Early Weekend Beyers

[Kasept]

If you have a chance, listen to Darryl Vienna and Bobby Frankel from Monday night's "At the Races" about the way the track is playing, or rather how the jocks are riding it. They both said that riders are using the "Keeneland" method where no one goes fast early and they all try to rally late. This synthetic phenomenon skews the speed figures.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Kasept

If you have a chance, listen to Darryl Vienna and Bobby Frankel from Monday night's "At the Races" about the way the track is playing, or rather how the jocks are riding it. They both said that riders are using the "Keeneland" method where no one goes fast early and they all try to rally late. This synthetic phenomenon skews the speed figures.

I know this, thats my point, when you see these figures of horses at Santa Anita you cant really judge them based on them like you would other dirt horses because they are very arbitrary. There is a whole lot of guessing going on.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I know this, thats my point, when you see these figures of horses at Santa Anita you cant really judge them based on them like you would other dirt horses because they are very arbitrary. There is a whole lot of guessing going on.

it's not a dirt track. that would be the same as comparing turf to dirt; an exercise in futility.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Danzig

it's not a dirt track. that would be the same as comparing turf to dirt; an exercise in futility.

but they are being compared all the time, on the triple crown we are hearing horses like Pioneer of the Nile is a nag and to slow, just look at the figures for the Futurity and the Lewis.

[Travis Stone]

I think one of the differentiators is when these horses move to dirt and are forced to run more "dirt-like" than the turf style of sit and run. The "How was the figure earned?" approach...

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think one of the differentiators is when these horses move to dirt and are forced to run more "dirt-like" than the turf style of sit and run. The "How was the figure earned?" approach...

this I agree with, the way the races are run has such a dramatic effect on final time that comparing final times without that element is a complete waste, yet I hear handicapper after handicapper comparing figures without even putting the efforts into context, and worse yet comparing abilities to dirt horses.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

this I agree with, the way the races are run has such a dramatic effect on final time that comparing final times without that element is a complete waste, yet I hear handicapper after handicapper comparing figures without even putting the efforts into context, and worse yet comparing abilities to dirt horses.

I guess in this case you are using the word " handicapper " loosely.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

but they are being compared all the time, on the triple crown we are hearing horses like Pioneer of the Nile is a nag and to slow, just look at the figures for the Futurity and the Lewis.

The reason Pioneer of the Nile is the most absurd possible Derby horse is that he can't run on the dirt. He is a mediocre turf horse, running on a turf course, that his competition can't particularly handle. My God, Bittel Road finished less than two lengths behind him. Take a step back and look at what is going on here.

And don't give me that " how do we know he can't run on the dirt " crap. We know.....because they know.

The bottom line is that this surface has particularly destroyed the TC prep season. One, it has elevated mediocre turf horses and fooled some people into thinking they are talented dirt horses, two, it has hampered dirt horses from actually getting to showcase their true talents, and three it has made the process of analyzing these preps virtually impossible. But, one thing it hasn't done, is made Pioneer of the Nile a true TC contender.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The reason Pioneer of the Nile is the most absurd possible Derby horse is that he can't run on the dirt. He is a mediocre turf horse, running on a turf course, that his competition can't particularly handle. My God, Bittel Road finished less than two lengths behind him. Take a step back and look at what is going on here.

And don't give me that " how do we know he can't run on the dirt " crap. We know.....because they know.

The bottom line is that this surface has particularly destroyed the TC prep season. One, it has elevated mediocre turf horses and fooled some people into thinking they are talented dirt horses, two, it has hampered dirt horses from actually getting to showcase their true talents, and three it has made the process of analyzing these preps virtually impossible. But, one thing it hasn't done, is made Pioneer of the Nile a true TC contender.

I just used him as a name horse but you finally echoed my point, if its so impossible why do people continue to do it, they certainly are guessing when making the figures?

"it has made the process of analyzing these preps virtually impossible."

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I just used him as a name horse but you finally echoed my point, if its so impossible why do people continue to do it, they certainly are guessing when making the figures?

"it has made the process of analyzing these preps virtually impossible."

it doesn't make it impossible. it is impossible to project a dirt beyer based on an awt beyer, but it doesn't make it impossible when POTN runs only on AWT.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The bottom line is that this surface has particularly destroyed the TC prep season. One, it has elevated mediocre turf horses and fooled some people into thinking they are talented dirt horses, two, it has hampered dirt horses from actually getting to showcase their true talents, and three it has made the process of analyzing these preps virtually impossible.

If you look at last year's Kentucky Derby, there were seven horses who won a race over synthetics and were largely considered synthetic horses. They finished 6th, 9th, 13th, 16th, 17th, 19th and 20th. Fairly interesting.

The lone exception would be Gayego, as he ran well on the dirt in the Arkansas Derby. On the flip side, Recapturetheglory lost his first two career races at Arlington (Polytrack) and then rattled off four good efforts in a row before running extremely well to finish fifth in the Derby itself.

It's a different surface, and should be treated as such.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

If you look at last year's Kentucky Derby, there were seven horses who won a race over synthetics and were largely considered synthetic horses. They finished 6th, 9th, 13th, 16th, 17th, 19th and 20th. Fairly interesting.

The lone exception would be Gayego, as he ran well on the dirt in the Arkansas Derby. On the flip side, Recapturetheglory lost his first two career races at Arlington (Polytrack) and then rattled off four good efforts in a row before running extremely well to finish fifth in the Derby itself.

It's a different surface, and should be treated as such.

Last year I don't think any of the synthetic horses were very good, to point out one of those horses did win the Travers (and suddenly got faster doing it).

[King Glorious]

I think it's pretty clear that turf horses can perform well on the synthetics. The BC should have ended that debate. But I feel like the mistake some people are making is assuming automatically that horses that perform on sythetics can't or won't be able to continue to do well on dirt. Last year alone, we saw:

-Zenyatta, Indian Blessing, Intangaroo, Cocoa Beach, Midnight Lute, Black Seventeen, Colonel John, Tiago

All of them were horses that showed they could win big races on both surfaces. Albertus Maximus just went to Florida and won the Donn. My point is that to say that you'll keep a reserved opinion on any horse that has yet to perform on dirt is completely logical. To say unequivically (sp) that one can't do it before they've even tried it is not logical.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The reason Pioneer of the Nile is the most absurd possible Derby horse is that he can't run on the dirt. He is a mediocre turf horse, running on a turf course, that his competition can't particularly handle. My God, Bittel Road finished less than two lengths behind him. Take a step back and look at what is going on here.

And don't give me that " how do we know he can't run on the dirt " crap. We know.....because they know.

The bottom line is that this surface has particularly destroyed the TC prep season. One, it has elevated mediocre turf horses and fooled some people into thinking they are talented dirt horses, two, it has hampered dirt horses from actually getting to showcase their true talents, and three it has made the process of analyzing these preps virtually impossible. But, one thing it hasn't done, is made Pioneer of the Nile a true TC contender.

very true!
if anything, california has removed themselves from triple crown contention. if you have a legit contender, you have no alternative except to ship, as a dirt horse can't get graded earnings on a surface he doesn't like.

the people making mistakes with beyers are those thinking a horse getting a 94 on awt is going to produce a 94 on dirt.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Danzig

the people making mistakes with beyers are those thinking a horse getting a 94 on awt is going to produce a 94 on dirt.

There is no real correlation. If it's a dirt horse that happens to handle the synthetic surface, the figure will be higher on the dirt, and if it's a turf horse that won't handle dirt, then the figure has no predictive power for future dirt races. The horses that won on synthetics that later won dirt races were hampered by the synthetics, in all likelihood, whether they won on them or not. As an extreme, look at Zenyatta. Her dirt race last year was far and away her most impressive win. It's a shame we can't see her really strut her stuff on the dirt. It might be extremely exciting....as she may well be being muted running only on synthetics.