2/16 (OP): Southwest S. (Gr. III)

[Travis Stone]

I'm not sure what people were expecting today, perhaps he was hyped a bit too much. But this was an solid effort to kick-start his 3-year-old season. He chased a face pace, finished well and is primed to move forward.

I don't think we were looking for an effort that would win a 10 furlong race in May on a February afternoon.

[Danzig]

i agree it was a solid effort. he did what he was expected/supposed to do.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm not sure what people were expecting today, perhaps he was hyped a bit too much. But this was an solid effort to kick-start his 3-year-old season. He chased a face pace, finished well and is primed to move forward.

I don't think we were looking for an effort that would win a 10 furlong race in May on a February afternoon.

I'd be interested to know what horse out there everyone thinks is going to take him down in the Arkansas Derby in a fairly run race, because at this point I haven't seen anything all that impressive. I like Imperial Council very much, but the Derby is coming up much too soon. Fresian Fire is solid and Jones is holding a strong hand going into the Derby, but I don't think he is as good as Old Fashioned. There is certainly no reason to think Pioneerof the Nile won't take to the dirt, so he could challenge him, but it's doubtful he'll leave CA prior to the Derby.

The FOY is interesting if all of the probables make it into the field, but I think like Silver City, you'll have horses come out of that race that will be pointed to the sprint stakes in later in the season.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I'd be interested to know what horse out there everyone thinks is going to take him down in the Arkansas Derby in a fairly run race, because at this point I haven't seen anything all that impressive. I like Imperial Council very much, but the Derby is coming up much too soon. Fresian Fire is solid and Jones is holding a strong hand going into the Derby, but I don't think he is as good as Old Fashioned. There is certainly no reason to think Pioneerof the Nile won't take to the dirt, so he could challenge him, but it's doubtful he'll leave CA prior to the Derby.

The FOY is interesting if all of the probables make it into the field, but I think like Silver City, you'll have horses come out of that race that will be pointed to the sprint stakes in later in the season.

you never know til they try it.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Danzig

you never know til they try it.

My post wasn't counting him out. The horse is bred for the big one.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

My post wasn't counting him out. The horse is bred for the big one.

which makes it so sad that he's stuck out west. there's just no way of telling how he really stacks up. now, if the derby were run in cali, i'd play him to win the thing. but i don't trust the racing out there to tell you who really can do what. it's why square eddie was coming to oaklawn-not all horses like it out there. you have to find where they fit.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I'd be interested to know what horse out there everyone thinks is going to take him down in the Arkansas Derby in a fairly run race, because at this point I haven't seen anything all that impressive. I like Imperial Council very much, but the Derby is coming up much too soon. Fresian Fire is solid and Jones is holding a strong hand going into the Derby, but I don't think he is as good as Old Fashioned. There is certainly no reason to think Pioneerof the Nile won't take to the dirt, so he could challenge him, but it's doubtful he'll leave CA prior to the Derby.

The FOY is interesting if all of the probables make it into the field, but I think like Silver City, you'll have horses come out of that race that will be pointed to the sprint stakes in later in the season.

I disagree with your accessment about Pioneer of The Nile not taking to a true dirt race course. He's only run on turf, Poly @ Keeneland, Pro Ride @ Santa and Cushion Track @ Hollywood. While it's likely Baffert will take the California road to the Derby, he has shipped horses east to prep in the past. It would not surprise me if he runs Pioneer in the Wood Memorial. Baffert is not a big fan of these synthetic tracks and might want to find out if he has a dirt horse prior to the Derby.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pick4

I disagree with your accessment about Pioneer of The Nile not taking to a true dirt race course. He's only run on turf, Poly @ Keeneland, Pro Ride @ Santa and Cushion Track @ Hollywood. While it's likely Baffert will take the California road to the Derby, he has shipped horses east to prep in the past. It would not surprise me if he runs Pioneer in the Wood Memorial. Baffert is not a big fan of these synthetic tracks and might want to find out if he has a dirt horse prior to the Derby.

Really? You think Baffert is anxious to expose Pioneerof the Nile for the ordinary turf horse he is by running him on dirt before the Derby when he can be the likely favorite to win the $750,000 Gr. I Santa Anita Derby? I'd think this one through again.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Really? You think Baffert is anxious to expose Pioneerof the Nile for the ordinary turf horse he is by running him on dirt before the Derby when he can be the likely favorite to win the $750,000 Gr. I Santa Anita Derby? I'd think this one through again.

That's a good point. But don't you think he'd like to know if he has a dirt horse? Baffert loves the attention of the Derby spotlight but he usually only goes to the race if he thinks he has a legit chance.

I find it ironic that the owner of Pioneer of The Nile got into a spat with Joe Harper at DelMar and removed all his horses from So Cal. Now he has a Derby contender who is proven on So Cal synthetic tracks and is a huge question mark when it comes to running ondirt.

[Bobby Fischer]

those horses ALL run good out west unless something really pressures them in a race.
Baffert is going Cali all the way to kentucky

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pick4

That's a good point. But don't you think he'd like to know if he has a dirt horse? Baffert loves the attention of the Derby spotlight but he usually only goes to the race if he thinks he has a legit chance.

I find it ironic that the owner of Pioneer of The Nile got into a spat with Joe Harper at DelMar and removed all his horses from So Cal. Now he has a Derby contender who is proven on So Cal synthetic tracks and is a huge question mark when it comes to running on dirt.

I'd imagine he knows already what he has and he'll maximize the opportunities for him. (Or try to considering the variable of the mercurial ownership involved.)

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I'd imagine he knows already what he has and he'll maximize the opportunities for him. (Or try to considering the variable of the mercurial ownership involved.)

You're probably correct in your accessment of Pioneer of The Nile.
I don't like his chances when he moves to Churchill Downs dirt. He could clunk up for a board placing but I think that's a best case scenario. If he wins the Kentucky Derby I'll be ripping tickets.

How do you think he'll run on CD dirt?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by pick4

That's a good point. But don't you think he'd like to know if he has a dirt horse? Baffert loves the attention of the Derby spotlight but he usually only goes to the race if he thinks he has a legit chance.

I find it ironic that the owner of Pioneer of The Nile got into a spat with Joe Harper at DelMar and removed all his horses from So Cal. Now he has a Derby contender who is proven on So Cal synthetic tracks and is a huge question mark when it comes to running ondirt.

No. Baffert doesn't believe in that stuff about finding out first. He knows that one of two things will happen with Pioneer. Either he'll like dirt or he won't. If he will, then he'll run his race in the Derby whether they race him on dirt prior to that race or not. And if he won't, you'd just be throwing away a shot at a $750k SA Derby that he might go favored in.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Really? You think Baffert is anxious to expose Pioneerof the Nile for the ordinary turf horse he is by running him on dirt before the Derby when he can be the likely favorite to win the $750,000 Gr. I Santa Anita Derby? I'd think this one through again.

didn't baffert say he would wait til the ky derby to find out if pioneer can handle the surface? i also don't see him leaving a good thing, for a possibly not so good thing. the $$ is in cali, and seemingly ripe for the picking by his horse. besides, if he ships to churchill and loses, everyone will excuse it, and back to cali/syns he'll go. no harm, no foul.