4-12 or 3-11 second round Big East matchup if they had 9 teams but never a 1-4 or 1-5.

SniperSB23 · #6 03-11-2009, 04:42 PM

Looking more closely does anyone actually think that either of the Ohio teams is going to win the A10 tourney in Atlantic City? I could easily see the final being Rhode Island against the Temple/St Joes winner which would mean one less bid for everyone else. Another interesting twist is that if Florida wins over Arkansas they would play Auburn. A second SEC tourney win by Florida would probably lock things up while Auburn would have the opportunity to beat Florida and then Tennessee and likely earn themselves a bid. If Florida beats Arkansas then loses to Auburn who loses to Tennessee you'd have a situation where the committee could put both in or neither. For the sake of the tournament I hope it is neither but its a tough call.

Cannon Shell · #7 03-11-2009, 04:48 PM

St. Johns scored 10 points in the first half today. Walter Berry just rolled over in his grave.

SniperSB23 · #8 03-11-2009, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

St. Johns scored 10 points in the first half today. Walter Berry just rolled over in his grave.

Well they had to be out partying all night last night to celebrate their first Big East tourney win since 2003.

philcski · #9 03-11-2009, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Looking more closely does anyone actually think that either of the Ohio teams is going to win the A10 tourney in Atlantic City? I could easily see the final being Rhode Island against the Temple/St Joes winner which would mean one less bid for everyone else. Another interesting twist is that if Florida wins over Arkansas they would play Auburn. A second SEC tourney win by Florida would probably lock things up while Auburn would have the opportunity to beat Florida and then Tennessee and likely earn themselves a bid. If Florida beats Arkansas then loses to Auburn who loses to Tennessee you'd have a situation where the committee could put both in or neither. For the sake of the tournament I hope it is neither but its a tough call.

Of course not. This is the A10 we're talking about here. The favorite, if an at--large lock, stiffs it every time to get another team in. See my post above!

Classic examples- St Joes was UNSTOPPABLE in '04. They "found a way" to lose to Xavier in their first round who was just ok that year. GW was 16-0 in the regular season in '06, only really tested once, yet got waxed by an average Temple team in the first round. Last year Xavier was a beast and still found a way to lose in their 2nd game which set up the A10 to get 3 bids when Temple beat St Joe's in the final (the only way they were getting 3 bids.)

horseofcourse · #10 03-11-2009, 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Of course not. This is the A10 we're talking about here. The favorite, if an at--large lock, stiffs it every time to get another team in. See my post above!

Classic examples- St Joes was UNSTOPPABLE in '04. They "found a way" to lose to Xavier in their first round who was just ok that year.

Xavier made the elite 8 in '04 as did St Joe's. Xavier proved they were an excellent team at the end of '04 when they beat St Joes in the A10 tourney...Xavier took out 2 and 3 seeds Texas and Mississippi State and payed a very close game in the regional final against Duke. With what Xavier did in the NCAA tourney in '04 it is hard to argue they didn't just flat out beat St Joe's in the A10 tourney.