100+

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Scav

I am actually curious how many 3 year olds have gone above 100 on the synthetics, I don't think many have, but I could be wrong

Zensational (at 6 furlongs) & Pamplemousse are the only two I believe.

I'm worried about Pamplemousse crossfiring in the derby.

[pick4]

Gulfstream has been at it's current configuration for three years now. I think there is a large enough sample size to come up with legit par figures. Oaklawn, Fair Grounds have been the same for a long time.

As far as the So. Cal tracks I would like to see a larger sample to get a true fig. The Proride surface was installed last summer at Santa Anita so we're working with 3+ months of data of info. I don't think that's enough info.

[pick4]

So far it appears that generation of 3 year olds have more talented horses than last years 3 year olds. Pioneer of The Nile, The Pamplemousse look like they have quality. How they run on dirt is the $64,000 question. East of the Mississippi Old Fashioned, Dunkirk, Quality Road, and a number of others look like they are strong runners with bright futures.

On good result of a down economy at least in terms of lower stud prices is some of these quality horses, who turn out to be strong runners contunue on a race as 4 year olds.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Which is the bigger question? Whether P'MOUSSE n' POTN can run on dirt, or whether the top 2 in the Fountain of Youth can do as well going 2 turns at a different dirt track?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Which is the bigger question? Whether P'MOUSSE n' POTN can run on dirt, or whether the top 2 in the Fountain of Youth can do as well going 2 turns at a different dirt track?

Since I've already decided that POTN is a turf horse and that The Pamplemousse will run well on dirt, the question about the FOY runners stretching out is more important.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by justindew

Since I've already decided that POTN is a turf horse and that The Pamplemousse will run well on dirt, the question about the FOY runners stretching out is more important.

i wonder if the pamplemousse thinks he'll run well on dirt. seriously, you can't know til he tries. til then, it's a mental exercise with no real answer.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i wonder if the pamplemousse thinks he'll run well on dirt. seriously, you can't know til he tries. til then, it's a mental exercise with no real answer.

No, he'll run on dirt.

It is so ordered.

[pick4]

In addition to seeing the top contenders running a handful of races the horses with strong ProRide/ Polytrack/ Cushion Track add another question mark to the mix on Derby Day.

Horses have been successful moving from the So Cal tracks to dirt tracks. Of the two top So Cal contenders I prefer The Pamplemousse. He runs more like a dirt horse as he just goes to the front and runs his race. Now when he's matched up on May 3rd against a few sprinters who have no business running in the Derby yet are because they can will be be comfortable getting dirt kicked in his face while running in a pack of horses? Pioneer of The Nile runs more like a grass horse but his style could be benefitical if the pace of the Derby is insane and the race falls apart.

There are MORE than a few horses who look like they have talent in this crop and hopefully we can enjoy the preps and the banter of who is for real or not up till the Derby. I'll be at the Belmont on Stake Day regardless if a TC is on the line. I just hope Belmont day is not as hot and humid as it was last year.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by justindew

Since I've already decided that POTN is a turf horse and that The Pamplemousse will run well on dirt, the question about the FOY runners stretching out is more important.

You aren't the only one thinking POTN is a turf horse, but so was Barbaro according to most. Not comparing the two, just making an observation about how they are perceived. When it comes down to it, I'd rather have Baffert pulling the strings going to the first Saturday of May than anyone.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by justindew

Since I've already decided that POTN is a turf horse....

On what basis? Sire Empire Maker, dirt horse. Half-brother to Forefathers, twice a dirt winner, 2nd Jerome H, 3rd Swale S. Dam Star of Goshen, won the La Troienne on Churchill dirt, half-sister to Powis Castle, winner of the Malibu S and Vernon O Underwood, on So Cal dirt, before the changeover. Damsire Lord at War won the Santa Anita H, etc. all on real dirt; damsire of Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem. Yes, some of the relatives have also run well on turf, but there is no reason to think a horse bred like this will be 'a turf horse.'

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

On what basis? Sire Empire Maker, dirt horse. Half-brother to Forefathers, twice a dirt winner, 2nd Jerome H, 3rd Swale S. Dam Star of Goshen, won the La Troienne on Churchill dirt, half-sister to Powis Castle, winner of the Malibu S and Vernon O Underwood, on So Cal dirt, before the changeover. Damsire Lord at War won the Santa Anita H, etc. all on real dirt; damsire of Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem. Yes, some of the relatives have also run well on turf, but there is no reason to think a horse bred like this will be 'a turf horse.'

Based on things that have nothing to do with his pedigree.

NT

[pick4]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Which is the bigger question? Whether P'MOUSSE n' POTN can run on dirt, or whether the top 2 in the Fountain of Youth can do as well going 2 turns at a different dirt track?

Good question but one that I'm not smart enough to answer.
Baffert has shipped east in the past but a number of people have mentioned that since the horse is doing so well out west they'll stay out west until the first Saturday in May. I doubt Canani ships The Pamplemouse until late April.

Jim Jerkens is said to be leaning towards the Wood but might run in the FLA Derby instead. As long as he can settle in and not run rank and finish well I think Quality Road will be able to run two turns. Jojo looks like a good closing one turn horse. That might be what he is best at. I'm sure he'll stretch out in the next six weeks and we'll see if he can finish the same going two turns as we does going one turn.

So far the Derby picture is unclear but it looks like there are a few horses who have ability. The next six weekends should be very interesting and should lead into a great Triple Crown trio of races. The Gotham which I'd like to make the trip down to The Big A looks like it might be a productive race. Mr. Fantasy is 2 for 2 and stretches out for the first time. He destroyed two fields of NY breds but Mr.Fantasy is not bred like a true NY bred. Imperial Council is nominated for the Gotham and he could be a top runner.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by pick4

So far the Derby picture is unclear but it looks like there are a few horses who have ability.

There are more than a few.

[jpops757]

With the imprssive MSW and 1st level alowance winners, could we have a problem getting the 20 best in the gate at CD. Stakes money could be even more important as far as excluding a true contender other than just a hopeful runner?