2/16 (OP): Southwest S. (Gr. III)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Old Fashioned. 45.9 and finished in a 1:37 and change.

Horrible race.

I think it would have been pretty unrealistic to ask for a performance any better than that.

I realize he is the clear cut early Derby Future book favorite ... but more so because of the faults of other prospects than anything else.

Silver City is a very nice sprinter - he got the lead without a great deal of pressure over a track that was kind to inside speed today - and he was no match.

If you look at Old Fashioned's Remsen win .. he was crawling on an uncontested early lead through absurdly slow early fractions. He ran the fastest final 3/8ths in the Remsen since Alydar.. so he made the best of the soft trip and pace and can't be knocked too much.

It was certainly a better performance than Hard Spun's 3yo debut... and this is a Larry Jones horse ... he's a mystic and this horse will almost certainly go forward and get better.

[packerbacker7964]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think it would have been pretty unrealistic to ask for a performance any better than that.

I realize he is the clear cut early Derby Future book favorite ... but more so because of the faults of other prospects than anything else.

Silver City is a very nice sprinter - he got the lead without a great deal of pressure over a track that was kind to inside speed today - and he was no match.

If you look at Old Fashioned's Remsen win .. he was crawling on an uncontested early lead through absurdly slow early fractions. He ran the fastest final 3/8ths in the Remsen since Alydar.. so he made the best of the soft trip and pace and can't be knocked too much.

It was certainly a better performance than Hard Spun's 3yo debut... and this is a Larry Jones horse ... he's a mystic and this horse will almost certainly go forward and get better.

Great post but what did you do with Drugs because he's never posted something that was this good.

[Kasept]

0:22.4 -- 0:22.2
0:45.4 -- 0:45.4
1:11.1 -- 1:11.0
1:37.2 -- 1:37.2

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Kasept

0:22.4 -- 0:22.2
0:45.4 -- 0:45.4
1:11.1 -- 1:11.0
1:37.2 -- 1:37.2

Freaky!

Originally Posted by Kasept

0:22.4 -- 0:22.2
0:45.4 -- 0:45.4
1:11.1 -- 1:11.0
1:37.2 -- 1:37.2

Yes that's nice and whatnot..

at the time Smarty's Southwest was panned and it was miles better than this race in overall quality. You had 4 out of 9 horses in that race that showed ability.

The race today was a snoozefest match race between unbridled song's seeds.

I'll hold off on annointing this horse the next Smarty Jones.

[Travis Stone]

I'm not sure what people were expecting today, perhaps he was hyped a bit too much. But this was an solid effort to kick-start his 3-year-old season. He chased a face pace, finished well and is primed to move forward.

I don't think we were looking for an effort that would win a 10 furlong race in May on a February afternoon.

[Danzig]

i agree it was a solid effort. he did what he was expected/supposed to do.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm not sure what people were expecting today, perhaps he was hyped a bit too much. But this was an solid effort to kick-start his 3-year-old season. He chased a face pace, finished well and is primed to move forward.

I don't think we were looking for an effort that would win a 10 furlong race in May on a February afternoon.

I'd be interested to know what horse out there everyone thinks is going to take him down in the Arkansas Derby in a fairly run race, because at this point I haven't seen anything all that impressive. I like Imperial Council very much, but the Derby is coming up much too soon. Fresian Fire is solid and Jones is holding a strong hand going into the Derby, but I don't think he is as good as Old Fashioned. There is certainly no reason to think Pioneerof the Nile won't take to the dirt, so he could challenge him, but it's doubtful he'll leave CA prior to the Derby.

The FOY is interesting if all of the probables make it into the field, but I think like Silver City, you'll have horses come out of that race that will be pointed to the sprint stakes in later in the season.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I'd be interested to know what horse out there everyone thinks is going to take him down in the Arkansas Derby in a fairly run race, because at this point I haven't seen anything all that impressive. I like Imperial Council very much, but the Derby is coming up much too soon. Fresian Fire is solid and Jones is holding a strong hand going into the Derby, but I don't think he is as good as Old Fashioned. There is certainly no reason to think Pioneerof the Nile won't take to the dirt, so he could challenge him, but it's doubtful he'll leave CA prior to the Derby.

The FOY is interesting if all of the probables make it into the field, but I think like Silver City, you'll have horses come out of that race that will be pointed to the sprint stakes in later in the season.

you never know til they try it.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I'd be interested to know what horse out there everyone thinks is going to take him down in the Arkansas Derby in a fairly run race, because at this point I haven't seen anything all that impressive. I like Imperial Council very much, but the Derby is coming up much too soon. Fresian Fire is solid and Jones is holding a strong hand going into the Derby, but I don't think he is as good as Old Fashioned. There is certainly no reason to think Pioneerof the Nile won't take to the dirt, so he could challenge him, but it's doubtful he'll leave CA prior to the Derby.

The FOY is interesting if all of the probables make it into the field, but I think like Silver City, you'll have horses come out of that race that will be pointed to the sprint stakes in later in the season.

I disagree with your accessment about Pioneer of The Nile not taking to a true dirt race course. He's only run on turf, Poly @ Keeneland, Pro Ride @ Santa and Cushion Track @ Hollywood. While it's likely Baffert will take the California road to the Derby, he has shipped horses east to prep in the past. It would not surprise me if he runs Pioneer in the Wood Memorial. Baffert is not a big fan of these synthetic tracks and might want to find out if he has a dirt horse prior to the Derby.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Yes that's nice and whatnot.. at the time Smarty's Southwest was panned and it was miles better than this race in overall quality. You had 4 out of 9 horses in that race that showed ability.

The race today was a snoozefest match race between unbridled song's seeds. I'll hold off on annointing this horse the next Smarty Jones.

Not trying to annoint him a new Smarty Jones. Pointing out that there oddities about the splits at Oaklawn. It ALWAYS looks like OP 3yo's come home slow and invariably they're on a par with everyone else later. I was a naysayer on Oaklawn performances for a long time and eventually acknowledged that the Smarty Jones and Lawyer Ron and Afleet Alex and Flower Alley and even Borrego were coming home as fast.. or faster.. than any other sophomore.

Don't get caught up in the splits at Oaklawn is my only suggestion. (It's the Ozarks Pants... Eventually you'll be squeeling like a pig.)

[Scav]

Isn't Silver City the perfect example a horse that if they didn't rush, and kept him at 8f and shorter, you would have a potential freak. He has the feeling of a horse that will get ruined by the Triple Crown trail.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Not trying to annoint him a new Smarty Jones. Pointing out that there oddities about the splits at Oaklawn. It ALWAYS looks like OP 3yo's come home slowand invariably they're on a par with everyone else later. I was a naysayer on Oaklawn performances for a long time and eventually acknowledged that the Smarty Jones and Lawyer Ron and Afleet Alex and Flower Alley and even Borrego were coming home as fast.. or faster.. than any other sophomore.

Don't get caught up in the splits at Oaklawn is my only suggestion. (It's the Ozarks Pants... Eventually you'll be squeeling like a pig.)

Ah, Steve.

You have this one backwards.

Oaklawn Park - especially at 9fs - it is the home of the unexplainably fast come home time.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Ah, Steve.

You have this one backwards.

Oaklawn Park - especially at 9fs - it is the home of the unexplainably fast come home time.

Didn't the white Randy Moss figure out that the stretch at Oaklawn is uphill?

Originally Posted by Kasept

Not trying to annoint him a new Smarty Jones. Pointing out that there oddities about the splits at Oaklawn. It ALWAYS looks like OP 3yo's come home slow and invariably they're on a par with everyone else later. I was a naysayer on Oaklawn performances for a long time and eventually acknowledged that the Smarty Jones and Lawyer Ron and Afleet Alex and Flower Alley and even Borrego were coming home as fast.. or faster.. than any other sophomore.

Don't get caught up in the splits at Oaklawn is my only suggestion. (It's the Ozarks Pants... Eventually you'll be squeeling like a pig.)

Old Fashioned = Scotty Thurman

Smarty Jones = Corliss Williamson

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Old Fashioned = Scotty Thurman

Smarty Jones = Corliss Williamson

Smarty Jones = Sidney Moncrief

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Yes that's nice and whatnot..

at the time Smarty's Southwest was panned and it was miles better than this race in overall quality. You had 4 out of 9 horses in that race that showed ability.

The race today was a snoozefest match race between unbridled song's seeds.

I'll hold off on annointing this horse the next Smarty Jones.

The field that Smarty Jones beat in the Southwest was:

Two Down Automatic
Pro Prado
Wildcat Shoes
Pyramid Performer
Archie B
Proper Prado
Number Juan
Got the Goods

Granted some might have been farther along at the time of the race, but they weren't any good going forward. However, I too will hold off on anointing him the next Smarty Jones.

NT

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The field that Smarty Jones beat in the Southwest was:

Two Down Automatic
Pro Prado
Wildcat Shoes
Pyramid Performer
Archie B
Proper Prado
Number Juan
Got the Goods

Granted some might have been farther along at the time of the race, but they weren't any good going forward. However, I too will hold off on anointing him the next Smarty Jones.

NT

i think it's possible some were thinking of the ark derby field, not the southwest. that was certainly a better field than what you just listed!

[Bobby Fischer]

Old Fashioned and Flat Out ran the two best races. Old Fashioned was probably best.

It was hard to tell much of anything new from Old Fashioned - he didn't have to do much today - just wear down 1 decent horse, and the time wasn't jaw dropping, but he got the job done up on a good pace and was never in doubt. "Solid"

also have to love Larry Jones , he has a REALLY cool hat, and all the stuff he went through with Eight Belles.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Yes that's nice and whatnot..

at the time Smarty's Southwest was panned and it was miles better than this race in overall quality. You had 4 out of 9 horses in that race that showed ability.

The race today was a snoozefest match race between unbridled song's seeds.

I'll hold off on annointing this horse the next Smarty Jones.

That was clearly his worst career race, and he still won. Bad enough that wiseguys let him go off at 7/2 in the Rebel with Purge favored. As much as I think Old Fashioned is the correct current Derby favorite, this might have been his best career race.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I've seen horses come home in 11 and change in the final 1/8th there going 9fs ... and I'm talking about horses lesser than Afleet Alex and Curlin.

Hell, Rockamundo, the biggest bum to ever win a major Derby prep, he came home in like 12.50 for his final furlong in the Ark Derby after pressing a 45 and change pace.

Note in Davidowitz' column about the downhill not affecting races run at a mile.

Incidentally, I remember that column specifically because it made me decide that Peace Rules could be forgiven for the extremely slow final 3F's in the Blue Grass (and even though he didn't win the Derby, he ran extremely well) and Sir Cherokee being an easy toss.