Beyer pens post script after sit-down with Wolfson

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

From an earlier post of mine in a different thread ...

From a decade long span between 1996 through 2005 - Wolfson has year in and year out been very consistant. His win % was between 15-to-23% - and his yearly ROI had never once risen as high as $1.80 in any of those 10 years.

Basically, the guy was just your solid 20% trainer who placed horses in spots they could win - but who's horses typically were overbet.

From '96 to '05 he was 374-for-1,869 (20% wins) $1.54 ROI.

Now, the same consistant guy who shows a 23% loss on the betting dollar over an entire decade - and never once raises his ROI as high as $1.80 for 10 straight years does the following....

2006: 44-for-168 (26% wins) $2.89 ROI
2007: 52-for-191 (27% wins) $2.15 ROI
2008: 62-for-204 (30% wins) $1.98 ROI
2009: 4-for-23 (17% wins) $2.69 ROI

From '06 to '09 he is 162-for-586 (27% wins) $2.32 ROI

A solid seven percent spike in win percentage and an otherwordly $0.78 spike in ROI!!

You ought not be a genius to see that something happened precisely between 2005 and 2006 that shifted Marty Wolfson from a solid dependable trainer into an absolute super trainer who's stable yields huge win percentages and spectacular profits from a betting standpoint.

He's obviously one of the trainers out there who has a real edge right now. Is it something illegal? Who knows. Is it something detectable? .. who knows. It would be extremely irresponsible to pretend that he doesn't.

drugs it might be very simple , isn't he geting better horses now?

i'm sure if you did a stat check on d wayne he would probably show great stats in the mid 90's and then a big fall off during the last 5 yrs - becuase the good horses got taken away from him

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by gales0678

i'm sure if you did a stat check on d wayne he would probably show great stats in the mid 90's and then a big fall off during the last 5 yrs - becuase the good horses got taken away from him

D. Wayne Lukas from '96 through '01 ....

810-for-4,661 (17% wins) $1.37 ROI


D. Wayne Lukas from '07 to present ...

104-for-914 (11% wins) $1.45 ROI


I would agree that the hit with the win percentage reflects a monumental dropoff in quality of stock.

I would also say that his 8 point rise in ROI reflects that he's not as overbet as he was because his reputation as a trainer isn't what it was at the time.

[gales0678]

the ROI % changed by 6% , and it could easily have fallen if you take out the 1 bomb he put over at toga last summer (i think it was)

His win % in the time you cover dropped a whopping 35%

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by gales0678

the ROI % changed by 6% , and it could easily have fallen if you take out the 1 bomb he put over at toga last summer (i think it was)

His win % in the time you cover dropped a whopping 35%

LOL. Ok, takeout his one 49/1 winner from one sample ... but leave in his MANY wins with bombs like Spain (56/1) Cat Thief, Charismatic, etc. etc. etc. from the other sample. Yeah, makes a lot of sense.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

LOL. Ok, takeout his one 49/1 winner from one sample ... but leave in his MANY wins with bombs like Spain (56/1) Cat Thief, Charismatic, etc. etc. etc. from the other sample. Yeah, makes a lot of sense.

How many 50/1 madiens did he put over from '96 to '01 - come on drugs that point being his madiens were always heavily bet , he won with bombs in big stakes races

but again explain the 35% drop off in acutal win % , was he a magician in the mid 90's or did he simply just have better stock back then??

where beyer's article about him to explain these big % movements

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by gales0678

How many 50/1 madiens did he put over from '96 to '01 - come on drugs that point being his madiens were always heavily bet , he won with bombs in big stakes races

you're being so stupid I'm almost getting a headache.

In that '07-to- present sample - Lukas is 3-for-77 with first time starters and his ROI is $1.70 - he's a 15% loser (which is the win pool takeout) even with the one 49/1 shot winner included.

And why in the name of God would anyone mention Lukas' name in this thread? No one with an IQ above 50 has ever accused him of being a trainer with an edge.

If you want to think that guys ROI's improve sharply because they're getting better stock - your stupidity is your problem.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

you're being so stupid I'm almost getting a headache.

In that '07-to- present sample - Lukas is 3-for-77 with first time starters and his ROI is $1.70 - he's a 15% loser (which is the win pool takeout) even with the one 49/1 shot winner included.

And why in the name of God would anyone mention Lukas' name in this thread? No one with an IQ above 50 has ever accused him of being a trainer with an edge.

If you want to think that guys ROI's improve sharply because they're getting better stock - your stupidity is your problem.

1 more for u drugs

how bout runnig Dutrow's %'s for this GP meet run the win % and roi

then run a second set of numbers and and take out this one's for phil from the numbers

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by gales0678

the ROI % changed by 6% , and it could easily have fallen if you take out the 1 bomb he put over at toga last summer (i think it was)

His win % in the time you cover dropped a whopping 35%

Redboard alert....it was Be Smart and I had her!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Redboard alert....it was Be Smart and I had her!

I need a valium.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I need a valium.

kissy